Swing trading with Butterflies

Thanks @MrMuppet

I'm not familiar with hedging gamma but would be grateful to explore anything that can improve my Sharpe Ratio further.

Perhaps we could consider an example using a recent losing trade, as I'm unsure how to achieve this in practical terms with c.3DTE?

Last Monday 06 December I opened a Put Fly on RUT (#98). Expiry was Wednesday 08 Dec so with the exception of the contract expiring the same day (06 Dec) there wasn't a shorter maturity than the 08 Dec expiry to use.

On Tuesday I expected it would be a losing trade, and having paid 8.40 for the 30-point spread, it was trading at c.2.0 so I had three choices at that point:
  1. Close it - take the c.75% loss
  2. Leave it open - very limited downside and substantial upside
  3. Adjust it - this is what I think you might be hinting at(?)
But I think you're suggesting I buy cheap, wide wings at the outset and would be grateful for your thoughts on how best to structure that. Hopefully others can also benefit from your insight.
 
So first of all I do not quite understand why you're opening positions that have just a couple of DTE if you're speculating on skew and vol.

Weeklies and dailies are 90% gamma plays, meaning these options have close to no vega because premia are so cheap. Instead they are bets on strike touch and for that you need to have a pretty clear idea on how spot trades.

If you want to bet on vol, you need to trade options that are actually sensitive to vol. It doesn't make any sense to try getting vol exposure by trading an option that has just a couple of cts of $vega.

Buying cheap kickers is one possibility, the other one is buying 3 DTE gamma to hedge a 30 DTE short vol structure if term structure is in contango as skew is to high in low vol environments to justify wing premium. When vol is high, skew flat and term structure backwardated, you can shop for wings and play their vega convexity.

This is the first part.

Second, I'd check gamma/theta ratio, normalize for gamma (because short gamma is your main risk) and compare different DTEs just to get a better understanding.
Yes, 7 DTE has more decay than 60 DTE PER OPTION!!!, but not per gamma. If you have 2cts of $gamma for an option that gives you 10 theta and the other option has 1cts of $gamma but that one gives you 6 theta, the second option has the better risk to reward. Let that sit for a bit.

So trade bigger but more DTE to smooth out your risk profile. If you don't have any idea about spot, it's just a dice roll when you trade 2-7 DTE. Your gamma profile will be all over the place and could flip heavily against you within a couple of index points...that said, you want that when you want to trade direction.

I feel like you need to sit back and do a bit of basic education. Perhaps you build yourself a spread sheet containing a BSM pricer for options so you can tinker with your positions and get an intuitive understanding of what you're actually doing.

IMHO (pls correct me if I'm wrong) you're still not grasping the very basic components of how options react to changes in spot, vol and time. Build that first before you trade either complex positions or simple positions with a complex payouts.
 
Thanks for that; much appreciated and lots to think about.

I actually built a BS model from scratch, and have added your gamma / theta ratio and will see what I can learn from that in next few days.

Your caution is noted, as there is always more to learn. I'll be looking to amend my screening to incorprate securities with greater vega, and then test and backtest to see the effect of switching securities.

Your point on timing is an interesting one. I used to trade 30-50 DTE timeframes, but the shorter 2-4 DTE timeframes seem to be providing reasonably robust returns, but without the hedging opportunity. Outside of the scope of this journal I trade volatility over longer timeframes buying nearer-term OtM protection which I think provides a similar benefit, which was why I was interested to hear thoughts on doing so for the shorter-term positions.
 
Meanwhile, a Nasdaq Put Fly closed very quickly after opening this afternoon, in profit.

Trade date: 13 December 2021
Security: NQ
Price at opening: 16163
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 15 December 2021
Strikes: 15830 / 15950 / 16190
Structure: 2 / 3 / 1
Opening Spread: 36.25
Close date: 13 December 2021
Trade duration: 0
Closing spread: 44.00
Profit / (Loss): 7.75
Profit / (Loss): 21.4%
 
I don't usually open flies with the body so close to spot but opened a DAX Put Fly for expiry on Friday.

Trade date: 14 December 2021
Security: DAX
Price at opening: 15603
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 17 December 2021
Strikes: 15350 / 15550 / 15570
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 47.00

Also re-reading How to Calculate Options Prices & their Greeks by Pierino Ursone, which is proving to be interesting, and hopefully useful.
 
Along with the general sell-off today, my closing orders on the DAX fly opened this morning, filled at European close.

Trade date: 14 December 2021
Security: DAX
Price at opening: 15603
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 17 December 2021
Strikes: 15350 / 15550 / 15570
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 47.00
Close date: 14 December 2021
Trade duration: 0
Closing spread: 59.00
Profit / (Loss): 12.00
Profit / (Loss): 25.5%
 
Placed a couple of trades yesterday.

Trade date: 15 December 2021
Security: CL
Price at opening: 69.87
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 17 December 2021
Strikes: 67.5 / 69.5 / 71.5
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 0.59

Closer to AtM than usual.

Trade date: 15 December 2021
Security: VIX
Price at opening: 22.86
Direction: Call
Expiry date: 21 December 2021
Strikes: 22 / 26 / 28
Structure: 1 / 3 / 2
Opening Spread: 0.39

6 DTE and looking to benefit from any increase in volatility over the weekend.
 
The oil trade closed earlier today in profit.

Trade date: 15 December 2021
Security: CL
Price at opening: 69.87
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 17 December 2021
Strikes: 67.5 / 69.5 / 71.5
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 0.59
Close date: 17 December 2021
Trade duration: 2
Closing spread: 0.69
Profit / (Loss): 0.10
Profit / (Loss): 16.9%
 
This feels slightly ambitious but popped a Put Fly on Oil for this week.

Trade date: 20 December 2021
Security: CL
Price at opening: 66.56
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 23 December 2021
Strikes: 62.5 / 64 / 67
Structure: 2 / 3 / 1
Opening Spread: 0.49
 
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