I found out a bit through more backtesting where things went wrong this week.
I can only guess at what “pullback till ema20 on the 5M with engulfer with the general trend” means, but when you wrote “long 1.2759 in gbpusd” I had to wonder, “Why would he go long at the top of the pair’s day range?”
I don’t know how much market structure figures into your decision-making process, but, for example, now that GBPUSD is down at 1.2731, it would seem to me to make much more sense to go long somewhere in this neighborhood.
Personally, I would not go long
yet, because the rate is still dropping. But if and when the moving averages gave me their permission, I might consider it. (Though at 1.2731, GBPUSD
does have what I think of as minor statistical support.)
In terms of the broader structure however, I’m assigning what I call "major" statistical support at 1.2725, increasing in strength all the way down to 1.2714.
I see “monster support” in the region between 1.2681 down to 1.2628, but I wouldn’t expect the rate to drop that low unless the pair was bearish, which it currently is not.
In a nutshell, as of Friday’s close, I’m conceptualizing the “recreation area” in which GBPUSD has been given to play as basically stretching between 1.2725 up to 1.2755, with a lot more room for the pair to climb than to fall.
Still, the market can do whatever it likes, so I would
never enter a long position until price is
actually rising.
(For whatever it’s worth, or if worthless, just ignore all the above as a bunch of baloney.)
