swing-day trading US stocks

Market commentary for 11/22/2006

Good day!
We had another consolidation day. The only change was we got the narrowest day in the last 7 or we had a NR7 bar. Most of the time that will bring a trend day after a NR7 day. I will look for that opportunity today. With the market action on the daily chart my bias is on the long side. I will not jump at the first long above yesterdays high because after a long tight consolidation like we have had, e have a higher chance for a false breakout.
There are two ways to trade this pattern, the first is to buy the first breakout with a smaller position and add to it with continuation patterns and the second is to leave the first breakout and just go with continuation patterns. This is depending on the individual but remember to know we have a higher chance for a false breakout.
There is another way to trade a trend day possibility. Wait for the first 60 min and mark low and high and go with direction what will be broken first. This is not rule, but this is as situation when you want to wait and follow the action at the open to avoid possible false breakouts. These types of trades are only if we see a trend day. We don’t know if this wills happen but after NR7 day the % possibility for that increases.
Don’t forget that is tomorrow last whole trading day for this week, and we can expect a number of traders will close their desktops after the morning action and that will bring light volume for rest of day.
All the above is a good reason why it will be best to stay with same tactic we have been using tomorrow. Small risk and use intraday moves and that only in case the range are broken. I will not be interested in new trades until the indices move out of this range.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11222006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11222006qqqq60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11212006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11222006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11222006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11222006dia60.jpg


Watch list for 11/22/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Use small risk and intraday moves and that only in case the range are broken. I will not be interested in new trades until the indices move out of this range.

LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
PANC long above: 7.10, stop under: 6.77, target: 8 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11222006panc.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 26, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
FLIR long above: 34.00, stop under: 33.75, target: 35 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11222006flir.jpg

ADBE long above: 42.75, stop under: 42.32, target: open DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11222006adbe.jpg

PYX long above: 15.00, stop under: 14.89, target: 15.50 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11222006pyx.jpg

SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
MSCC short under: 19.82, stop above: 20.42, target: open ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11222006mscc.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 16

Watch ideas:
Long:
JOYG, LLL, MPS, PH, CPTS

Short:
PFGC, AMD, WPI

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl052006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl062006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl072006.htm - for July
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl082006.htm - for August
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl092006.htm - for September
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl102006.htm - for October
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl112006.htm - for November
I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
 
Breaking on 3rd try

People who follow me know that I really like that 3rd try breaking. This is one of my favorite patterns. I will tell why. Most of time we could see breakout on 3rd try and could be charm. In past I was figure that I had a lot of problems with flags. Lots of time I was seen only slightly new high or double top (2T pattern). At that time I didn’t know how to react in that situation. So I had problems with flag intra day. In that case lots of time after double top, or slightly higher high you will see another pull back (smaller then previous) and you will get triangle formation. Risk is what I really like in that pattern. Risk is always smaller and smaller. That is very important for good risk/reward trade, what is the base for profitable trade. I’m sure that without good risk/reward trades no one can’t be successful trade, with any trading method.
Like to show one example what we had in trading room.
VAL
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11132006val.jpg
You can see that on the daily chart, VAL consolidation started with the triangle consolidation after strong upward move. We got 3rd try triangle and setup was above: $27, with stop under 26.70 what was based on the 60 min chart intraday support area. I use a lot intraday setups for swing move, but that is other subject.
Target area was 28-30 areas. Depend on the pace and action.
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11272006val.jpg
After few days VAL gave up nice gap up and we follow intraday action and we got exit around 29.25 area. Risk was 30 cents, and we got 2.20 moves and that is risk/reward more then 6.
Important is to understand how to use patterns to find good r/r trades.
Hope all that make sense and if anyone have any question feel free to send me email
Wish all nice holidays.
Ivica
 
Don't you think often ascending triangles are tested sometimes quite a range below the bottom horizontal ascending trendline before the final breakout upward?

Or does this occur less often than not in your perception.

This can definitely affect the rr ratio.
 
Yes, that can happen sometime. In that case I will look for intraday setups, or I will go with the smaller lots. If stock will go from support right to the setup then very often we will see pullback much earlier the usual. Another way to trade that situation is buying (shorting) on pullback, but then you risk that you maybe won’t see pullback.
I didn’t count how often that will happen but I know how I will trade that if I really like chart, especially if I will find intraday setup (I use that method a lot).
Hope this make sense
Ivica
 
Market commentary for 11/27/2006

Good day!
Friday started at the intraday supportarea. For the QQQQ that was around the 5 min 200sma and for the SPY and the DIA around the 15 min 200sma. Since volume as expected was low and we are at a strong intraday support area it isn’t uncommon to see filling gap action right from open. Volume was light all day and generally Friday action was not important for the overall situation. it was important just for those who needed to trade. For me that was worthless day for trading.
For future action my bias is neutral, but I am starting to look for short ideas. There are several reasons for that. The first is the market needs to rest after this weekly move up. The daily resistance area is something that could stop this move up and start with a correction. Another reason is the 60 min pace. The QQQQ breakout pace is very poor, a lot weaker then move in to consolidation area. The SPY 60 min gave us only false breakout and the DIA 60 min rounding high. This action on all the Indices looks like market is very tired and in need of a rest. This isn’t automatically a short setup. That is very important to understand. Lots of newer traders like to short strong uptrend moves because they think that will get the same pace on a reversal. That is incorrect thinking.
A correction can be a base, it can be slow pace selling or can be the rounding highs with strong intraday bounces or can be a strong reversal. You can see that a strong reversal is just one option and all others options are too high risk for a short. I will continue to look for weak names to short and strong names for long trades. We are still in high risk market for swing traders and because of that I will start with half risk on new trades and then I will add to the position if situation will go well for me.
That is important part of becoming a profitable trader.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic


Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11272006mps.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11272006tsra.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11272006ph.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11272006cwtr.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11272006adm.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11272006wpi.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11272006csc.jpg

Tracking records
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl112006.htm - for November
 
Market commentary for 11/28/2006

Good day!
We finally got our trend day, however it was to the downside. We gapped down to the 200ma which was intraday support. The SPY filled the gap and that was the last of what we saw to the long side. You can see on SPY 5 min chart how strong the 20sma 5 min area is in a trend day. The SPY couldn’t break all day above that resistance area. That is the subject of my class today in the trading room. The important thing to see is that the selling from daily highs is stronger then buying at the daily high. This is telling us we may change the trend or at least not see a new daily high very soon. Volume was higher then usual during last few days and that is another indicator good for short traders. This is the action I expected and explained in yesterday’s market commentary. This is not a swing call for short side. We can't say that after just one down trend day. We can say we probably have seen the daily highs for a while. The SPY and the DIA closed under the 20ma daily support area what is another sign of selling pace. Most of time 20ma support area will hold on first try and that wasn’t case for SPY and DIA. The QQQQ has some room to come to that support area and I think that will be case today in the morning.
So I will expect selling at open, maybe a gap down, but I expect that QQQQ will touch the 20ma daily support area (blue line). After that I will look for consolidation on 30/60 min charts. I don’t expect much from today because we saw main move yesterday and it is good we had some good trades with that move yesterday.
It is very important to not overtrade today and important to not trade with same risk as yesterday. Main mission for today will be to protect that capital. So generally I expect a consolidation day which is common after a strong selling day.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11282006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11282006qqqq60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11282006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11282006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11282006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11252006dia60.jpg


Watch list for 11/28/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This market continues to be high risk for swing traders. My goal is to bring low risk trades to my watch list so the numbers of trade setups are fewer than usual. One of the most important traits of a successful trader is patience and right now until market conditions improve it is best to be patient. I trade the same setups that I post so for both yours and my long term success I hope you will understand why I am being patient and hope you will be also. Remember, sometimes being in cash is the best trade you can make.

LONG:

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
IACI long above: 35.55, stop under: 35.00 (35.15), target: 37 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11282006iaci.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 31, 2006

SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
EP short under: 13.50, stop above: 14.00, target: open ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11282006ep.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 06, 2006

Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11282006oi.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11282006fast.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11282006hans.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11282006ocr.jpg

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl112006.htm - for November
 
Market commentary for 11/29/2006

Good day!
After a trend day it not uncommon to see a consolidation day. That is pretty much what we saw. Yesterday we saw gap down and some whippy action at open. The market usually holds support the first time it tries to break daily support/or resistance area. After the bounce from support we saw a day consolidation and tight range action. In the last hour market woke up and broke modestly to the upside. You can see on intraday charts that pace wasn’t strong and I will expect that 60 min consolidation will continue today again. The QQQQ and the SPY stayed above the 200sma on 60 min chart what is strong intraday support area and first resistance is 20sma on the same time frame. Only the DIA has problems with 200sma 60 min for now and I will expect that will break that resistance in the morning.
Overall I expect that 20sma 60 min will hold today, at least for the morning and depending on the reaction from that resistance area we could easily see action between 200sma as support and 20sma as resistance. In that scenario we can expect that 60 min consolidation will continue today and that mean we will continue to look for intraday moves.
Swing trades are again high risk and it will be harder to find good setups. Swing traders must trade with smaller risk then usual.
I will go over % gainers and % losers list in the morning for some intraday setups. I will look for gap, trap trades and for strongest and weakest charts for intraday continuation.
Good luck trading today!!!!


http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006qqqq60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006dia60.jpg


Watch list for 11/29/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This market continues to be high risk for swing traders. My goal is to bring low risk trades to my watch list so the numbers of trade setups are fewer than usual. One of the most important traits of a successful trader is patience and right now until market conditions improve it is best to be patient. I trade the same setups that I post so for both yours and my long term success I hope you will understand why I am being patient and hope you will be also. Remember, sometimes being in cash is the best trade you can make.

LONG:

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
HES long above: 49.00 (48.80), stop under: 48.32, target: 50 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006hes.jpg

SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

ZOLT short under: 22.30, stop above: 23.00, target: 20 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006zolt.jpg

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
GVA short under: 49.46, stop above: 49.81, target: 48.50-48 areas http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006gva.jpg

Watch ideas:
Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006vphm.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006ceph.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006hans.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006ocr.jpg

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl112006.htm - for November


I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.
danded2005@inet.hr

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
 
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