yikes, acrt is scary to me. I wouldn't touch it going either direction right now. It was poised to go down yesterday and it did. Now the futures are down big pre-market, so If I was already short I would be looking to cover on a drop this morning. If I was long, well, I would have been stopped out by yesterdays drop.
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Swing/Position Trades
- Thread starter dgabriel
- Start date
my last message was premarket, after todays action and considering option expiration next week I am looking for a bounce on monday. QQQ could make a nice run.
Friday had was quite a reversal fueled largely by a dream short covering opportunity, a gap down support breaching selloff with a fear level VIX spike. There is no indication technically or fundamentally that the market is in anything more than a bounce.
In any relatively extreme situation, any trader working on any time frame should examine the technicals, fundamental backdrop and like today, news events that appear to be affecting market behavior, and bear in mind the trends on short to longer time frames on any vehicle they are trading.
MACD divergences were coming into evidence prior to today on the dailies on the NDX, COMPX and BTK, and appeared on the 15 minute to 60 minute charts today. These indicators can be useful as the action of mean reversion almost always kicks in at some point in an oversold condition. The MACD charts two different moving averages and a signal line. On May 6 the Nasdaq hit a new low of 1560 and the MACD, hit a low and a bounce ensued. The Naz struck new lows Friday last week but the MACD did not, as price steadily dropped from the May 17th swing high to the lows of this last 6 trading days. The daily downtrend stalled in momentum this week as it seemed that a bottom was possibly being wrought, and the MACD stalled as well, which only tells you what price is telling you.
Drop down to the 15 and 60 minute intraday time frames and a clear divergence appears as price hit a new low this morning but the MACD did not. This is because the MACD averages use data from many prior periods and Friday morning price moved down at a much faster rate than the MACD averages had been moving, thus price hit a new low and MACD did not, which indicated that price change was out of the ordinary, and on the major indicies the rate of price change seldom strays out of the ordinary for long. Any market has elasticity and price snaps back at some point. Perhaps this morning shook out enough weak hands to give the market some short term momentum, I don't know, but I expect a day or two.
Open interest on the QQQ 28 options is greater on the puts than the calls ,and this may help to pull the QQQs the above 28 at some point this week, if the bounce can get above 29, a big if, 30 becomes a magnet due to the huge open interest on both sides of the QQQ options.
If the market gets some momentum Monday and Tuesday, expect to see the media seek explanations for it, generally citing improved investor sentiment for whatever reason and notice it will be the exact opposite of media explanations published during this past weekâs performance. Donât pay any attention to the stories. Wall Street spoon feeds them to financial journalists who make their living on providing stories to the media.
In any relatively extreme situation, any trader working on any time frame should examine the technicals, fundamental backdrop and like today, news events that appear to be affecting market behavior, and bear in mind the trends on short to longer time frames on any vehicle they are trading.
MACD divergences were coming into evidence prior to today on the dailies on the NDX, COMPX and BTK, and appeared on the 15 minute to 60 minute charts today. These indicators can be useful as the action of mean reversion almost always kicks in at some point in an oversold condition. The MACD charts two different moving averages and a signal line. On May 6 the Nasdaq hit a new low of 1560 and the MACD, hit a low and a bounce ensued. The Naz struck new lows Friday last week but the MACD did not, as price steadily dropped from the May 17th swing high to the lows of this last 6 trading days. The daily downtrend stalled in momentum this week as it seemed that a bottom was possibly being wrought, and the MACD stalled as well, which only tells you what price is telling you.
Drop down to the 15 and 60 minute intraday time frames and a clear divergence appears as price hit a new low this morning but the MACD did not. This is because the MACD averages use data from many prior periods and Friday morning price moved down at a much faster rate than the MACD averages had been moving, thus price hit a new low and MACD did not, which indicated that price change was out of the ordinary, and on the major indicies the rate of price change seldom strays out of the ordinary for long. Any market has elasticity and price snaps back at some point. Perhaps this morning shook out enough weak hands to give the market some short term momentum, I don't know, but I expect a day or two.
Open interest on the QQQ 28 options is greater on the puts than the calls ,and this may help to pull the QQQs the above 28 at some point this week, if the bounce can get above 29, a big if, 30 becomes a magnet due to the huge open interest on both sides of the QQQ options.
If the market gets some momentum Monday and Tuesday, expect to see the media seek explanations for it, generally citing improved investor sentiment for whatever reason and notice it will be the exact opposite of media explanations published during this past weekâs performance. Donât pay any attention to the stories. Wall Street spoon feeds them to financial journalists who make their living on providing stories to the media.
I'm still bullish, but the market seemed a little to over zealous today. I got out of most of my positions with a nice little gain.
How did you guys do?
How did you guys do?
I think spot gold and the XAU are consolidating in a trading range and we are near the bottom of the trading range. I'm long July calls on the XAU again ( did it 3 times last week ) trying to play the trading range from the bullish side only.
That should do OK.
I'm having a tough time reading the market the next 2-3 days, but if you can trade it successfully more power to you.
I'm having a tough time reading the market the next 2-3 days, but if you can trade it successfully more power to you.
That was a good call. Way to stick to your guns.
Also Kudos for getting out. I know people say you should let your profits run, but I'm very suspicious of any market that has a 450 point range in two days.
Also Kudos for getting out. I know people say you should let your profits run, but I'm very suspicious of any market that has a 450 point range in two days.