System Trading Journal

Quote from wally_:



Well, I am out with 18 pts already so I guess I can afford to gamble now. My gamble is: we will move past it, so that I can add another 15 pts :cool: .

OK, that's kinda wishful thinking, but one thing I noticed it is that when my systems give strong unequivocal signals you should excpect a big move. Last time this happened on November 1st, see the chart :) .
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Let me know when you get one of these signals again and I'll up my contracts. :D
 
11/20/2002

Trade #1 Skipped the first system trade which was short at yesterday’s close of 898.00. This trade would’ve resulted in a loss of 2.75 points. I’m skipping these because they are continually losing this month.

Trade #2 Went long @ 900.75 and finally got a little trend to follow. Held until trailing stops hit at an average price of 912.00 for a gain of (11.25 x 2 x 50=$1,125). A good trend is 20-30 points, but I’m not complaining.


ACTUAL
Daily gain/(loss) $1,115.20 (inc. 9.80 of commish)
Monthly gain/(loss) ($4,384.70) –4.385%
Daily ES Points = 11.25 per contract
Monthly ES Points = (17.25) per contract

SYSTEM
Daily gain/(loss) $830.40 (inc. 19.60 of commish)
Monthly gain/(loss) ($745.80) –.0746%
Daily ES Points = 8.50 per contract
Monthly ES Points = 9.00 per contract
 
Quote from ddefina:



Let me know when you get one of these signals again and I'll up my contracts. :D
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One of those signals was also on October 10th !!!
I am saying this in retrospect because I was not trading these systems then, but it does look that when combined together they give you a big predictive power.

Well, we hit 918. I am waiting for my MOC sell order to be filled.
 
Quote from ElCubano:

good day...congrats.....it looks like you beat ur system today....
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Thanks, pretty rare event. I skipped first trade is the reason I beat it.

No trades yet this morning. I need to get a gap trade going, because too many of these are following through lately. Waiting for the breakdown during the noon hour to enter short.
 
11/21/2002

Trade #1 Went short at an average price of 928.33 around lunch time, and was forced to cover at 934.00 for a loss of (5.67 x 3 x 50=($850.50).. Darn market would not quit going up today.

Trade #2 Went long @ an average price of 932.00 and held for an average price of 934.91, for a gain of (2.91 x 3 x 50=$436.50)..

Trade #3 Went short again @ an average price of 928.75 and covered @ 933.50, for a loss of (4.75 x 2 x 50=$475.00).. This was the last half hour of day.

I used two contracts initially to enter trades and then added a third as the price moved against me. This combined with taking profits on trade #2, which if held according to the system would’ve resulted in a loss, gave me a $1,000 advantage over the system. I took profits on trade #2 because the price wouldn’t budge and the tick was at its peak. I overrode the system because things weren’t acting normally and I was going to get out and quit, but decided to take trade #3 to get back to profitability. This third trade resulted in getting in at almost the worst time again and I knew I was screwed. Did the retirees come out of the wood work and start buying again?

ACTUAL
Daily gain/(loss) ($924.90) (inc. 49.90 of commish)
Monthly gain/(loss) ($5,309.60) –5.31%
Daily ES Points = (7.51) per contract
Monthly ES Points = (24.76) per contract

SYSTEM
Daily gain/(loss) ($1,924.90) (inc. 49.90 of commish)
Monthly gain/(loss) ($2,670.70) –.2.67%
Daily ES Points = (14) per contract
Monthly ES Points = (5) per contract
 
I was looking for the profittaking to hit in the afternoon also. But it just never did.

I have no clue what tomorrow will bring. On the one hand we broke through a lot of overhead resistance today. On the other hand, we're getting pretty extended on the upside.
 
Quote from ddefina:

I overrode the system because things weren’t acting normally and I was going to get out and quit, but decided to take trade #3 to get back to profitability.
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So you took this trade not because it was worth taking but because you wanted to get your money back?

--Db
 
Quote from dbphoenix:



So you took this trade not because it was worth taking but because you wanted to get your money back?

--Db
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It was a trade from my system so I should've taken it. Since things weren't acting normally up to that point, I was going to call it a day with a small loss, but not wanting to miss out on a redeeming trade I followed the system. From now on I'm not trading against a trend day, it's not worth it. That will become an addendum to my system rules.

I'm going to start trading the gaps as well--if the first 30 minute bar is broken in the direction of the gap, I'll wait for a 50% pullback and enter in its direction. My testing showed no profitability of entering a tick above the 30-minute bar, but getting a better price should make it profitable. So two addendum's today to my rules.
 
Be careful of too many addenda. I've been down that road. If you had entered on a breakout of the 30m bar and left it alone, you would have done quite well.

--Db
 
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