System Trading Journal

[ddefina]

That's an idea Wally. Take a couple contracts and take all signals. If it moves against, but not to the stops, then add another. It's hard to tell if this would improve or decrease the performance? Some months the breakouts are so strong there is no chance of getting in later, but this month there's been plenty of better entry points on each trade. I'll have to ponder that one. Thanks.

Quote from wally_:



Or you could let the system do its job and trade in a discretionary way only to improve its performance when you think you can do it. For example, your system tells you to go long and you do so, but soon find yourself in a situation that you are temporarily down, say 6 pts, and your stop-loss is 9 pts (the actual today's case of one of my systems that does very well), and you think that you can buy another lot because you see signs that the market reached the daily bottom. Yes, you may call it averaging down, but as long as you are confident that the system has called the market direction right, I would call it an act of confidence in your system. And of course, you would exit with two lots when your original stop-loss is violated.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from ddefina:

I'm sitting here with a 9 point profit on 2 contracts, but my system says hold still. With 9 points being an amazing move in this market it's tough to sit still and not sell. But in the interest of following my system, I've moved my stops to a tick above breakeven awaiting the next signal.

When there is substantial resistance coming up, have you considered raising your stop to the last reaction low rather than run the risk of having price dribble all the way back to your entry price?

--Db

 

[acrary]

Sit tight -- this is a trend day. If you must, move the stop to under the 20 period MA on the 5 min. chart. Trend days usually bounce along the trend line all day. Should get a test now.

 

[ddefina]

Quote from dbphoenix:



When there is substantial resistance coming up, have you considered raising your stop to the last reaction low rather than run the risk of having price dribble all the way back to your entry price?

--Db

I do move my stops just as you say. My rule has been a 5-point reversal and then retest of S/R constitutes a pivot point at the low of the reversal for longs. The 5-point reversal I believe is too large for this market, and yesterday left me long when I should've flipped at 900.75 (if I had used a 4-point reversal). I currently have my stops at 904.75, below a round number and strong resistance yesterday.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from ddefina:



I do move my stops just as you say. My rule has been a 5-point reversal and then retest of S/R constitutes a pivot point at the low of the reversal for longs. The 5-point reversal I believe is too large for this market, and yesterday left me long when I should've flipped at 900.75 (if I had used a 4-point reversal). I currently have my stops at 904.75, below a round number and strong resistance yesterday.

As you approach your target, you might also want to consider an end-of-bar stop rather than a fixed number of points.

--Db

 

[TriPack]

Consider a 3:30 PM Eastern stop. It often has a good sized pullback at around that time, especially on the first up trend day in the cycle.

 

[ddefina]

Quote from dbphoenix:



As you approach your target, you might also want to consider an end-of-bar stop rather than a fixed number of points.

--Db

Towards the end of day, I use the bottom of the 30-minute bars to trail with, eventually cutting the bars in half towards the very end.

 

[ddefina]

915 on the ES must be very intimidating, as the index plummeted quickly after touching it. We either break through hard or this is the HOD.

 

[wally_]

Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

wally,

oh no, you may have launched another 45 posts on everybody's favorite topic, to double up or not.

This is not exactly what I meant. It was only an example. Another example was given by me in the thread 'The importance of simplicity' where I mentioned that I would go long at 895.5 today in the morning. One of the reasons to do it was that two of the three mechanical systems that I use were telling me to go long, and there was a nice setup developing at that time that would give me a reliable entry with a 2 pt stop loss and a target of 6 pts.

However, since I do not take discretionary trades I did not take that trade. Still, I believe that your discretionary trades should not contradict your mechanical system but rather they should be aimed at enhancing it.

 

[wally_]

Quote from ddefina:

915 on the ES must be very intimidating, as the index plummeted quickly after touching it. We either break through hard or this is the HOD.

Well, I am out with 18 pts already so I guess I can afford to gamble now. My gamble is: we will move past it, so that I can add another 15 pts .

OK, that's kinda wishful thinking, but one thing I noticed it is that when my systems give strong unequivocal signals you should excpect a big move. Last time this happened on November 1st, see the chart .