swing-day trading US stocks

Market commentary for 09/26/2006

Good day!

Well, that was a really whippy start of the week. On Monday, the market opened with a nice gap up, near Friday’s high resistance area, which almost turned the indices into a bear trap setup. The morning gap didn’t hold for too long and after 1str reversal period (9:45am) we saw strong intraday selling to the Friday’s low support area. I do admit that the market surprised me because I was expecting to see a consolidation longer than the 15 min “V” pattern. Next, I changed my intraday bias from short to long, especially after a 15 min C&H setup.
We saw 3 buying waves on the15 min charts and they brought the indices to the daily high resistance area.

The daily charts looked nice for another swing move up, but when I checked the weekly charts, I was hesitating with that possibility. Due to the weekly resistance area, I will remain in cautionary mode and trade with the half of the usual risk. Bias is on the long side for tomorrow, and I will follow consolidation on 30/60 min because after 3 buying waves indices need longer intraday consolidation before any low risk setup possibility.

So, generally for tomorrow, I hope the indices will form a consolidation day, which could bring us a higher possibility for a nice move up on Wednesday. Everything else will be just for day trade purposes.


http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09262006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09262006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09262006dia.jpg

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic


Watch list for 09/26/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


This market continues to be high risk for swing traders. My goal is to bring low risk trades to my watch list so the numbers of trade setups are fewer than usual. One of the most important traits of a successful trader is patience and right now until market conditions improve it is best to be patient. I trade the same setups that I post so for both yours and my long term success I hope you will understand why I am being patient and hope you will be also. Remember, sometimes being in cash is the best trade you can make. My advice for Monday is: don’t over trade!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

RTN long above: 48.00, stop under: 47.35, target: 50 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09262006rtn.jpg
Earning date: Oct 26, 2006


Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

GYMB long above: 43.08, stop under: 42.39, target: 45 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09262006gymb.jpg
Earning date: Nov 15, 2006

SHORT:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

MEOH short under: 23.24, stop above: 23.50, target: 22.50 (22.00) areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09262006meoh.jpg
Earning date: Oct 25, 2006


Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09262006skt.jpg - ST
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09262006usb.jpg - ST

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09262006ebay.jpg - ST


Ivica Juracic


DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade


Tracking records:

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl052006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl062006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl072006.htm - for July
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl082006.htm - for August
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl092006.htm - for September
 
Watch list for 09/27/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09272006usb.jpg - ST
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09272006vfc.jpg - ST
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09272006schs.jpg - ST
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09272006infy.jpg - ST

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09272006mxim.jpg - DT-ST
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09272006avid.jpg - DT
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09272006gnss.jpg - ST
 
Watch list for 09/28/2006

LONG:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

RTN long above: 48.00, stop under: 47.35, target: 50 areas ST- valid from yesterday http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09262006rtn.jpg
Earning date: Oct 26, 2006

JNY long above: 33.00, stop under: 32.50, target: 35 areas ST – valid from yesterday http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09282006jny.jpg
Earning date: July 26, 2006


Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

UBB long above: 73.75, stop under: 73.00, target: 76 areas DT- ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09282006ubb.jpg
Earning date: Nov 09, 2006

SHORT:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

GNSS short under: 11.80 stop above: 12.20, target: 10 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09282006gnss.jpg
Earning date: July 27, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

KOMG short under: 32.85, stop above: 33.60, target: 31 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09282006komg.jpg
Earning date: Oct 25, 2006


Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09282006thqi.jpg - DT
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09282006schs.jpg - ST
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09282006eagl.jpg - DT


DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

Tracking records:

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl052006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl062006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl072006.htm - for July
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl082006.htm - for August
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl092006.htm - for September


Ivica Juracic
 
Hi AlpineTruot,

All trades are listed in the September. All trades what had the setup. UPS was on 09/05/2006 watch list with setup above: 71.19, and stop under 70.50. As you can see on 09/05/2006 UPS was opened with the gap at 71.47. With that gap up in the morning UPS watch list setup wasn’t valid anymore. I use gap rule when I have that situation, but centrally original trading plan isn’t valid anymore when the entry price isn’t same.
At 09/01/2006 I was post call under 377, but as you can see on chart daily low was at 377.19, and that can’t be loss trade

Ivica

p.s. My apologies for the mistakes. Those who follow my work know that English isn’t my first language, but I’m learning.
 
Ok, then you're taking stocks like GOOG off your WatchList for the day, if they don't breakout that day? Or, was it taken off the (short) WatchList, because it broke above the triangle, before breaking below 377? Just trying to understand what you're doing.

Also, what's going on with the links to the charts?

Do you take all these trades yourself?
 
