Swing Trading is the Holy Grail

F

frostengine

You may have read my threads in the past dealing with automated intra-day trading. One thing I have come to realize, the "easy" money is in the higher time frames.

Take for example an intra-day ES strategy that has a positive expectancy of $50 and a beautiful equity curve. Apply to it 1 tick of slippage in each direction, plus $5 commissions. You are now only netting $20 and your beautiful equity curve becomes jagged.

In this journal, I will record my trades and methods to demonstrate how Swing Trading is the holy grail of trading. My strategy consists of two levels of analysis.

<b>First Step:</b>
Using tricks for data mining developed through my automated intra-day trading experiences, I have programaticaly identified 100's of patterns which have "statistical significance". Meaning they can tilt the odds slightly in my favor. I then combine all of these patterns into a single score for each S&P 500 stock.

From this score I am able to filter all 500 S&P stocks daily and identify those that are most likely to present a good <a href="http://www.mystockanalysis.com/stocks-to-buy/position-sizing/">Risk/Reward</a>.

<b>Second Step:</b>
Using these filtered stocks, I then look at the chart patterns and upcoming corporate events to determine which stocks I will buy.

I am hoping through this journal to engage in lively discussions around Swing Trading and my methods. I will be posting the stocks I am watching daily as well as results.

I started trading this live last week, you can see the trades already taken on my free (no ads etc) blog at <a href="http://www.mystockanalysis.com">www.mystockanalysis.com</a>

I will update this thread tomorrow starting with the results from last week.
 
The first week of trading this strategy with real money was a bit slow. Only 3 trades were placed this week and none have been closed out yet. In the middle of the week, I had two trades on my watch list that would have worked out great. However, I was away from my computer that afternoon and did not take the trade. I can't beat myself up on the missed trades, there will be plenty of new opportunities this week.

<b>Results</b>
Total P/L: +$47
Total %: +.19%
S&P %: -.21%

Note: The S&P was at 1411 before I placed my first trade, so I am using that price as the starting S&P price.

Overall not an overly impressive start, however, at least I am beating the S&P. Its also worth noting, I am risking less than .5% per trade right now until I gain confidence in this strategy. That will affect my % gain for a few weeks. I will update this thread with the watch list for tomorrow later today.
 
Awesome, been meaning to do more swing trading. I think swing trading makes more sense for IRA/retirement accounts.
 
The market is currently at a point of indecision. This is causing my algorithm to not generate many strong signals.

The one stock to watch for tomorrow is RSH. If it can show some strength, it may make a good swing trade with a stop around $5.85

To see the other signals generated for tomorrow, go to <a href="http://www.mystockanalysis.com/stocks-to-buy/stocks-buy-412012/">4/1/12 Signals</a>
 
Quote from frostengine:

The first week of trading this strategy with real money was a bit slow. Only 3 trades were placed this week and none have been closed out yet. In the middle of the week, I had two trades on my watch list that would have worked out great. However, I was away from my computer that afternoon and did not take the trade. I can't beat myself up on the missed trades, there will be plenty of new opportunities this week.

<b>Results</b>
Total P/L: +$47
Total %: +.19%
S&P %: -.21%

Note: The S&P was at 1411 before I placed my first trade, so I am using that price as the starting S&P price.

Overall not an overly impressive start, however, at least I am beating the S&P. Its also worth noting, I am risking less than .5% per trade right now until I gain confidence in this strategy. That will affect my % gain for a few weeks. I will update this thread with the watch list for tomorrow later today.
More...

Any reason why you are not posting your trades? I seriously hope this journal is not going to consist of you updating your p&l. It's your journal and you can do what you want but if you seriously want people to read it you are going to need to post your trades in real time. And since you are swing trading, this task should be easier then hell. Good luck with your journal.
 
Yes, my trades will be posted but somewhat delayed. After placing my trade, I tweet it on my twitter account @MyStockAnalysis real time. Then will repost here as a summary or if its a slow day real time.
 
Quote from frostengine:

Yes, my trades will be posted but somewhat delayed. After placing my trade, I tweet it on my twitter account @MyStockAnalysis real time. Then will repost here as a summary or if its a slow day real time.
More...

Ok cool. Can I ask what 3 trades you placed this week?
 
Taken from my blog <a href="http://www.mystockanalysis.com">www.mystockanalysis.com</a>

GAS: Purchased 192 shares at $38.82, stop $38.29
APOL: Purchased 48 shares at $39.02, stop $36.98
NEM: Purchased 40 shares at $51.50, stop $48.97

You will notice the number of shares purchased is quite low. I am trading this strategy on a $25,000 account and risking only $100 per trade which is very cautious for this size account.

I will increase the per trade risk amount after I gain more confidence in the strategy and some market uncertainty is removed.
 
Quote from frostengine:

Taken from my blog <a href="http://www.mystockanalysis.com">www.mystockanalysis.com</a>

GAS: Purchased 192 shares at $38.82, stop $38.29
APOL: Purchased 48 shares at $39.02, stop $36.98
NEM: Purchased 40 shares at $51.50, stop $48.97

You will notice the number of shares purchased is quite low. I am trading this strategy on a $25,000 account and risking only $100 per trade which is very cautious for this size account.

I will increase the per trade risk amount after I gain more confidence in the strategy and some market uncertainty is removed.
More...

OK, I missed that link to your blog.

Good luck bud. Be careful with the bottom picking. Every trader, and I mean ever trader goes through a bottom picking phase. I hope it's a short phase for you. But good luck on your journey.
 
Quote from frostengine:

Taken from my blog <a href="http://www.mystockanalysis.com">www.mystockanalysis.com</a>

GAS: Purchased 192 shares at $38.82, stop $38.29
APOL: Purchased 48 shares at $39.02, stop $36.98
NEM: Purchased 40 shares at $51.50, stop $48.97

You will notice the number of shares purchased is quite low. I am trading this strategy on a $25,000 account and risking only $100 per trade which is very cautious for this size account.

I will increase the per trade risk amount after I gain more confidence in the strategy and some market uncertainty is removed.
More...

Care to give a bit background on what types of things made your algo pick up these particular stocks?
 
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