Swing Trading For a Consistent Return

easymon1 said:
LP is lifelong user of Fibs and Fibs Alone pretty much.
He was hired away from a pharma company back in the day to "just keep doing what you are doing for twenty of our clients", and he's continued to this day and hopefully many many more.
As he puts it, he is now in the "8th furlong" and has a ton of stories.

To the point, if you want to see fibs in use by an ardent devotee, Larry hosts an hour show 9:AM weekdays and archives the show to youtube.
The youtube archives are a great way to cover a lot of ground fast, condense a show using the speedbar, skip to the charts, and see tons of setups and how he uses fibs.

Weeks old shows can be looked back on and be compared to how they turned out.
Larry often provides realtime heads-ups that don't have the hindsight bias built in.
You can pull up a current chart of your own, mark it up, and check out how his "reco" did.
Larry will be the first to tell you, and often does, that "He doesn't know how any particular trade will turn out, but nobody else does either." LP takes calls on every show so call him up.
This is a random old show... cued at the NQ, Bonds, EUR, ...

Fibs can make good Support and Resistance, imho. Trading them alone?
View attachment 260243

"Trading an Engulfing Candle, Hammer at Support & Resistance provides greater conviction."
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...t-right-here-baby.335635/page-10#post-5014575
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Thanks so much for this. I will definitely check him out.
 
Illini Trader said:
I have never even seriously looked at the DOM. From what I understand the people that try to trade off the order flow that they see do not have much success trying it. Also is it true that many of the orders are fake that are removed before they have a chance to fill?
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My question was "where are majority of orders placed", not anything about trading DOM.
Anyway I'll cut to the chase to save dragging out toing and froing.
Majority of sitting orders are on major round numbers, not support and resistance levels or fib numbers.
However, major round numbers create S/R levels, ie you'll notice in the majority of instances S/R are at major round numbers.
Possibly 90% of ET may dispute this claim, the problem is that like trend lines, don't nitpick the numbers.
A chart may show a S/R @ 4012, well actually its 4000 because like always, price will over or undershoot which is another discussion.
Therefore my suggestion, round numbers are far superior to fibs and its simpler, there is nothing to calculate.

Now one other thing I noticed about your example of copper chart.
Why use Copper Futures? Futures are a derivative, it is not copper price! Why use levels speculators use when you should imo use the cash. Futures prices bounce around overnight and day due to traders playing silly buggers, hence you are being fooled by randomness.
 
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Someone asked to see my 64 stocks so I have attached two TOS 32 grids showing them. If anyone has suggestions for replacements let me know.
Screenshot (43).png Screenshot (44).png
 
easymon1 said:
LP is lifelong user of Fibs and Fibs Alone pretty much.
He was hired away from a pharma company back in the day to "just keep doing what you are doing for twenty of our clients", and he's continued to this day and hopefully many many more.
As he puts it, he is now in the "8th furlong" and has a ton of stories.

To the point, if you want to see fibs in use by an ardent devotee, Larry hosts an hour show 9:AM weekdays and archives the show to youtube.
The youtube archives are a great way to cover a lot of ground fast, condense a show using the speedbar, skip to the charts, and see tons of setups and how he uses fibs.

Weeks old shows can be looked back on and be compared to how they turned out.
Larry often provides realtime heads-ups that don't have the hindsight bias built in.
You can pull up a current chart of your own, mark it up, and check out how his "reco" did.
Larry will be the first to tell you, and often does, that "He doesn't know how any particular trade will turn out, but nobody else does either." LP takes calls on every show so call him up.
This is a random old show... cued at the NQ, Bonds, EUR, ...

Fibs can make good Support and Resistance, imho. Trading them alone?
View attachment 260243

"Trading an Engulfing Candle, Hammer at Support & Resistance provides greater conviction."
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...t-right-here-baby.335635/page-10#post-5014575
More...

I watched the video you posted or at least until he got into trading by astrology then I dropped it quickly but I did watch his June 4th posting and I think he has something to offer but he seems to be concentrating on futures and primarily uses the 15 and 30 minute charts. I liked his guest on June 4th so I will keep watching him for a while. Thanks for introducing him. PS: the commercial breaks are like 5 minutes long so I will have to watch the archives postings.
 
UNH ---- This charts shows what I am trying to do: it broke the 38.2% retracement line (today June 7) so I went short. The problem is that I when long on Thurday's green bar because I wanted to see a rejection of the 38.2% support when in it actually was just an up-day in a forming down-trend.

I have to get better in my judgments if this is going to work.

Screenshot (46).png
 
Attached is my spreadsheet for Monday June 7th. I will post TOS cash sheet when I get to a full sheet so all trades are documented. I am falling more behind the SPX and NDX and will make a decision at the end of June if I want to continue this experiment.Screenshot (48).png
 
easymon1 said:
This experiment has a Lot of variables.
Setting up a record keeping and tracking system, and trading real money puts you in the top 5% immediately.
imho, at end of month if not where you want things, Consider modifications to parameters before throwing the babe out with the bathwater.
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Thanks for the encouragement and advice.
 
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