Swing Trade Play 11/11/05

[fandelem]

Quote from coolweb:

Don't pick tops.. refer to post #3 in thread.

Your method of scaling in, I thought about it actually,

Its only used with big players who need the liquidity to scale in before it actually moves big time.

People who are not trading 1000s of lots do not need to do this dangerous strategy.

If It was going down tomorrow hypotehtically,

You would have been scaling in XX contracts and replacing and adding for the last 10 days .

I would have just shorted XX contracts tomorrow and be in the money.

Simple? Keep it simple.


Don't use scaling as a crutch for bad timing.
this is advice not cristicm.

I have a similar question that maybe you can answer that has been on my mind for ages...

When I see the EUR move, say, 50 pips in under a minute.. could it be triggered by one entity buying say, 50 lots over and over again running the price up 10-20 pips creating a snowball, and then everyone else starting to buy in creating the avalanche? then at the end of the run, you always see a pullback.. is this when the people who bought in early take their (initial) profits?

or am I just daydreaming...

 

[MacroEvent]

Quote from MacroEvent:

ok putting positions on at 1254 and i will try for 54.50's --- looking for the 1255 area to be tested.


just added some 53.50's ---- missed at 54.50 so far.

ok shorted 1256.50's and 57.50's late in the day yesterday looking to replace my 54.50's and 53.50's. the 54.50's have now been covered at +1 tick and i am looking to cover my 53.50's at 53.25.

after shorting the 53.50's and 54.50's yesterday i was able to cover all my previously held positions at 50.50 and 51.50 with the run down to 50.25 just after 12:00 --- cool worked out perfect.


now my cost basis is looking good and will be sitting at the 1257 level once i get my previous 53.50's covered --- so i am sitting in the money with my position again looking for any pullback to get the 53.50's covered. my first target for covering 1/8th will now be 1246.50. Looking forward to a good day today!

 

[MacroEvent]

Quote from coolweb:

Don't pick tops.. refer to post #3 in thread.

Your method of scaling in, I thought about it actually,

Its only used with big players who need the liquidity to scale in before it actually moves big time.

People who are not trading 1000s of lots do not need to do this dangerous strategy.

If It was going down tomorrow hypotehtically,

You would have been scaling in XX contracts and replacing and adding for the last 10 days .

I would have just shorted XX contracts tomorrow and be in the money.

Simple? Keep it simple.


Don't use scaling as a crutch for bad timing.
this is advice not cristicm.

are you crazy --- i have had 7 very good swing trades this year doing the exact same method --- this is not that hard to do, and the fact that price is not screaming up 10 points against me at my most recent cost basis shows that this has been a good area to try and get positions set-up for a swing trade.


nobody can pick tops perfectly and that is what scale - in/order replacement accommodates for --- this is not rocket science.

 

[MacroEvent]

btw, Merrill sold a ton in the pit {along with a few other commercials} at 56.00 yesterday.

 

[MacroEvent]

53.50's covered at 53.25 --- only positions holding now are 56.50's and 57.50's for a cost basis close to 57 even due to the size of positions at those two price levels.

 

[fandelem]

Quote from MacroEvent:

53.50's covered at 53.25 --- only positions holding now are 56.50's and 57.50's for a cost basis close to 57 even due to the size of positions at those two price levels.

Macro,

if the price continues to increase, is your only hope that it will retrace enough for you to "add-to-your-losers" to break even? or has it been your experience that after every run up the wrong way (against you) you have been able to time the short to allow you to capture the retracement to size-out your lowest positions?

 

[lilduckling]

I too am short several stocks...YELL, FITB, and LEG

The mkts are stalling here.....its uneasy....theres a cold chill rolling down this hill...there are bears in this level.....coming out of the woods....peaking behind the elms, probing, feeling............its uneasy.

 

[reno4nook]

Quote from lilduckling:

there are bears in this level.....coming out of the woods....peaking behind the elms, probing, feeling

Today's latest S&P call/put numbers

calls - 74981
puts - 300923

 

[EqtTrdr]

Quote from MacroEvent:

53.50's covered at 53.25 --- only positions holding now are 56.50's and 57.50's for a cost basis close to 57 even due to the size of positions at those two price levels.

ES now 60's....

initial swing short was incorrect play..


why not just take a stop loss and get the heck out..


This type of trading is insane!

just my .02

 

[MacroEvent]

Quote from fandelem:

Macro,

if the price continues to increase, is your only hope that it will retrace enough for you to "add-to-your-losers" to break even? or has it been your experience that after every run up the wrong way (against you) you have been able to time the short to allow you to capture the retracement to size-out your lowest positions?

yes sir you are right --- as long as i can keep "order replacing" then all the previous positions are history --- they have been replaced at no cost to you and the commissions for the attempt have been paid --- so it is like a wash until you get the actual pullback.


ok yesterday i put shorts on at 62.50 and 63.50 with an overall cost basis now at just above 60.00 even ---- i will cover the 56.50 and 57.50 positions with any pullback today {at +1 tick} ---- right now i am underwater about 3 ticks here at the open --- not bad.