System longengevity? How long can a decent system last on average?

mdl060374 · Nov 20, 2003

for those of you who have made $$ using a system, on average, how long do they last for?

Since th market is always evolving, do they need to be overhauled every couple of months, or does it take years for a system to become obsolete?

Obviously, each person's mileage will vary, I am trying to get an estimate..

lindq · Nov 20, 2003

Quote from mdl060374:

for those of you who have made $$ using a system, on average, how long do they last for?

Since th market is always evolving, do they need to be overhauled every couple of months, or does it take years for a system to become obsolete?

Obviously, each person's mileage will vary, I am trying to get an estimate..

There is no way to provide an estimate, because there are so many different approaches to the market. And many good systems can be tweaked indefinitely, while still retaining basic characteristics. For example, a system that requires a certain amount of volatility to do well, as many do, can be tweaked to respond to varying levels of volatility. But the basic logic of the system will remain the same.

CONTRARIAN · Nov 20, 2003

Quote from lindq:

There is no way to provide an estimate, because there are so many different approaches to the market. And many good systems can be tweaked indefinitely, while still retaining basic characteristics. For example, a system that requires a certain amount of volatility to do well, as many do, can be tweaked to respond to varying levels of volatility. But the basic logic of the system will remain the same.

Very well said. took the words right out of my mouth.
I have nothing more to ad.

Great comment lindq.

momotrdr · Nov 20, 2003

Quote from lindq:

There is no way to provide an estimate, because there are so many different approaches to the market. And many good systems can be tweaked indefinitely, while still retaining basic characteristics. For example, a system that requires a certain amount of volatility to do well, as many do, can be tweaked to respond to varying levels of volatility. But the basic logic of the system will remain the same.

DITTO.

vanilla2 · Nov 20, 2003

i'm interested in this topic as well. i completely understand, 'systems' represents a very broad set of criteria to generalize as it includes tactics, timeframes, markets, etc. i understand there is no fix-all answer.

given that, could anyone who's traded and retired systems provide a highly general example of a system that was once extremely robust, and eventually expired completely, how long it took, how obvious was its end, possible reasons for maturation, etc?

dbphoenix · Nov 20, 2003

It's not so much a matter of having "A" strategy that sees you through thick and thin but of having a variety of strategies to choose from and apply depending on the nature of the market.

There are only three types of trades: breakouts, retracements, and reversals. As long as you have a strategy you like for each of these, you can move from one to another and even combine elements of one with the basics of another to adapt to almost any market.

amigasearch · Nov 20, 2003

db, can you tell me in your opinion of course, what type of market do you believe we are in now (of the three you speak of).

Runningbear · Nov 20, 2003

The Turtles system is an example of a system that used to perform well but has been less than successful in recent years.

Some say it worked well during high inflation years because the swings were much bigger.

Others have expanded the breakout period to 40 days, instead of 20, to try and make it profitable.

Runningbear

Bob111 · Nov 20, 2003

Quote from dbphoenix:

There are only three types of trades: breakouts, retracements, and reversals. As long as you have a strategy you like for each of these, you can move from one to another and even combine elements of one with the basics of another to adapt to almost any market.

desagree. i been trading my own system for more than year, based on EOD range,volume,price. only one day holding period,but it give me 65% chance, that price will go my way on next day.
no reversals,breakeouts or whatever. stop and target defined before entry.
been tested on more than 10 years of history-all profitable. more than 7000 trades. is this enough to be proven?))))))))))))))))

oddiduro · Nov 20, 2003

Quote from mdl060374:

for those of you who have made $$ using a system, on average, how long do they last for?

Since th market is always evolving, do they need to be overhauled every couple of months, or does it take years for a system to become obsolete?

Obviously, each person's mileage will vary, I am trying to get an estimate..

I depends on the type of system and the cyclical behavior of your particular market, do you have any parameters?