System Development with acrary

[JackR]

A minor correction was made to add acrary's remarks to the bottom.

Jack


[LATER EDIT by Magna:] At JackR's request his earlier post/spreadsheet was removed.

 

[mogul]

welcome back!!!

 

[Drock409]

acray...if u mind me asking
what platform do you use to backtest all ur hypothesis

 

[Walther]

Quote from acrary:


For example, if I have a system with a profit factor of 1.50 and it trades 50 times per-month then I'd expect this system by itself to be profitable about 89% of the time. If I wanted the system to be profitable 95% of the time I can see I'd have to increase the trading frequency to about 90 trades per-month.

.

Nice to see you back .
Just a little caution for beginners. Above example does not apply to real trading exactly as is written.

 

[virgin]

Walther,



Please elaborate..

 

[man]

Quote from acrary:

Sorry, but I have to cut this journal short. I've asked Magna to close it.

I was offered a head trader position with a obscene compensation package over the weekend. I didn't think I'd want to work for anyone else again, but I guess we all have our price.

One of the conditions is the end of public communications. This is necessarily my last post on ET.

Take care and good luck.

Alan

alan

what happened? didn't lift off? anyways ... hope you won't get pm-swamped (knowing you will ...).

how is your trading doing in low vola country? still trading the dax?

peace

 

[sunnyskies]

acrary, welcome back man. this thread is still all-time best in ET history.

 

[nzbryant]

Acrary

Welcome back - you are a legend. I hope the paid position went well.

 

[acrary]

Quote from Drock409:

acray...if u mind me asking
what platform do you use to backtest all ur hypothesis

I developed all of my analysis software.
The only canned package I still use is Tradestation for automating the strategies.

 

[acrary]

Quote from Walther:

Nice to see you back .
Just a little caution for beginners. Above example does not apply to real trading exactly as is written.

It's not supposed to be used to predict real trading. It's value is in helping to decide where to spend your development time. The primary limitation is that it reflects a normal distribution of trades about the mean. Every system will have a different distribution. Here's a system with a normal distribution (like in the table).

50 Trades
150 mean winner
100 mean loser