swing-day trading US stocks

Watch list for 10/17/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

For today is important to know that risk is higher. Because of that I will use small risk on every setup. This is part of risk management and that is very important part to be successful trader.
I did not find very many interesting setups for swing traders this morning. My goal is to bring you lower risk, higher probability trades. The market is now is higher risk for new swing setups so the number of swing trades possibilities are fewer. I will continue to work for your long term success. So please understand why there are fewer trade possibilities.


LONG:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

PSA long above: 89.75, stop under: 88.40, target: 95 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10172006psa.jpg
Last/next earning date: Aug 02, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

NHP long above: 28.00, stop under: 27.70, target: 29-30 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10172006nhp.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 01, 2006


SHORT:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

PGR short under: 24.50, stop above: 25.54, target: 22 areas ST
Last/next earning date: Aug 03, 2006
 
Watch list for 10/19/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

PSA long above: 89.75, stop under: 88.70, target: 93 areas http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10192006psa.jpg
Last/next earning date: Aug 02, 2006

IIIN long above: 22.45, stop under: 21.00, target: 25 (30) areas ST-PT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10182006iiin.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 20, 2006

SHORT:
Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

RHAT short under: 18.93, stop above: 19.35, target: 18 area DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10192006rhat.jpg

Watch ideas:

Long: http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10192006ikn.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10192006abbi.jpg

Short: http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10192006infa.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10192006ctx.jpg _________________________________________________________________________________
 
Market commentary for 10/20/2006

Good day!

We had another range day yesterday with very little change in all the indices. The 60 min charts stayed in a nice consolidation for all the indices, the weekly charts indicate the indices still need further consolidation for a low risk swing move up.

I will look at the 60 min triangle consolidation with a 3rd try possible for a move up this morning. I reiterate I will only use that for an intraday move. Today is Friday and as you know predictable action generally only occurs during the morning and poor choppy action after lunch into the close. Most of the time not worth any risk. Swing trades are still high risk, and I will again stay with intraday moves.

I am taking a few days vacation with my family and will not be in the trading room today. I will list only day trades on the watch list and swing trade possibilities will only be under watch ideas. If anyone needs help, please ask in room and an experienced trader will give his/her opinion.

Thank you for your support and I will be back in room on Monday.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006qqqq60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006dia60.jpg

Watch list for 10/20/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
PSA, IIIN, ABBI are still valid as swing trades.

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
PWR long above: 19.05, stop under: 18.75, target: 19.50-20 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006pwr.jpg

FOXH long above: 38.50, stop under: 38.00, target: 40 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006foxh.jpg


SHORT:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

DDS short under: 29.90, stop above: 30.50, target: 200sma daily ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006dds.jpg
Last/next earning date: Aug 14, 2006


Watch ideas:
Long: http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006svu.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006aep.jpg

Short: http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10202006bpop.jpg

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

Ivica Juracic
 
Market commentary for 10/24/2006

Good day!

Yesterday started with gap down, poor earning by Ford and a decline in the bond market. After some choppy action we had a strong intraday move up. For the QQQQ that was a move up to the daily high resistance area on the 60 min chart. You can easily see how the 3rd try can work. The SPY barely gave us a daily high and the DIA was again the strongest indice. You can see on the daily charts how the trend line can hold. Every time when indices touched that line we saw a bounce.
For today I don't expect any big change. I still think that the QQQQ could see another move up to the 43 weekly resistance areas. Don’t forget that the QQQQ is already in the resistance that area and that brings a higher risk for new swing trades.

Every new move up is bringing us to higher risk for new swing trades. Because of that I will again use intraday moves for today. I expect a range trading day. Remember this is earnings season. TXN a bellwether chip company guided down after the bell yesterday so we might see some weakness at the open. We must also be very cognizant of the Fed meeting taking place today and tomorrow. While a change in rates is not expected the tone (hawkish) based on recent events can be detrimental to the rally.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006qqqq60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006dia60.jpg


Watch list for 10/24/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
NHP long above: 28.06, stop under: 27.57, target: 29-30 areas DT –ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006nhp.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 01, 2006


Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
WFMI long above: 65.42, stop under: 64.50, target: 67.50 (70.00) ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006wfmi.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 02, 2006

PKX long above: 68.50, stop under: 67.95, target: 70 (72.50) DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006pkx.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 13, 2006


SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
HNZ short under: 41.24, stop above: 41.55, target: 40 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006hnz.jpg
Last/next earning date: Aug 31, 2006

Watch ideas:

Long: http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006dd.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006phrm.jpg

Short: http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006bow.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006cbss.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10242006bpop.jpg

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade


I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic

Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl102006.htm - for October
 
Market commentary for 10/26/2006

Good day!

