Switching Lanes

[Sprout]

Guys you are replying to a damn robot! Stop this!

I'm so sick of these threads that start off with an open ended robot question and then you all chirp in with questionable advice,

Bonds? <-- They are going to crash.

Do you realize that each of your clicks could of been applied to House Of Gummy> And there you will actually find some ideas. Both on how to trade and what to trade.--

The question of luck--

Anybody in this game will tell you it's a game of streaks. You have hot streaks,incredibly hot streak and cold spells and incedibly cold spells. It's somewhat like being a baseball player.

In baseball you only have to hit 4 out of 10 balls safely to be a really good player and in investing the ratio is similar- controlling to some extent your position size on losers vs winners
by trimming losers// adding to gainers on down days / and letting names ride you will find your " luck " changing

Luck is what you make of it-- Look around you what do you see? What are people drinking and eating? What do you see around you when you travel.. What tech do you use and find interesting.

Luck has nothing to do with investing.Nada. But having a Savant moment is everything. A name will just pop in your head and then it's up to you to do the research and put in the time.

1st decide just what type of investor are you. Are you a typical low fruit guy who goes completely in and out of the market wily nilly and probably juggles $50K... or are you a heavy hitter.

and proceeds to answer claimed bot

 

[Laissez Faire]

Guys you are replying to a damn robot! Stop this!

I'm so sick of these threads that start off with an open ended robot question and then you all chirp in with questionable advice.

Plenty of bots here lately, but I'm quite sure the OP is a real human being with > 1500 posts and posting here for a while.

As for the advice given, my view is that most people should be discouraged from pursuing trading, so I disagree when I see some people actually encourage him.

Most people seem to overestimate themselves and underestimate the requirements for trading successfully. As such, most people end up as yet another number in the high failure rate of would-be-traders.

It's very unfortunate for the OP that he spent 15 years before throwing in the towel, but it would be more unfortunate if he spent another 5 or 10 years and still didn't get anywhere.

Good luck with your new life, @Aquarians. I'm sure you'll be better off leaving finance behind.

 

[Aquarians]

.

What are you going to focus on now instead?

Well, I got a new idea, for a business app instead. Won't say much but I'm tapping a huge market. It's obviously got a lot of competition (sellers) but on the plus side there's also a quasi unlimited supply of buyers.

The comparison I make is with food / restaurants. No matter how many restaurants / grocery stores there are, seems like there's always room for another one. But one measly local store won't do much, what can make a difference is notice some edge and use it to scale up, like the difference between a local restaurant and McDonald's.

Reason I was attracted to trading is that unlike a regular job, it's not bound to the number of hours worked - most desirable property is that it can scale up.

This new thing I found can also scale up and unlike trading it doesn't have like a hundred million players all determined to beat the system. Although it does have a hundred million players.

Overall I'm just following Scott Adams's career advice: rather than try to become 1% (0r 0.1%) at the top of one horribly competitive domain (trading), be top 25% (or 10%) at the top of 2-3 domains and do your business at the intersection of those. We'll see how it goes but I feel I have a real shot with this new avenue and don't wanna waste another second in the fruitless "beat the casino" game.

 

[Aquarians]

Truly smart people do not brag about their IQ.

They do when they're drunk (especially when "drunk" is an understatement)

 

[Aquarians]

Plenty of bots here lately, but I'm quite sure the OP is a real human being with > 1500 posts and posting here for a while.

As for the advice given, my view is that most people should be discouraged from pursuing trading, so I disagree when I see some people actually encourage him.

Most people seem to overestimate themselves and underestimate the requirements for trading successfully. As such, most people end up as yet another number in the high failure rate of would-be-traders.

It's very unfortunate for the OP that he spent 15 years before throwing in the towel, but it would be more unfortunate if he spent another 5 or 10 years and still didn't get anywhere.

Good luck with your new life, @Aquarians. I'm sure you'll be better off leaving finance behind.

Thanks, Laissez Faire, you get it quite well.

If I wouldn't have gotten this other business idea, I might still be pursuing trading. It's not I didn't try to find alternative ideas but nothing so far was compelling enough. Dropshipping site, social media app ... all too low probability of success to be worth getting into.

I suspect success in finance is also a matter of luck. Like a business idea, there's a million ways you can try and most will end up in failure. If you aren't lucky to fall upon one that has potential, most likely all the effort will be in vain.

And I don't know how this career advice would apply to trading but it's definitely useful outside of it:

"If you want an average successful life, it doesn’t take much planning. Just stay out of trouble, go to school, and apply for jobs you might like. But if you want something extraordinary, you have two paths:

1. Become the best at one specific thing.
2. Become very good (top 25%) at two or more things.

The first strategy is difficult to the point of near impossibility. Few people will ever play in the NBA or make a platinum album. I don’t recommend anyone even try.

