Swing trading with Butterflies

Global OptionsTrades said:
...It feels wrong to be shorting Nasdaq, but I'm taking comfort that this acts as a partial hedge against a long stock portfolio...
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It was!

A disappointing start to the month. Closed these at a loss.

Trade date: 25 April 2023
Security: NQ
Price at opening: 12,997.00
Structure: ItM/AtM Put Debit Spread
Expiry date: 19 May 2023
Strikes: 13000 / 13300
Opening Spread: 159.50
Close date: 02 May 2023
Trade duration: 7
Closing spread: 104.00
Profit / (Loss): -55.50
Profit / (Loss): -34.8%

Trade date: 28 April 2023
Security: ZB
Price at opening: 130.90
Structure: ItM/AtM Call Debit Spread
Expiry date: 12 May 2023
Strikes: 129.5 / 131
Opening Spread: 0.91
Close date: 01 May 2023
Trade duration: 3
Closing spread: 0.72
Profit / (Loss): -0.19
Profit / (Loss): -20.7%

Trade date: 28 April 2023
Security: ES
Price at opening: 4,139.00
Structure: ItM/AtM Put Debit Spread
Expiry date: 16 May 2023
Strikes: 4140 / 4190
Opening Spread: 23.75
Close date: 02 May 2023
Trade duration: 4
Closing spread: 18.50
Profit / (Loss): -5.25
Profit / (Loss): -22.1%

and opened a long position on S&P500:

Trade date: 02 May 2023
Security: ES
Price at opening: 4,174.00
Structure: ItM/AtM Call Debit Spread
Expiry date: 02 June 2023
Strikes: 4100 / 4175
Opening Spread: 52.25
 
Turned the S&P500 trade around and re-entered the Treasury Bond long position.

Trade date: 02 May 2023
Security: ES
Price at opening: 4,174.00
Structure: ItM/AtM Call Debit Spread
Expiry date: 02 June 2023
Strikes: 4100 / 4175
Opening Spread: 52.25
Close date: 05 May 2023
Trade duration: 3
Closing spread: 45.75
Profit / (Loss): -6.50
Profit / (Loss): -12.4%

Trade date: 05 May 2023
Security: ES
Price at opening: 4,134.00
Structure: ItM/AtM Put Debit Spread
Expiry date: 02 June 2023
Strikes: 4130 / 4230
Opening Spread: 49.75

Trade date: 05 May 2023
Security: ZB
Price at opening: 131.00
Structure: ItM/AtM Call Debit Spread
Expiry date: 19 May 2023
Strikes: 128.5 / 131
Opening Spread: 1.61
 
Set-Ups have been scarce for Calendars, but opened a spread today to close before the weekend.

Didn't get a great fill on this which will impact any profit.

Trade date: 16 May 2023
Security: NQ
Price at opening: 13441.0
Direction: Put
Expiry date (short side): 19 May 2023
Implied Vol (short side) 16.0%
Expiry date (long side): 22 May 2023
Implied Vol (long side) 13.9%
Strikes: 13450
Opening Spread: 15.75
 
I'm like the opposite of Midas this month.

Closed directional positions (#372) at a loss.

Trade date: 05 May 2023
Security: ZB
Price at opening: 131.00
Structure: ItM/AtM Call Debit Spread
Expiry date: 19 May 2023
Strikes: 128.5 / 131
Opening Spread: 1.61
Close date: 18 May 2023
Trade duration: 13
Closing spread: 1.13
Profit / (Loss): -0.48
Profit / (Loss): -30.1%

Trade date: 05 May 2023
Security: ES
Price at opening: 4,134.00
Structure: ItM/AtM Put Debit Spread
Expiry date: 02 June 2023
Strikes: 4130 / 4230
Opening Spread: 49.75
Close date: 22 May 2023
Trade duration: 17
Closing spread: 32.5
Profit / (Loss): -17.25
Profit / (Loss): -34.7%

Also closed the Calendar position (#373) at a loss after Nasdaq climbed 500 points.

Trade date: 16 May 2023
Security: NQ
Price at opening: 13441.0
Direction: Put
Expiry date (short side): 19 May 2023
Implied Vol (short side) 16.0%
Expiry date (long side): 22 May 2023
Implied Vol (long side) 13.9%
Strikes: 13450
Opening Spread: 15.75
Close date: 19 May 2023
Trade duration: 3
Closing spread: 2.75
Profit / (Loss): -13.00
Profit / (Loss): -82.5%

Some experimental volatility trades have been profitable but not sufficiently to offset losses on these while I ramp up position size.

