Swing Trading QQQ

But why would 10 yr rates fall on a hot PPI print? Because it wasn't too hot and the market prognosticators got it wrong. Or maybe everyone believes CPI will come in cold.

I think the market doesn't really seem to care about higher inflation anymore, as long as earnings come in as they believe. The 10 yr yields went from 5 to 3.88 from end of October 2023 to end of Dec 2023 and since then it has gone straight back up but the equity markets are at all time highs even the Utilities & mREITs are back.

The most amazing thing is junk bond ETFs are higher in value than they were at the end of Dec 2023 even with rates rising 70-80 bps.
 
nitrene said:
But why would 10 yr rates fall on a hot PPI print? Because it wasn't too hot and the market prognosticators got it wrong. Or maybe everyone believes CPI will come in cold.

I think the market doesn't really seem to care about higher inflation anymore, as long as earnings come in as they believe. The 10 yr yields went from 5 to 3.88 from end of October 2023 to end of Dec 2023 and since then it has gone straight back up but the equity markets are at all time highs even the Utilities & mREITs are back.

The most amazing thing is junk bond ETFs are higher in value than they were at the end of Dec 2023 even with rates rising 70-80 bps.
More...
That.
 
Imagine cpi is under forecast by 0.2% and the markets zoom up 1.4% only to give it all back

The nasdaq is running hot, zero fear and nothing but complacency
 
nitrene said:
But why would 10 yr rates fall on a hot PPI print? Because it wasn't too hot and the market prognosticators got it wrong. Or maybe everyone believes CPI will come in cold.

I think the market doesn't really seem to care about higher inflation anymore, as long as earnings come in as they believe. The 10 yr yields went from 5 to 3.88 from end of October 2023 to end of Dec 2023 and since then it has gone straight back up but the equity markets are at all time highs even the Utilities & mREITs are back.

The most amazing thing is junk bond ETFs are higher in value than they were at the end of Dec 2023 even with rates rising 70-80 bps.
More...


Day traders are inherently bearish . A trader a 1000 times a yr sees the mass manipulation of the mkt and it angers many . It shapes one’s views on everything. It’s almost as you will an envious look at how easy longs make money with no stress . Shorting is like “ those greedy pig longs are going to get slaughtered “ . A trader wants to profit on there greed by going short . So traders pile in short to “catch the top”. They get stuck and are forced to cover . Other traders see them covering and pile in long forcing a vicious continuous move up . Valuation , news etc mean zip . I can make a case this is the most overvalued mkt in history based on rates and pitiful earnings growth . But we’ve all got numb to reality as it means little
 
SammyJ said:
Day traders are inherently bearish . A trader a 1000 times a yr sees the mass manipulation of the mkt and it angers many . It shapes one’s views on everything. It’s almost as you will an envious look at how easy longs make money with no stress . Shorting is like “ those greedy pig longs are going to get slaughtered “ . A trader wants to profit on there greed by going short . So traders pile in short to “catch the top”. They get stuck and are forced to cover . Other traders see them covering and pile in long forcing a vicious continuous move up . Valuation , news etc mean zip . I can make a case this is the most overvalued mkt in history based on rates and pitiful earnings growth . But we’ve all got numb to reality as it means little
More...

I've listened in to a lot of people and get the sense that many are expecting the system to break down instead of maintaining status quo. Many also no doubt carry their political views and various baggage into the market, no doubt affecting their trading negatively.

Trading is much more relaxing if one just goes with the flow. Today, lately and most often that's up in the stock indices. The market's currently breaking out to the upside.
 
Laissez Faire said:
I've listened in to a lot of people and get the sense that many are expecting the system to break down instead of maintaining status quo. Many also no doubt carry their political views and various baggage into the market, no doubt affecting their trading negatively.

Trading is much more relaxing if one just goes with the flow. Today, lately and most often that's up in the stock indices. The market's currently breaking out to the upside.
More...

Words of wisdom.
 
Laissez Faire said:
I've listened in to a lot of people and get the sense that many are expecting the system to break down instead of maintaining status quo. Many also no doubt carry their political views and various baggage into the market, no doubt affecting their trading negatively.

Trading is much more relaxing if one just goes with the flow. Today, lately and most often that's up in the stock indices. The market's currently breaking out to the upside.
More...
Agree with this. It’s bizar how bad my shorter term directional trading is. I sometimes compare it to a giant slotmachine which is programmed to suck as many people in to keep ‘gambling’. It’s (for me) very hard to beat (err impossible I mean) a simple ‘long only’ rule.

But how determine the flow? Wouldn’t you end up with a moving average rule?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top