Swing Trading NADEX Foreign Currency Pair Derivatives

[expiated]

I can't keep track of this new aspect of my trading mixed in with other journals. So, this thread will be exclusively for that purpose.

I wrote (somewhere) that I would be watching this week for the signal to short USDCHF, which took place on December 27, 2022 at around 7:00 AM PST. At that time the rate was in the neighborhood of 0.9292, and price has since come down to 0.9231 for about a 61-pip drop. That constitutes an adequate amount of profit for me, making this an acceptable exit level.

The pairs that are now poised to deliver trigger signals for entering short positions are AUDJPY @ 90.22, EURJPY @ 142.07, GBPJPY @ 160.65 and USDJPY @ 133.20.

 

[expiated]

I find there to be little logic (from my point of view) in the way that Nadex records orders and transactions. So, to make sure I understand what's going on when trading Knock-outs, I exited my USDJPY position prematurely by setting my take-profit target (limit order) at 132.97...

Before doing so, my account balance was at $2,807.50.

I intended to get a screen shot of my balance AFTERWARD, but forgot to, though I believe it was a little over $8,000.00. So, if the USDJPY KO cost me -$3,500.00 to sell, -$100.00 to enter and -$100 to exit for a total debit of -$3,700...

And the payout (Buy to Close) from my early exit was $5,400, I would expect that I got back the -$3,500, plus another $5,400 on top, minus the -$200 in fees, to equal $200 less that the cost of 100 contracts, or $9,800.

However, $3,500 + $5, 200 is only $8,700.

But of course, because I exited early, and therefore, did not receive the FULL payout I would have gotten had I waited for the rate to reach the floor (the bottom of the range).

So then, I need to do this again, but purchase ONLY one contract, and WAIT for it to reach its resolution if I want to check to see if I understand the math correctly.

 

[expiated]

At some point, I gave up on trying to design a swing trade strategy, resolved to the fact that I personally would simply never be able to swing trade profitably.

I happened upon the approach I am now taking, which from everything I've seen thus far, is indeed profitable, completely by accident. It was merely a byproduct of continuing to work on coming as close as I could to perfecting the system I use for day trading.

So, for those who criticize me for having gone through so many journals, I wonder if they too are able to scalp, day trade, swing trade AND position trade their assets of choice profitably? (Especially given how many contributors to this forum I've seen write that you CAN'T day trade Forex successfully.) If not, perhaps there was method to my madness after all (i.e., good reason for what I was doing).

The same goes for those who wanted to know why I would continue to refine my system if it was already profitable? Maybe they just feel miserable, so they want everyone else to feel miserable as well (so they are not alone). But, that's not my gig. Pardon me, but I think I will simply continue to ignore them as best I can and go on living a spiritually joyful life, God willing.

On another note, the figures I am using here are from my demo account, so for the time being at least, I'm noting the balance publicly to track how quickly it can theoretically grow (or shrink) trading the maximum number of contracts. (Today's opening balance was around $12,000.)

 

[expiated]

If the return from USDJPY was $5,400, it would have put the $12,000 opening balance above $17,000 just by itself. So, was the real return $5,400 - $3,500 = $1700? This is what I need to determine.

UPDATE...

But wait... was the actual return $1700? Probably not. I just opened the demo platform up again and this is what it now shows as the balance:

Chalk it up to NADEX to confuse the issue for me with their "buggy" demo platform. So then, I almost doubled the balance in one day (probably less than a couple of hours) with no where near the risk involved when trading NADEX binary options and a mere fraction of the working capital I would have needed to make that much money trading via a traditional Forex broker.

That's why NADEX Knock-outs are likely to remain my instrument of choice until and unless I make enough money to begin diversifying.

 

[expiated]

So then, I almost doubled the balance in one day (probably less than a couple of hours) with nowhere near the risk involved when trading NADEX binary options and a mere fraction of the working capital I would have needed to make that much money trading via a traditional Forex broker.

A couple of last-minute trades toward the end of the New York session actually DID double my opening balance. But, I don't think I'm likely to do any trading on Friday, having gotten to my laptop MUCH too late in this 24-hour cycle.

 

[expiated]

I don't think I'm likely to do any trading on Friday, having gotten to my laptop MUCH too late in this 24-hour cycle.

For Your Information:

The signal for this short play registered on your five-minute charts this morning sometime around 7:00 AM PST. So ideally, you should have been at your laptop by around six o'clock at the latest.

My ultimate target for EURJPY was 139.97, so this trade is essentially over.
My ultimate target for USDJPY was 131.56, so that pair more than met expectations.
Presently, the ideal target for AUDJPY is 88.07.
For GBPJPY, it was 158.79, so this pair also surpassed its "goal."
USDCHF reached its projected target when it hit 0.9226.

 

[expiated]

These positions (along with a binary-option contract that did not fit in the window/field) are going against the overall bearish sentiment of the yen pairs, which might have finally suspended their downward course for the time being.

I'm hoping price will climb at least a little bit higher in the next thirty minutes, because I won't be able to monitor price action after that and will therefore have to abandon these positions at that time, regardless.

 

[expiated]

I'm hoping price will climb at least a little bit higher in the next thirty minutes, because I won't be able to monitor price action after that and will therefore have to abandon these positions at that time, regardless.

The "real" or "serious" push to the upside didn't happen until twelve hours later, at 6:00 AM PST. Unfortunately, I couldn't get to my laptop until three hours later, so I missed the surge.