swing-day trading US stocks

Good day!

Economic news continued to be poor with the ISM coming in lower than expected. Even with better than expected earnings news it appears to be some profit taking after a strong run up over the last 3 months. Technically the market continued to consolidate in the morning and rolled over into a trend day to the downside. The market found support at the 20sma on the daily charts. You can see that the afternoon selling into that daily support was the third selling wave on the 15 min charts. Most of the time after a third selling wave you need consolidation before a continuation is a possibility. That sounds good, but of course it isn't a rule and we could see another strong move down today especially in the morning. The market could be setting up for the Jobs report Friday morning. I personally think this whippy market will not be resolved until after the election on Tuesday.

Any move down would only be for day trade purposes because the 30/60 min charts need to consolidate before a lower risk swing setup can materialize. With strong daily support and the intraday extended move I expect another consolidation day on the 30/60 min charts. It is probably best to follow the market action for the first 15 minutes and see what opportunities the markets hold.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11022006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11022006qqqq15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11022006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11022006spy15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11022006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11022006dia15.jpg


Watch ideas:

With the market action last days best is to stay with the intraday moves. Yesterday CTV is good example:

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11012006ctv.jpg

You can see nice 60 min consolidation (base). We used 30.50 as the target area because of daily 100sma support area and that was nice intraday risk reward (around 2). Under is the 60 min chart after we closed trade.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11022006ctv.jpg

I found a number of possible day trades. It is important to evaluate them after the market opens and see what action can be taken. I will bring some ideas to this daily list under "day trade possibilities". All of these ideas can be interesting only as day trades. Please don't over trade them especially if they set up at the same time. I recommend only taking trades that you really like and understanding. More information’s and updates will be in the trading room.

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11022006df.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11022006alxn.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11022006o.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11022006pzza.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11022006avid.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11022006jec.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11022006dst.jpg

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
 
Watch list for 11/06/2006
LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

RX long above: 28.05, stop under: 27.40, target: 30 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006rx.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 18, 2006

IBN long above: 35.50, stop under: 34.58, target: 37.50-38 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006ibn.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 24, 2006
SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

BCO short under: 52.25, stop above: 53.06, target: 50 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006bco.jpg
Last/next earning date: ¸Nov 01, 2006

EQ short under: 48.27, stop above: 48.73, target: 46 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006eq.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 25, 2006


Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006bdk.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006josb.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006s.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006akam.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006algn.jpg
DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic

Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl102006.htm - for October
 
Good day!

Here is another example what we had yesterday.
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006rx.jpg

Setup was before 2 days. I liked weekly/monthly charts. Setup was above 28 with stop under 27.60. So risk was 60 cents and 30 as whole number was target area. Yesterday in the morning RX exploded and fast came to our target area. Very nice risk reward trade.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006rx.jpg
This is exit chart from yesterday. Congratulations to all takers.


Market commentary for 11/08/2006

Good day!

With the elections results last night traders are convinced that Washington will be gridlock for the next two years and that will be good for stocks. TOL and other homebuilders continue to post poor results, Oil continues to fall and the bond market rallies. All of that contributed to the early morning rally. Bottom line all we did was test the daily high resistance before a late turndown. The rally over the past two days could easily have been a short squeeze and yesterday morning could have been the top. We will have to wait to see.

Morning pace and volume was very nice. The DIA and the QQQQ made new daily highs (slightly new daily highs). Consolidation over noon was very nice and 20ma on the 5 and 15 min held very nice. Then we got one of my favorite patterns which is a 3rd try break. This pattern isn’t the holly grail and doesn't work every time, but it is important to know that lots of time if the 3rd try won’t go we can see stronger reversal. This is not pattern I will trade but it is good to know for open positions. That is the reason I told everyone in the room I was closing all open day trades.

For the rest of the day we saw the market continue to slowly sell off. The good news for swing traders the Indices stayed above 20sma 30 min which is important support area for swing traders.

I don’t have clear bias for today, but I’m more for bullish for the morning. This is not a strong swing bias. I will look for market direction at the open and look for lower risk day trades in the trading room.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006qqqq30.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006qqqq15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006spy15.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006spy15min.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006dia30.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006dia15.jpg


Tracking records:

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl052006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl062006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl072006.htm - for July
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl082006.htm - for August
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl092006.htm - for September
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl102006.htm - for October
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl112006.htm - for November


I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.
danded2005@inet.hr

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
 
Good day!!

For now very nice week. On the tracking records you can see results: http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl112006.htm - for November

I will bring just few examples what we had last days.

Example 1
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006rx.jpg - before setup
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006rx.jpg - exit

Example 2
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11082006komg.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11132006komg.jpg

Example 3
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11092006unh.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11132006unh.jpg

Example 4
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11062006s.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11132006s.jpg


Market commentary for 11/13/2006

Good day!

