F112358
Registered: Jan 2010
Posts: 2
01-18-10 08:58 AM
The 5' bars following the "bad keys" had big overlap with the key.
The good keys had inmediate gratification, near zero overlap on the next bar.
Is that it?
............................................
Close enough
But here is a more refined way to play the KEY reversal once filled and an excellent STOP LOSS placement. We all know there are ZERO perfect signals to play the odds but that should never stop our quest in refining what signals we do use automatically. I like to have a certain amount of what i call "GOLD" signals. Think 5 signals or so depending on the days mkt conditions, is it a trend day, a range-channel day, a day with wide or narrow retraces, etc? We never know what will happen next. Knowing that we must have tight stop losses to play the breakout game.
Review last Fridays 5 min ES and notice on the 0930 est rth opening bar it closes and produces a KEY. Most average traders that go short on the next bar will probably place their STOP LOSS ABOVE the KEY bars high. That is all fine and dandy. But your friendly HOG has a better way to observe KEY bars once filled.
The first 0930est time bars opening tick on my tt platform showed a tick at 1142.75, its low was 1142.25, high was 1144.00 and closed at 1142.50................you observed a KEY reversal and get filled in the next bar at 1142.50 SHORT.
You naturally want to give any trade some room to bob around but always with an eye to bail out. Face it, the sooner a trade shows a profit the more you play with it........but you also want that "LITTLE EXTRA" confirmation that the trade is working still. (for christ sake Hog, cut the crap and get to the point...
).
Here it is: as long as price FOLLOWING your fill does NOT come back and retraces past the KEY bars OPENING tick you have a confirmed reversal. On Friday the RTH high and the low key bars never showed another bar where price got higher or lower than the KEYS opening ticks.
Now, i have allowed price to come back past the KEY bars opening tick but if more than 2 ticks past it i pull the cord and bail. BUT, but, if price hits that opening tick, get ready to lunch the trade. I love trades that tell me real fast i am wrong. I never wait for the KEY bars HIGH or LOW to be taken out because Joe Sixpack and Susie Saladmaker probably have their STOPS there.
I hope this helped some view KEY reversals in a different light. Believe me, it works.I am always looking for trades to milk for 5 handles. Will i grab trades sooner? Sure will, even small wins are needed to wash away the small losers we all deal with.
Sorry, Brendan, i was gonna wait until you got back. But, no one hit the nail on the head..............we all trade a little different. At any price on a chart it is a composit of hundreds of diff ideas, time frames, strats, etc. We as traders need our own little diddies to fly a better and tighter fighter plane in a DOG FIGHT>
PS: after a trends "RUN" do not confuse a retrace that looks like a reversal key, that is tricky. I assume a retrace more often that not, reversals are not that easy to hide. Think trend continuation first. That also is a clue why some what look like keys after a decent run will fail.
Registered: Jan 2010
Posts: 2
01-18-10 08:58 AM
The 5' bars following the "bad keys" had big overlap with the key.
The good keys had inmediate gratification, near zero overlap on the next bar.
Is that it?
............................................
Close enough
But here is a more refined way to play the KEY reversal once filled and an excellent STOP LOSS placement. We all know there are ZERO perfect signals to play the odds but that should never stop our quest in refining what signals we do use automatically. I like to have a certain amount of what i call "GOLD" signals. Think 5 signals or so depending on the days mkt conditions, is it a trend day, a range-channel day, a day with wide or narrow retraces, etc? We never know what will happen next. Knowing that we must have tight stop losses to play the breakout game.
Review last Fridays 5 min ES and notice on the 0930 est rth opening bar it closes and produces a KEY. Most average traders that go short on the next bar will probably place their STOP LOSS ABOVE the KEY bars high. That is all fine and dandy. But your friendly HOG has a better way to observe KEY bars once filled.
The first 0930est time bars opening tick on my tt platform showed a tick at 1142.75, its low was 1142.25, high was 1144.00 and closed at 1142.50................you observed a KEY reversal and get filled in the next bar at 1142.50 SHORT.
You naturally want to give any trade some room to bob around but always with an eye to bail out. Face it, the sooner a trade shows a profit the more you play with it........but you also want that "LITTLE EXTRA" confirmation that the trade is working still. (for christ sake Hog, cut the crap and get to the point...
).Here it is: as long as price FOLLOWING your fill does NOT come back and retraces past the KEY bars OPENING tick you have a confirmed reversal. On Friday the RTH high and the low key bars never showed another bar where price got higher or lower than the KEYS opening ticks.
Now, i have allowed price to come back past the KEY bars opening tick but if more than 2 ticks past it i pull the cord and bail. BUT, but, if price hits that opening tick, get ready to lunch the trade. I love trades that tell me real fast i am wrong. I never wait for the KEY bars HIGH or LOW to be taken out because Joe Sixpack and Susie Saladmaker probably have their STOPS there.
I hope this helped some view KEY reversals in a different light. Believe me, it works.I am always looking for trades to milk for 5 handles. Will i grab trades sooner? Sure will, even small wins are needed to wash away the small losers we all deal with.
Sorry, Brendan, i was gonna wait until you got back. But, no one hit the nail on the head..............we all trade a little different. At any price on a chart it is a composit of hundreds of diff ideas, time frames, strats, etc. We as traders need our own little diddies to fly a better and tighter fighter plane in a DOG FIGHT>
PS: after a trends "RUN" do not confuse a retrace that looks like a reversal key, that is tricky. I assume a retrace more often that not, reversals are not that easy to hide. Think trend continuation first. That also is a clue why some what look like keys after a decent run will fail.
