Swing trading with Butterflies

I missed a couple of downside trade signals at yesterday's close, but assuming we're continuing down for a day or two, I've opened a long trade on VIX today. IV was 150%. Not sure how this one will pan out.

Trade date: 06 October 2021
Security: VIX
Price at opening: 22.83
Direction: Call
Expiry date: 12 October 2021
Strikes: 23 / 25 / 29
Structure: 2 / 3 / 1
Opening Spread: 0.42
 
Took profits on this week's short FTSE position, and will unwind the VIX position today.

Trade date: 04 October 2021
Security: FTSE
Price at opening: 7034
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 08 October 2021
Strikes: 6900 / 7000 / 7100
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 23.00
Close date: 06 October 2021
Trade duration: 2
Closing spread: 31.50
Profit / (Loss): 8.50
Profit / (Loss): 37.0%
 
Added a short position on DAX today.

Trade date: 12 October 2021
Security: DAX
Price at opening: 15136
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 15 October 2021
Strikes: 14900 / 15000 / 15100
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 11.10
 
The VIX Call Fly (#71) expired OtM for a 100% loss. Conviction wasn't strong and it was a smaller position than normal.

My view of the DAX Put Fly (#73) has changed and my model suggests it should be closed. This morning, spread (mid) is 2.0 (less than 20% of what I paid for it) so I'll leave it open in case there is a downturn in Germany between now and close tomorrow.

I opened a short position on Nasdaq yesterday:

Trade date: 13 October 2021
Security: NQ
Price at opening: 14725
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 15 October 2021
Strikes: 14780 / 14630 / 14480
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 9.00

As Nasdaq dropped, orders partially filled at 19. I'll update if/when the remainder fills or expires.
 
The rally towards the end of the week wasn't helpful!

Trade date: 12 October 2021
Security: DAX
Price at opening: 15136
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 15 October 2021
Strikes: 14900 / 15000 / 15100
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 11.10
Close date: 15 October 2021
Trade duration: 3
Closing spread: 0.00
Profit / (Loss): -11.10
Profit / (Loss): -100.0%

Trade date: 13 October 2021
Security: NDX
Price at opening: 14725
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 15 October 2021
Strikes: 14780 / 14630 / 14480
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 9.00
Close date: 15 October 2021
Trade duration: 2
Closing spread: 9.50
Profit / (Loss): 0.50
Profit / (Loss): 5.6%
 
Global OptionsTrades said:
I don't have that info atm but looking back at the last 10 trades, 9 were Puts, and 1 was a Call (on VIX).
More...

All bearish trades ... I know small sample ... but might be worth investigating whether the model is overly biased to picking downside flies as ( if you look back at the Fly Pricing Arc ) downside Flies are relatively cheaper than upside Flies ... but markets tend to have a little positive drift ... just a thought
 
To update, we have discussed that this strategy favours bearish positions, and in the recent bull market, I'm not getting directional entries that meet my criteria to trade and post here.

Thought-provoking questions here and offline from @jamesbp (for which, many thanks) have been very useful, and I've been looking at (and trading) short-duration flies without having a directional rationale, as well as verticals.

I can't rename the thread but will pop some of these trades on here, making it clear that they are not directionally-driven.
 
Non-directional trade. Confidence isn't strong on this at the moment, but looking for 15% on this by Wednesday.

Trade date: 22 November 2021
Security: NDX
Price at opening: 16753
Direction: Call
Expiry date: 24 November 2021
Strikes: 16840 / 16890 / 16940
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 2.60
 
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