swing-day trading US stocks

Watch list for 10/06/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I did not find very many interesting setups for swing and day traders this morning. My goal is to bring you lower risk, higher probability trades. The market is now is higher risk for new setups so the number of swing and day trades possibilities are fewer. I will continue to work for your long term success. So please understand why there are fewer trade possibilities.


LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

BCR long above: 76.67 (76.28), stop under: 74.65, target: 80 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10062006bcr.jpg
Last/next earning date: July 19, 2006

SYKE long above: 20.70, stop under: 19.65 (20.25), target: 23-25 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10062006syke.jpg
Last/next earning date: Aug 07, 2006

SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
WTR short under: 21.50, stop above: 22.10, target: open ST
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10032006wtr.jpg
Last/next earning date: Aug 02, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
NTES short under: 16.50, stop above: 16.78, target: 16 – open DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10032006ntes.jpg
Last/next earning date: Aug 14, 2006

Watch ideas:
Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10032006schs.jpg - ST
 
Good day,

We have nice week behind us. Like to show a few examples what we had here and in the room. Just for educational purposes. I think my style is very simply. I use based breakout knowledge. If anyone will have any question feels free contact me on email.

KMB
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10032006kmb.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10092006kmb.jpg .
SPG
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10032006spg.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10092006spg.jpg

DRI
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10042006dri.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10092006dri.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl102006.htm - for October

Wish all nice weekend
Ivica
 
Watch list for 10/10/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

CBL long above: 42.50, stop under: 42.00, target: 44.00 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10102006cbl.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 02, 2006

FOXH long above: 35.15, stop under: 34.00, target: 40 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10102006foxh.jpg
Last/next earning date: Aug 02, 2006


Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

HOT long above: 61.00, stop under: 60.24, target: 62.50-63 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10102006hot.jpg

SCSC long above: 32.40, stop under: 31.75, target: 34 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10102006dia.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 26, 2006

USB long above: 33.75, stop under: 33.60, target: 34.50-35 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10102006usb.jpg
Last/next earning date: July 18, 2006


SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
SWIR short under: 11.35, stop above: 11.65, target: 10 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10102006swir.jpg
Last/next earning date: July 27, 2006


Watch ideas:
Long: PHRM, ETR


DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade
 
Hi Ivica,

I like your journal and way of trading. Thank you for it. I was asking some questions in PM but then I realised maybe this may also be interesting for other readers so I will just post here.

How do you open the position? Do you use a stop limit order when the price reaches your entry target? Or do you open the position right before closing time if the entry target has been reached?

I have been using your method but don't always have the time to keep on following the stocks so I use stop limit orders.

regards,
Ivo
 
HI,

I use a limit orders because most of the time I'm near my computer. But when I can’t be then I use stop limit order. I like to do all manually and that is the reason why I'm most of trading hours near computer.
Also for others. When I write, example, long above 42.50, that mean above and that is usual 5-10 cents on that price. Here is general rule. Please note: that is general, sometime is more or less, depend on the risk and trading plan:
on $10 or under 1-2 cents break, $10-15 2 cents, $15-20 3 cents, $20-30 3-5 cents, $30-40 3-6 cents (the more volatile the more you use), $40-50 5-8 cents, $50-60 8-10cents, $60+ 10 cents or more

Hope this help. :)
Regards
ivica
 
Market commentary for 10/11/2006

Good day!
Another range day and the plot thicken. The few pennies to a new high did nothing to change my opinion. Expectations and the whole commentary are same as yesterday. I am worried that the longer the indices stay in such a tight range the higher probability of a false breakout occurring. That means I will wait for the main breakout and then go with continuation patterns. I continue to trade with smaller risk and try to avoid a false breakout until we have a clear direction.

My bias for today remains bullish but the difference is I will wait to see the main move first. I will maintain my risk level at 50 percent until there is a clear direction.

With DNA and AA reporting earnings after the close we began earnings season. Holding positions into earnings can be quite risky. Both companies are trading sharply lower after poor results. This is also the period of time companies preannounce. Note a stock we traded yesterday, LM. It preannounces after the bell and is now trading 10 points lower than the close. As a trader these are variables that must be considered.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10112006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10112006qqqq60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10112006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10112006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10112006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10112006dia60.jpg

Watch list for 10/11/2006

LONG:
Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
WLT long above: 44.00, stop under: 43.50, target: 45-46 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10112006wlt.jpg

Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl102006.htm - for October

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
 
Watch list for 10/12/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
AMR long above: 25.46, stop under: 24.70, target: 27-28 DT-ST
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10122006amr.jpg
Last/next earning date: July 19, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
ROK long above: 60.24, stop under: 59.50 (59.85), target: 62.50 DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10122006rok.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 23, 2006


SHORT:

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
NTES short under: 16.50 stop above: 16.75, target: 16 (15) areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10122006ntes.jpg
Last/next earning date: Aug 14, 2006


Watch ideas:

Long: SAFC, FOXH, TSO
Short: UCBH, XMSR

Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl102006.htm - for October


Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
 
Market commentary for 10/13/2006


Good day!
We finally got our move out of consolidation. The QQQQ finally broke out of its 15 min triangle around 2:00pm following the higher highs on the SPY and the DIA.