The market did pretty much what the FED did yesterday, nothing. The day followed a typical Fed day with an upside move in the morning and consolidation during the day. After the decision was also typical with the market becoming volatile and choppy with the indices recovering in the final hour and closing strongly. As normal, the day after the Fed the indices will reverse and we will see a sell off that is range bound.

Earnings are the main driver of the market now. BA and GM both sold off after good earnings yesterday and Chip stocks had a significant bounce which may bode well for the QQQQ to finally get through resistance. Today is the busiest reporting day of the season. XOM reports before the bell.

I expect the indices to be volatile and high risk today and tomorrow. I will stay away from swing trades and stay with intraday moves unless I find an "own way" stock chart.


http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006qqqq.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006dia60.jpg


Those days are hard to bring sure setups because it is very important to see market open during earning season. I will bring some ideas, but it is very important to see action at the open and then make decision, because of that if anyone need more info you can find me in trading room.
It is very important to not overtrade, so bring them all small; right now isn’t good market for huge risk. It will come again and save money for that.

Wish you all good trading day!!!!!!!!!!!!

Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006gymb.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006ibm.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006ccl.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006rhat.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006psa.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006chs.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10262006uri.jpg
 
Market commentary for 10/27/2006

Good day!
Typical action after the Fed day with the market volatility. Predicted selling and then a strong intraday recovery. The QQQQ was the strongest index getting back to the high resistance area. Concerning was the lack of follow though the SPY and the DIA had. While the QQQQ already gave a smaller 15 min consolidation for the new high the other indices came to the high resistance and there is a danger of a double top pattern. Fortunately the other indices finally did move up based on the QQQQ strength.

The QQQQ continues to go deeper and deeper into resistance and we can see the correction on the daily base. I think this is when they say the market is overbought but it can become more overbought.

The market continues to be moving to earnings and news. Swing trades continue to be high risk and I will follow intraday moves. We had several very nice day trades yesterday (CCL, CELG, SYNA, SVU, SBUX). Today is Friday which generally means a slower day with most predictable action in the morning.

Trade small and trade smart and trade with what the market will give us. It is best today to follow the open and watch the setups on the list. I recommend joining us in the trading room to follow the market. I will scan the market at the open and identify the strongest and weakest names and make our trading decisions at that time.


http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006qqqq.jpg
_____________________http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006dia60.jpg

Watch list for 10/27/2006

Trade small and trade smart and trade with what the market will give us. It is best today to follow the open and watch the setups on the list. I recommend joining us in the trading room to follow the market. I will scan the market at the open and identify the strongest and weakest names and make our trading decisions at that time.

LONG:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

PSA long above: 89.75, stop under: 87.63, target: 95-100 areas http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006psa.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 02, 2006


Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
PKX long above: 70.70, stop under: 70.25, target: 72 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006pkx.jpg

STLD long above: 62.10 (61.75), stop under: 61.20, target: 65 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006stld.jpg

Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006utsi.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006ibm.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006wag.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006teva.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006uri.jpg

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade


I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic


Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl102006.htm - for October
 
Part of Friday morning action and trade explanations

COHU
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006cohu.jpg
My charts are very simply so we have here morning gap up after first 10 min sell of COHU bounced from 20.50 support area and made nice 5 min triangle.
I always look for consolidations (base, triangle, and flag). After move up equal move and 21.50 as number area was enough reason for target area.
Right now COHU forming another triangle consolidation at highs and it is again valid above high of day.
You can see on 60 min that is also continuation pattern.

ELX
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006elx.jpg
Same situation as COHU, just different direction.
Triangle consolidation after move down. That gave us a nice risk reward possibility.
Didn’t see my target area but you can see that was worth for risk what we had. That was also the 15 min continuation pattern. I always watch more time frames and I look for pattern combination.
All what I explain here on any setup is very simply. But unfortunately that isn’t enough to be successful trader.
Whole picture from more time frames is ..imo ..one big reason for that and because of that I cant trade without my screen. My biggest tool.

TIE
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10272006tie.jpg
TIE 60 min. I will talk little bit about that trade. Because that is combination of few time frames. at setup point that was nice base on the 5 min chart. Really tight base, so risk was only 20 cents, but as I always say that need to see situation on the other time frames. I see best support on the 60 min chart this line is the 20sma support area.
It is very important support/resistance area on the any time frame chart
TIE is uptrend stock on the 60 min chart. After that we saw the triangle consolidation and then we got combination of the 3rd try triangle and bounce from the 20sma support area so we have nice stuffs on our side.
Risk was 20 cents. I was close that one at the 33 area. With entry and stop amount it was r/r around 1/4
With ELX, COHU, STLD as winners and BLUD, AGP as losses. Lets say that TIE covered those 2 losses, still must be profitable morning.
On TIE 60 min chart...I won’t expect that we will see equal move target area that easily.
First will be previous high resistance area and that one will be strong resistance area.
Reason is that consolidation is to short for that possibility
 
