Swing trading with Butterflies

I ran a journal here in 2019:
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/global-options-trades.330518/
The first post there provides some background.

In the intervening time, I have continued to read, learn, analyse, backtest, etc and have moved from single long directional positions, through credit and debit spreads, alighting most recently on using butterflies.

One major source of help was @destriero - for which, many thanks - but I have struggled to find a significant edge predicting movement in volatility, or to adjust positions with consistent profitability.

The butterfly structure does seem to work well for my directional views though. I've been following Caroy's Weekly Pin Butterfly Strategy journal with great interest, and although using different methodology, we have taken a similar path in terms of pitfalls and successes. Thanks to @caroy for the insight and inspiration.

I'm continuing to trade options on a range of indices, fx, and oil, but have also recently incorporated some single name stocks.

Timeframes have come down from trade durations of several weeks to between 2 and 20 DTE at opening. I place a range of closing orders, and occasionally, these have filled during the same day. I haven't attempted to trade intraday.

The last 50 trades have produced 39% gross profit (ignoring commission) on VaR (opening spread in the case of symmetrical butterflies).
Average duration has been 5.9 days.

I'll try to pop trades on here on the day that they are opened, and then when closed, and would welcome constructive thoughts, ideas and criticism.
 
Trade date: 15 July 2021
Security: FTSE
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 30 July 2021
Strikes: 6875 / 6950 / 7025
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 8.67

Trade date: 26 July 2021
Security: GBP
Direction: Call
Expiry date: 30 July 2021
Strikes: 1.3725 / 1.38 / 1.3875
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 0.0021

Trade date: 26 July 2021
Security: RUT
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 30 July 2021
Strikes: 2155 / 2185 / 2215
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 4.55

Trade date: 27 July 2021
Security: DAX
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 30 July 2021
Strikes: 15300 / 15400 / 15500
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 9.00

Was distracted for a few hours but these were trades open this morning for expiry today.

I'll add open positions expiring next week on Sunday.
 
Good thread..Would you add the last price to make things a bit easier..

I only trade structures similar to you if I believe I get skew edge/skew Delta.( sticky delta)

Is your approach strictly directional??

Trade date: 15 July 2021
Security: FTSE
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 30 July 2021
Strikes: 6875 / 6950 / 7025
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 8.67

Trade date: 26 July 2021
Security: GBP
Direction: Call
Expiry date: 30 July 2021
Strikes: 1.3725 / 1.38 / 1.3875
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 0.0021

Trade date: 26 July 2021
Security: RUT
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 30 July 2021
Strikes: 2155 / 2185 / 2215
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 4.55

Trade date: 27 July 2021
Security: DAX
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 30 July 2021
Strikes: 15300 / 15400 / 15500
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 9.00

Was distracted for a few hours but these were trades open this morning for expiry today.

I'll add open positions expiring next week on Sunday.
 
Closing positions for Friday expiry:

Trade date: 15 July 2021
Security: FTSE
Price at opening: 7090
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 30 July 2021
Strikes: 6875 / 6950 / 7025
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 8.67
Close date: 30 July 2021
Trade duration: 15
Closing spread: 9.67
Profit / (Loss) 1.00
Profit / (Loss) 11.5%

Trade date: 26 July 2021
Security: GBP
Price at opening: 1.3765
Direction: Call
Expiry date: 30 July 2021
Strikes: 1.3725 / 1.38 / 1.3875
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 0.0021
Close date: 28 July 2021
Trade duration: 2
Closing spread: 0.0000
Profit / (Loss) -0.0021
Profit / (Loss) -100.0%

Trade date: 26 July 2021
Security: RUT
Price at opening: 2214
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 30 July 2021
Strikes: 2155 / 2185 / 2215
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 4.55
Close date: 30 July 2021
Trade duration: 4
Closing spread: 0.00
Profit / (Loss) -4.55
Profit / (Loss) -100.0%

Trade date: 27 July 2021
Security: DAX
Price at opening: 15522
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 30 July 2021
Strikes: 15300 / 15400 / 15500
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 9.00
Close date: 30 July 2021
Trade duration: 3
Closing spread: 19.40
Profit / (Loss) 10.40
Profit / (Loss) 115.6%

Not a great start to the journal, with 1 expiring OtM, GBP assigned ItM for 100% loss, FTSE closing at a small profit, and DAX doing well, but not well enough to cover losses on the other positions this week.
 
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Thanks for the comment @taowave

Good thread..Would you add the last price to make things a bit easier..

Good point; I've added price at opening and will do so for future trades.

I only trade structures similar to you if I believe I get skew edge/skew Delta.( sticky delta)

Is your approach strictly directional??

Rationale is directional, but there is a bit of filtration to determine which signals I trade. Skew has to be favourable, which eliminates a lot of long trades. I then run BS through a MonteCarlo simulation to determine a reasonable expected outcome.
 
Current open trades are bearish:

Trade date: 19 July 2021
Security: SPX
Price at opening: 4243
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 06 August 2021
Strikes: 4080 / 4160 / 4240
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 7.50

Trade date: 19 July 2021
Security: SPX
Price at opening: 4243
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 09 August 2021
Strikes: 4080 / 4160 / 4240
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 7.25

Trade date: 19 July 2021
Security: DAX
Price at opening: 15220
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 06 August 2021
Strikes: 14650 / 15000 / 15350
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 56.00

Trade date: 19 July 2021
Security: DAX
Price at opening: 15220
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 13 August 2021
Strikes: 14650 / 15000 / 15350
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 45.40

Trade date: 26 July 2021
Security: RUT
Price at opening: 2214
Direction: Put
Expiry date: 19 August 2021
Strikes: 2050 / 2100 / 2150
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 3.90
 
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