What now? The QQQQ has come to its weekly resistance area "around" the 42 to 43 area. So we don't know where this move will finish. The indices finished the day very strong and on daily chart they have enough room for another up day. You can see that on daily charts and I will look for an equal move to the resistance area combined with whole number resistance area. The volume yesterday's breakout was strong and with the charts pointing up I will expect another strong day. We must pay attention to other variables. For instance yesterday "the beige book" came out around 2:00pm and it fueled the rally in the QQQQ. The QQQQ still have room for the 15 min equal to resistance area but we are also in the earnings season. That can always change our expectations so it is important to use caution

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10132006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10132006qqqq15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10132006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10132006spy60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10132006spy15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10132006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10132006dia60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10132006dia15.jpg


I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic


Watch list for 10/13/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

SYKE long above: 20.70, stop under: 19.60, target: open DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10132006syke.jpg
Last/next earning date: Aug 07, 2006


Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

SAFC long above: 61.00, stop under: 60.75, target: 60 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10132006safc.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 31, 2006

SPG long above: 94.70, stop under: 94.20, target: open (96 areas) DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10132006spg.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 30, 2006

Watch ideas:
Long: USB, CTDC
Short: NTES

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
 
SCSS example

SCSS is a good example what we had the last week. That was a call from the 10/09/2006 above 23.14 with the stop under the 22.75. Target for the day traders was at the $24 areas and for the swing traders at the $25 areas (Expected that won’t see 25 areas first day).

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10092006scss.jpg

On the 60 min chart you can see nice triangle consolidation after the move up from the 22 areas (first blue line). That triangle pattern gave us a nice risk reward possibility and that is key for my style. Without the good risk reward possibilities I don’t want take any trade, it is same for the any time frame possibility (scalp, day, and swing or position trade). On the other time frames you can see that the SCSS is the uptrend stock and that have enough room for that target area. The first day we saw the 24 areas what was day trade target area and the second day we saw a finally target. Right now SCSS stayed strong with another consolidation at high and I will follow that one for another trade above the daily highs. But since it is already at the 25 area (that is a bigger number resistance area) and the daily equal move resistance I will look for faster trade possibility, and that is hard call for the journal post because first I want see open at the Monday and then will decide and because of that I cover that type of trades in trading room.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006scss.jpg

Here is the 60 min chart with results after the first and the second day. The risk reward results are very important for me and it is main measure for success, in my opinion, because SCSS trade must cover a few negative trades and that is a good way to be successful trader.
If anyone will have any questions feel free to ask

Good weekend to all
Ivica

p.s. my apologies for any grammar mistakes.
 
Market commentary for 10/16/2006

Good day!
The market remains strong heading into the new week. Friday we had a low volume consolidation day with an upward bias. You can see on the 15 min QQQQ chart is has reached the equal move (42.50) resistance area. The same is evident on the 60 min SPY
nd DIA charts. The daily and the weekly charts show us there is more room for a continued upside move this week. This situation is especially difficult since with earnings and news this market can continue or reverse very quickly. The charts can support a move in either direction. Risk is high for new swing trades. I will continue to look for intraday possibilities for now and I will also look at my open swing positions for possible setups to add to those positions. But for new trades I will look for smaller time frames. I am always on the lookout to find stocks with "own way" and then I will go with the normal swing expectations. If anyone has any questions, please join me in the trading room for more details.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006qqqq15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006dia60.jpg


Watch list for 10/16/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
SYKE long above: 20.70, stop under: 19.60, target: open ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006syke.jpg
Last/next earning date: Aug 07, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
NHP long above: 28.00, stop under: 27.70 (27.40), target: 29-30 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006snhp.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 01, 2006


SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
PGR short under: 24.50, stop above: 25.54, target: 22 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006pgr.jpg
Last/next earning date: Aug 03, 2006

BBX short under: 13.50, stop above: 13.75, target: open ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006bbx.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 18, 2006

Watch ideas:
Long: http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006nbix.jpg

Short: http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10162006mlnm.jpg


DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.

Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic
 
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