Market commentary for 10/30/2006

Good day!
After a number of green bars or up days on the daily charts we finally got a red bar and a negative day. Is that the top??, Perhaps, but nothing goes straight up forever and until we get a clear signal I am still bullish on this market.
On the weekly QQQQ chart you can see the pivot bar which can be a signal for top but that is not pattern for a short setup. From there we can see consolidation at the high or a slight correction. The same can be said for other Indices. The only thing can be said after Friday's intraday strong selling is the Indices are still in uptrend and the support area is still holding. Time will tell if the uptrend line will hold or not. In any case I won’t go with a short bias until I see a reversal pattern.
Next week I expect that market will start with a daily consolidation (correction). It is important to see the pace of that correction and then we will see our expectations for a future move.
Consolidation usually brings a high risk market with possibilities for strong intraday moves. Because of this increased risk I will reduce my risk until the market shows us a good swing opportunity. I will base my action depending on the intraday market breadth.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006qqqqweekly.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006qqqq60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006qqqq15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006spy60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006spy15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006dia60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006dia15.jpg


Watch list for 10/30/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:
Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

MAT long above: 22.56, stop under: 22.40, target: 23.00 area DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006mat.jpg

SVU long above: 33.68, stop under: 33.50, target: 34.50-35 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006svu.jpg


SHORT:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

BPOP short under: 17.93, stop above: 18.17, target: 17 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006bpop.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 13, 2006

URI short under: 24.21, stop above: 24.81, target: 23 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006uri.jpg
Last/next earning date: OCT 31, 2006

TEVA short under: 33.19, stop above: 33.63, target: 32 – 31 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006teva.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 07, 2006

Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006pld.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006ara.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006gtrc.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006usg.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006in.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006ceco.jpg

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl102006.htm - for October

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
 
Market commentary for 10/31/2006

Good day!

All said and done yesterday we saw another classic consolidation day. The QQQQ was the strongest indice and had the strongest intraday move, however at the day’s end it didn't make a significant move up. The morning started with consolidation and the saw the 200ma 15 min support area was to strong and the first try to break above the 5 min resistance failed. The daily uptrend line and the 200ma support area was to strong and resulted in an intraday bounce, especially on the QQQQ chart. The DIA and SPY didn't show much power and finished near the days low. The volume on that consolidation was low and that in my opinion that is telling us about today's expectations. This may be a carryover from the very weak GDP numbers from Friday.

The daily trend line probably will not hold and we will see another round of selling. Put very simply looking at Monday's action (consolidation at the lows for the SPY and the DIA) combined with low volume means the buyers were not interested for another bounce from the strong daily support.

That is my expectation, but as usual I will follow market. For now I will stay with intraday moves, I will post those potential day trades during the day in the trading room.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006qqqqweekly.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006qqqq60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006qqqq15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006spy60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006spy15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006dia60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006dia15.jpg


I will explain 2 trades what we had yesterday. One is from the watch list what was posted here yesterday and one is from the trading room.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006mat.jpg

Despite of the Friday intraday selling MAT held very nice. That is what I like because I was look for yesterday intraday bounce from strong trend line support area on the daily charts. I don’t expect swing move up again right now, but that not mean we can’t get intraday moves, and MAT held very nice. Show us nice strength and I like that 60 min triangle action what gave us worth risk reward..

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10312006mat.jpg

You can see that MAT saw resistance area and that brought us around 2:1 reward/risk. I’m satisfied with that result in the market consolidation type of action.
On the daily chart MAT have more room for up, but as I explained this is not best time for new swing trades.

Second example is:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10302006tues.jpg

That was a room call and I want to show you that 60 min consolidation. Take a look how important is 20sma support area. I have 20sma on every time frame chart. That is very important support/resistance area. On the 5 min chart I use them for faster trades and that area helping me to for trend expectations. Same is for the bigger time frames, but then for longer intraday/daily trends. Because of that I use them a lot for my trading.
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10312006tues.jpg


I found a number of possible day trades. It is important to evaluate them after the market opens and see what action can be taken. I will bring some ideas to this daily list under "day trade possibilities". All of these ideas can be interesting only as day trades. Please don't over trade them especially if they set up at the same time. I recommend only taking trades that you really like and understanding. These ideas are just for the morning. For updates you can check in the trading room.

Watch ideas:
Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10312006bks.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10312006driv.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10312006rimm.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10312006usg.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10312006at.jpg


Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl102006.htm - for October

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
 
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