Swing Traders: What are your monthly returns?

[rb7]

This is from my research using real market data of last week Thursday (2022-09-15):

# Mon distr:
#   >100.00%:       1        1
#   > 95.00%:       0        1
#   > 90.00%:       1        2
#   > 85.00%:       1        3
#   > 80.00%:       0        3
#   > 75.00%:       0        3
#   > 70.00%:       0        3
#   > 65.00%:       1        4
#   > 60.00%:       1        5
#   > 55.00%:       2        7
#   > 50.00%:       7       14
#   > 45.00%:       9       23
#   > 40.00%:      21       44
#   > 35.00%:      51       95
#   > 30.00%:     121      216
#   > 25.00%:     256      472
#   > 20.00%:     834     1306
#   > 15.00%:    1029     2335
#   > 10.00%:    4068     6403
#   >  5.00%:   14538    20941
#   >  0.00%:   32850    53791

It means there are more than 216 spread trade candidates that have a MonthlyMaxPnL >= 30% if the price of the underlying stays constant (just a convention to make trades comparable to each other).
Of course it's not a guaranteed outcome, but a good estimate that it's possible to achieve 30% per month, if done right together with all the other things said (diversification, automation etc.)

The above table is about 2-leg vertical Put spreads only, not even including the 2-leg calender spreads yet, meaning there are even more such candidates out there.

The result looks similar at any time during market hours. Ie. there are enough candidates available every day at any time of the day.

Your stats also show that it's statistically possible to make more than 100% per month.
So, what's your point?

 

[NoahA]

It means there are more than 216 spread trade candidates that have a MonthlyMaxPnL >= 30%

I'm just following this thread out of amusement, and not understanding much. But if you're showing that there are 216 possible ways to make more than 30%, don't we have to consider that with there being over 53k possible spreads, picking the ones that give more than 30% has a less than 0.4% chance? Aren't the odds at the roulette table of 2.6% to pick the right number vastly better?? Maybe your "system" is helping you pick the right spreads?

 

[earth_imperator]

It's entertainment, my friend. Some like the History Channel, some like the Hallmark Channel, and some like gangster flicks. If I want culture I'll trade. Which are you? Have a wonderful day,

I prefer SciFi of Star Trek (and The Orville), the realistic stories of course

Yesterday saw the SciFi movie "Deja Vu" (2006) with Denzel Washington. Not bad, even though it's about time-travel (which I strongly believe is impossible).

 

[earth_imperator]

Your stats also show that it's statistically possible to make more than 100% per month.
So, what's your point?

Nothing, I just wanted to show that it is at least theoretically possible to make >= 30% p.mo. b/c some here had objected it. I say at least theoretically possible, b/c I haven't tried it out yet myself; I'm just planning and preparing it to do soon in practice when my trading tools are ready (which I develop myself; it all takes time).

 

[aarkadie]

Actually I woule disagree, because this is one of only-long traders misconceptions...

 

[earth_imperator]

I'm just following this thread out of amusement, and not understanding much. But if you're showing that there are 216 possible ways to make more than 30%, don't we have to consider that with there being over 53k possible spreads, picking the ones that give more than 30% has a less than 0.4% chance? Aren't the odds at the roulette table of 2.6% to pick the right number vastly better?? Maybe your "system" is helping you pick the right spreads?

That's IMO wrong logic

 

[rb7]

Nothing, I just wanted to show that it is at least theoretically possible to make >= 30% p.mo. b/c some here had objected it. I say at least theoretically possible, b/c I haven't tried it out yet myself; I'm just planning and preparing it to do soon in practice when my trading tools are ready (which I develop myself; it all takes time).

Gotcha!

Possible? Yes.

Probable? Very unlikely.

 

[FibonacciNinja]

My beef with the "EI" is his 30% per month by selling Put Spreads..Not happening,or should I say not for long

And who doesnt like Goodfellas???

Just ask him to get his shinebox, he’ll prove it to you.

 

[MacBookProHo]

Today, for example, if you bought down around 10:30 ....you'd make way more than 100% returns monthly with options,
100% is a rather conservative number too. It's not easy and instant....but it's certainly possible,

It's laughable observing you guys having a wet dream about 10% monthly returns.... as if that's a completely lotto, dream, fantasy, sci-fi, Wizard of Oz, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Snowwhite, BLM, George Floyd, Queen Elizabath, nuclear bomb, Puntin, scenario,

 

[Businessman]

Math in an excel spreadsheet doesn't transpose to real trading results unfortunately.

If have access to 100:1 leverage and a good profitable trading system, turning 10K into 200K in one year is possible.

Yes, risk of ruin is high.

But it is only 10K, just recharge the account if you do blow up.

To reduce risk of initial blowup start when the system is in a drawdown or had a few poor trading months in a row.