Swing trading with Butterflies

Got another signal to run a Call Fly - rather than usual Put flies - so opened a small experimental position:

Trade date: 18 October 2022
Security: TSLA
Price at opening: 220.7
Implied Vol 110.1%
Direction: Call
Expiry date: 21 October 2022
Strikes: 230 / 235 / 240
Structure: 1 / 2 / 1
Opening Spread: 0.44
 
The RUT debit Call Spread (#270) closed today in profit.

Trade date: 14 October 2022
Security: RUT
Price at opening: 1,738.0
Structure: AtM/ItM Call Debit Spread
Expiry date: 21 October 2022
Strikes: 1705 / 1740
Opening Spread: 20.20
Close date: 18 October 2022
Trade duration: 4
Closing spread: 30.00
Profit / (Loss): 9.80
Profit / (Loss): 48.5%
 
You're looking very consistent with your trades and profits. Are your broad system signals generated from 4 hour bars or daily bars? I'm mainly using daily price action bars for direction and main targets. Yes it looks like Tesla is going to bounce higher, but I'm waiting for a higher close before I'm getting in
 
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qlai said:
Is this an intentional earnings play?
More...

I wish I could tell you that its part of a highly-honed earnings strategy...

...but no, I hadn't noticed that earnings are today! :banghead:

Thanks for the heads-up. :thumbsup:

Thankfully, this one is a small position, so if TSLA falls further, a total loss will not be a catastrophe.

Per @Adam777 's view, it feels like there is slightly higher probability of a move upwards than a move downwards, and I'm looking for only about 25% on this one but will watch with interest later.
 
Adam777 said:
You're looking very consistent with your trades and profits. Are your broad system signals generated from 4 hour bars or daily bars? I'm mainly using daily price action bars for direction and main targets. Yes it looks like Tesla is going to bounce higher, but I'm waiting for a higher close before I'm getting in
More...

I use EoD prices for swing trends.

If I had the mental bandwidth, computer processing power, and commitment to disrupt my evenings (I'm in UK) I could take prices a minute before (US) close and make all trades then, but in practice for every adverse movement / missed opportunity overnight, there is a favourable movement / better entry doing things at a more leisurely pace after opening the following day.
 
I understand where you're coming from. I'm catching the opening hour and the closing hour from Sydney. It's daylight savings, so open is at 12:30am. Then off to my day job in the morning. Just relying on GTC orders at my targets while I catch a few hours sleep. Once I get this systematic I'll get more sleep :)
 
I'm irritated about exiting the ES Swing Trade (#270).

I had closing orders between 4 and 5. Those at 5 filled yesterday, but as ES dropped, the spread increased away from my BtC. With ES below 3650 today, I widened those from 4 and paid 15 just now as ES rose towards 3670.

Still closed at a profit of c.7 over four days, but frustrated. The overall position was:

Trade date: 14 October 2022
Security: ES
Price at opening: 3,672.0
Structure: AtM/OtM Put Credit Spread
Expiry date: 21 October 2022
Strikes: 3610 / 3670
Opening Spread: 22.00
Close date: 21 October 2022
Trade duration: 7
Closing spread: 10.00
Profit / (Loss): 12.00
Profit / (Loss): 31.6%

A good week.
 
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Opened a Swing trade on oil.

Trade date: 21 October 2022
Security: CL
Price at opening: 83.62
Structure: AtM/OtM Put Credit Spread
Expiry date: 28 October 2022
Strikes: 81.25 / 83.50
Opening Spread: 0.91
Close date: 28 October 2022
 
Unsurprisingly the TSLA fly (#271) expired worthless for a total loss.

Opened verticals to benefit from possible falls in indices - ES prior to open, RUT since opening.

Trade date: 24 October 2022
Security: ES
Price at opening: 3,782.0
Structure: AtM/OtM Call Credit Spread
Expiry date: 28 October 2022
Strikes: 3785 / 3840
Opening Spread: 23.25

Trade date: 24 October 2022
Security: RUT
Price at opening: 1,734.0
Structure: AtM/ItM Put Debit Spread
Expiry date: 31 October 2022
Strikes: 1735 / 1770
Opening Spread: 20.30
 
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