Great question. One ought to think the market should price those in already and indeed you know from IV, if it does or does not forecast a big move. But to trade trends using it? The exact answer is above my pay grade.
If you want to better understand options, read Hull, McMillan, Bennett and Sinclair. Sinclair and Bennett are more from a trader's perspective, Hull & McMillan are text books, teaching you the basics of options. Someone here told me that Bjork's Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time is great if you want to compute prices, etc. as a function of time. But the math is too hard for me so I have not been able to finish it.
Thank you, sir. That will keep me busy for a few months.
I have been playing with options on futures as an indicator for the underlying futures markets. I don't play the options themselves, just the underlying on a daily basis. I saw that the "Open interest" combined with the IV can give a hint of where the market is going, but as with any indicator I might have been self-fulfilling the prophecy that I wanted to create. Anyone can tell that I am at the starting point, maybe barking at the right trees but still looking at a long way to go.
I'll give those books a go, surely they will help.