The second strategy is fairly easy."

https://dilbertblog.typepad.com/the_dilbert_blog/2007/07/career-advice.html

 

[TheDawn]

Plenty of bots here lately, but I'm quite sure the OP is a real human being with > 1500 posts and posting here for a while.

As for the advice given, my view is that most people should be discouraged from pursuing trading, so I disagree when I see some people actually encourage him.

Most people seem to overestimate themselves and underestimate the requirements for trading successfully. As such, most people end up as yet another number in the high failure rate of would-be-traders.

It's very unfortunate for the OP that he spent 15 years before throwing in the towel, but it would be more unfortunate if he spent another 5 or 10 years and still didn't get anywhere.

Good luck with your new life, @Aquarians. I'm sure you'll be better off leaving finance behind.

And besides we will all be responding to bots very soon. ChatGPT is just a start.

 

[Laissez Faire]

I suspect success in finance is also a matter of luck. Like a business idea, there's a million ways you can try and most will end up in failure. If you aren't lucky to fall upon one that has potential, most likely all the effort will be in vain.

Definitely, but many will not admit it.

You can get lucky by stumbling across some important pieces in your research or you can get lucky getting in touch with the right people and for the fortunate few maybe a successful mentor who can guide you.

There's also luck involved in your actual trading. Maybe you start out trading in a very easy market regime or one which suits your methodology and can build a small fortune with an easy strategy.

I have a friend who became fairly rich mostly investing (buy and hold) which started out exactly when QE first started preceding the bull trend which started over 10 years ago now. It would have been a different outcome if he started out in some other period.

Luck alone won't guarantee long term success of course, but it could definitely make or break a would-be-trader who's trying to get started in this field.

 

[volpri]

We create and mold our own reality. In trading or in any other endeavor we attempt. We learn the things we have to learn to be successful. We do the things we have to do to be successful. We find the opportunities we have to find to be successful. We learn from our mistakes and change. We transcend every difficulty and challenge no matter how big they seem. We persist when it looks like total failure in front of us even if we have to adapt. We never ever “give” up or we are finished.

Life is a fight, a struggle, a challenge, a journey to be enjoyed and relished, even in our failures. Never attribute ANYTHING to fate or luck or coincidence. Never blame anyone else for our failures in business. It is our business. We are in control. We can adapt and we can get successful. We can learn what we have to learn to be successful. We can do what we have to do to be successful. PERSISTENCE IS KEY.

I think it was Henry Ford who said “the harder I work the luckier I get”.

In trading, especially in trading, if we aren’t successful it is no one’s fault. We just simply are not yet good enough. The sooner we can accept that then persist…learn more…adapt better…practice more…condition our mind better…train ourselves to act and respond as events unfold live then IF we PERSIST, sooner or later we will find the success we are looking for. Often we will have to go against orthodoxy. If stats are correct and most traders fail and they are following the vendors that abound then much of the stuff being taught doesn’t work OR the skillful implementation of it has not yet been learn.

Regardless of what anyone says trading IS NOT simple nor easy or we would all make it. But there are some that DO make it in trading and become successful in trading or trading would have long disappeared from the scene as a viable enterprise. Ever ask yourself why some make it and others don’t?

We have to put in the study…the work…the time…the honing of skills…the psychology (this is a hard one) …the practice …before we submit great sums of money to the market to extract even more money. Start small and learn…practice…adapt..correct..…get good before going big. Simulators are good for practice although not exactly the same as real trading. But they can be used to hone skills. Just whatever amount you are looking to capture from a trade add two ticks to it. One for entry and one for for exit as price will have to trade through it. For instance, to give a simple example in ES. If you are looking to capture 1 point in real trading you will need to practice on a SIM capturing 6 tick move which in real trading will end up being a 1 point or 4 tick profit. Want to capture 3 points need to practice on Sim capturing 14 ticks. SIM is useful in some things..honing skills..discovering what will work for you or not work for you..etc. The psychological part if trading comes into play big time when one goes live. BUT IF YOU CAN’T make it work on a SIM you certainly won’t make it work with real money! Why throw real money at the market if one can’t make it work on a SIM?

 

[Slope Trader]

. Overall I'm just following Scott Adams's career advice: rather than try to become 1% (0r 0.1%) at the top of one horribly competitive domain (trading), be top 25% (or 10%) at the top of 2-3 domains and do your business at the intersection of those.

I like this advice too. In addition to his suggestions about building a talent stack and using systems instead of goals, Adams also says to stay active and keep trying new ideas in order to put yourself in the best possible position for luck to find you.

It sounds like you're doing the right things... hope that luck is able to find you.

 

[volpri]

Nothing we ever go thru is wasted; unless we waste it.