We saw a NR4 bar on the charts with Friday's trading. Often after that type of action we see a trend day. We will have to wait to see what develops today. Well Friday was a typical Friday, especially after the sell off on Thursday. The day was slow, choppy and very low volume. This is usually expected after a large move. Consolidation or rest is needed before the market usually continues. To be successful you must recognize days like these and trade appropriately. Taking on additional risk is just that and all too often a silly and very costly loss. As a swing trader days like Friday are worthless for me. High risk and few predictable moves.

On the QQQQ weekly chart you can see the resistance area which is very strong. On the daily charts the Indices broke trend and started consolidation. First support areas on the daily charts are the 20sma. The Indices just started this consolidation and we don’t have a clear direction for the market. I expect this type of high risk market for the next several weeks. That not means I wont trade, however to preserve capital I will trade with half risk and I will try to find “own way” stocks, like we had PGR.

I do not have any bias for today. My plan is to watch the market open and hopefully I will find some good day trade opportunities which I will first post in the trading room. I look forward to seeing you in there.


http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11132006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11132006qqqq60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11132006qqqqweekly.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11132006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11132006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11132006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11132006dia30.jpg

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions. danded2005@inet.hr

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
 
Watch list for 11/14/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
RACK long above: 35.08, stop under: 34.21, target: 40 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11142006rack.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 30, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
APPB long above: 24.05, stop under: 23.50, target: 25 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11142006appb.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 25, 2006

SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
NHP short under: 27.17, stop above: 27.60, target: 26.50-26 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11142006nhp.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 01, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
BEBE short under: 22.79, stop above: 23.20, target: 21-20 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11142006bebe.jpg
Last/next earning date: Jan 25, 2006

Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11142006coh.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11142006cg.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11142006amd.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11142006omg.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11142006ccj.jpg

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions. danded2005@inet.hr

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic

Tracking records:

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl112006.htm - for November
 
Market commentary for 11/15/2006

Good day!
The indices finally broke out. With the PPI much lower than expected and a Fed Governor dovish remarks set off a rally and or short covering taking all 3 indices to post 2001 highs. On the intraday charts you can see that the indices came into an intraday equal move resistance area. We must respect this area even though the quality of the breakout was good as I explained yesterday with all three indices showing strength.
Market action is still high risk for new swings because most of them setup yesterday during trading hours and that is another reason why is good to follow the market in the trading room. We had a number of setups the last couple days including a number of open positions I will use caution with new opportunities today. We came in situation when we have strong intraday move up in to resistance area and with that situation will high risk to take new trades right at start.
Because of that I only have two new setups on the watch list. I did bring several potential trades under watch ideas. As usual I will watch the opening action and bring any new ideas into the trading room.
This morning I have long bias. Indices have room for a continued move The QQQQ made a new monthly high and there is plenty of room. But again, for low risk setup the market needs consolidate. While swing trades have been difficult over the past month, day trade set ups in the trading room have given us a good month to date. So let’s see the open and let’s go with the market again.

Watch list for 11/15/2006
LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
ALV long above: 58.00 (57.80), stop under: 53.00 (55.00), target: open PT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11152006alv.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 26, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
SINA long above: 29.50, stop under: 29.25, target: 30 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11152006sina.jpg

Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11152006uctt.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11152006rimm.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11152006zz.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11152006omg.jpg
 
Market commentary for 11/16/2006

Good day!

We had a nice trend day going yesterday until FED minutes came out. Hawkish comments based on old information put a quick end to our bullish frenzy. When you look at the intraday and daily charts you can see that Indices need rest. On the daily charts the equal move up shows resistance. On intraday charts selling from high is on a stronger pace then buying. This can easily lead to an avalanche pattern on the 15 min charts. But what is important, we didn’t get swing short sign, the market just looks like a correction. For future possibilities it is important to see the result of that correction. Right now the Indices need rest and ultimately brings a high risk trading environment. You may hear the term the market is overbought and needs to back and fill. Remember the market can always get more overbought.

Today I expect a consolidation day. More like selling high, buying low day. That type of action doesn't fit my style so I anticipate a slower day for me. I will look for day trade setups for room and "own way" stocks.


Watch list for 11/16/2006

LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
DBRN long above: 22.50, stop under: 21.39 (21.92), target: 25-27.50 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11162006dbrn.jpg
Last/next earning date: Sep 26, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
CG long above: 62.29, stop under: 61.94, target: 63-64 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11162006cg.jpg

SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
COF short under: 76.33 (76.50), stop above: 77.50, target: open ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11162006cof.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 18, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
NTRS short under: 58.00 stop above: 58.50 (58.28), target: 57 DT, open ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11162006ntrs.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 18, 2006

Watch ideas:

Long:

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11162006rimm.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11162006syna.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11162006dd.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11162006im.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11162006cbk.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11162006ca.jpg

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl112006.htm - for November

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica
 
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