Opened a long directional position on Russell 2000 on Friday.

Trade date: 19 May 2023
Security: RTY
Price at opening: 1,788.00
Structure: ItM/AtM Put Debit Spread
Expiry date: 02 June 2023
Strikes: 4130 / 4230
Opening Spread: 31.50
 
Finally got a couple of profitable trades to pop in here.

Trade date: 15 May 2023
Security: GBP
Price at opening: 1.2515
Structure: ItM/AtM Put Debit Spread
Expiry date: 09 June 2023
Strikes: 1.25 / 1.2675
Opening Spread: 0.0105
Close date: 23 May 2023
Trade duration: 8
Closing spread: 0.0144
Profit / (Loss): 0.0039
Profit / (Loss): 37.1%

Trade date: 19 May 2023
Security: RTY
Price at opening: 1788.00
Structure: ItM/AtM Call Debit Spread
Expiry date: 02 June 2023
Strikes: 1740 / 1790
Opening Spread: 31.50
Close date: 23 May 2023
Trade duration: 4
Closing spread: 41.50
Profit / (Loss): 10.00
Profit / (Loss): 31.7%

Opened a Calendar on Nasdaq yesterday.

Trade date: 23 May 2023
Security: NQ
Price at opening: 13848.0
Direction: Put
Expiry date (short side): 26 May 2023
Implied Vol (short side): 17.4%
Expiry date (long side): 30 May 2023
Implied Vol (long side): 14.4%
Strikes: 13850
Opening Spread: 21.75
 
Closing orders filled for the Nasdaq Calendar spread yesterday and overnight.

Trade date: 23 May 2023
Security: NQ
Price at opening: 13848.0
Direction: Put
Expiry date (short side): 26 May 2023
Implied Vol (short side): 17.4%
Expiry date (long side): 30 May 2023
Implied Vol (long side): 14.4%
Strikes: 13850
Opening Spread: 21.75
Close date: 26 May 2023
Trade duration: 3
Closing spread: 34.25
Profit / (Loss): 12.50
Profit / (Loss): 57.5%
 
Global OptionsTrades said:
Closing orders filled for the Nasdaq Calendar spread yesterday and overnight.

Trade date: 23 May 2023
Security: NQ
Price at opening: 13848.0
Direction: Put
Expiry date (short side): 26 May 2023
Implied Vol (short side): 17.4%
Expiry date (long side): 30 May 2023
Implied Vol (long side): 14.4%
Strikes: 13850
Opening Spread: 21.75
Close date: 26 May 2023
Trade duration: 3
Closing spread: 34.25
Profit / (Loss): 12.50
Profit / (Loss): 57.5%
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Why is the implied vol so different? Was it due to fed event? Does that mean you were neutral / slightly bullish going into the fed event?
 
I would like to be able to tell you why, but the truth is my guess is only as good as anybody else's.

The critical aspect is that I care much less about the the reason(s) underpinning the difference than I care about attempting to exploit the difference! :D

Perhaps a slightly less flippant response is this trade is one of many positions that are variously directional or set up to harvest falling volatility and/or theta decay over a range of timeframes. I remain bullish overall on (US) equities on a 28-day timeframe if that helps.
 
Opened a long directional position on oil.

I got a signal at Wednesday's close (>USD74) but due to other commitments wasn't able to open the position yesterday. The drop yeterday worked in my favour.

Trade date: 26 May 2023
Security: CL
Price at opening: 71.72
Structure: ItM/AtM Call Debit Spread
Expiry date: 14 June 2023
Strikes: 69.50 / 72
Opening Spread: 1.49
 
Oil fell further below USD70 and I closed this at a loss.

Trade date: 26 May 2023
Security: CL
Price at opening: 71.72
Structure: ItM/AtM Call Debit Spread
Expiry date: 14 June 2023
Strikes: 69.50 / 72
Opening Spread: 1.49
Close date: 31 May 2023
Trade duration: 5
Closing spread: 0.77
Profit / (Loss): -0.72
Profit / (Loss): -48.3%
 
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