If stock will break under/above the stop area before the setup then my trading plan is done and I will not take that trade. I will follow in case if will be interesting for the any other setup, but that trading plan is done for me. I'm a swing trader and I trade only the stocks what I have on the watch list. I bring here ideas for those who like what I do, but depend on market I will take them. I don’t trade them all if the market is whippy for the trading.
Stock under the watch ideas are just ideas for the start and depend on developing during market hours I will decide. In my primary focus are stocks on watch list, with exactly trading plan.
 
Market commentary for 09/29/2006

Good day!

We finally started to see the consolidation or rest we have been looking for. We basically saw no change in the indices on the daily charts. On the 60 min charts you can see nice consolidations, but for the low risk setup we still need a longer rest. Usually the last few days of the quarter brings window dressing and today we should expect to see some. I expect a mixed situation for the day, window dressing, profit taking and slow Friday afternoon trading. All together that probably means choppy trading.
My bias for today is bullish especially during the morning. Market is still in a higher risk area for the swing trades. Open swing shorts didn’t have nice day yesterday and that is signally us of a strong market. There is no reason to fight the tape until we see a clear direction on the charts. Be prepared for another “day/fast trade” day.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09292006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09292006qqqq60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09292006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09292006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09292006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09292006dia60.jpg

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic

Watch list for 09/29/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I found a few possible day trades. It is important to evaluate them after the market opens and see what action can be taken. Please don't over trade, especially if all will set up at the same time. I recommend only taking trades that you really like and understanding.
The market is now is higher risk for new swing setups so the number of swing trades possibilities are fewer. I will continue to work for your long term success. So please understand why there are fewer trade possibilities.

LONG:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

FLIR long above: 37.50, stop under: 26.50, target: 30 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09292006flir.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 26, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

XL long above: 69.20, stop under: 68.80, target: 70 areas DT
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09292006xl.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 24, 2006


SHORT:
Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

AVID short under: 36.00, stop above: 34.44, target: 35.00 areas DT
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09292006avid.jpg

WOR short under: 17.00, stop above: 17.18, target: 16.50 DT
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09292006wor.jpg

Watch ideas:
Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09292006apol.jpg - ST
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09292006bobj.jpg - DT


I am always available via email if you have any questions.
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic


DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade


Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl092006.htm - for September
 
Market commentary for 10/02/2006

Good day!
Quarter is done. Morning action didn’t bring the move up what I expected. Despite of that we saw very narrow range action. Most of the day wasn’t tradable for the style what I use. Since I’m a breakout trade and without the trend I don’t trade, the Friday morning action was good time for patience training.
After the launch break indices lost the 15 min triangle pattern and all broke down. The QQQQ was weakest in that action and after 15 min base we saw move down. Same was with the SPY and DIA. On the daily charts you can see that the resistance area hold last week move up. Indices still have the resistance overhead on the weekly charts and from my eyes that will hold that area for this week.
Because of that the swing traders are still in the higher risk market and that will be the case until indices won’t form the daily pattern. On the 60 min charts you can see that consolidation area are still holding and we didn’t get the short signal. So my bias for the Monday is mixed and right now I will stick with the intraday moves. I believe that the weekly resistance will hold but that not mean we can go right away with the shorts, because we can see the daily/weekly consolidation at high, and we can see selling from resistance. Anything can happen, but the right now we don’t have clear signal for the any direction.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10022006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10022006qqqq60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10022006qqqq15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10022006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10022006spy60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10022006spy15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10022006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10022006dia60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10022006dia15.jpg

Watch list for 10/02/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
MEOH long above: 24.51, stop under: 22.90, target: 30 areas ST
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10022006meoh.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 25, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
CTV long above: 33.00, stop under: 32.41, target: 35 areas (40 areas) DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10022006ctv.jpg
Last/next earning date: July 26, 2006

AAPL long above: 77.50, stop under: 76.50, target: 80 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10022006aapl.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 18, 2006

SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
BMET short under: 32.00, stop above: 32.50, target: 30.50 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10022006bmet.jpg
Last/next earning date: Sep 20, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
SFD short under: 26.86, stop above: 27.12, target: 26 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10022006sfd.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 30, 2006


Watch ideas:
Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10022006syke.jpg - ST
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10022006kmb.jpg DT-ST

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10022006wor.jpg - DT-ST
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/10022006safm.jpg - DT


Following charts:

Long: FLS, HNZ, RF, ASO, JPM, USB, LEMD, VAL, AG, IACI, SPG, GGP, CTL, PHRM, BCR, NWS.A, UDR

Short: PCR, GGB, MLI, UNH, USG, GGG, ADM, IMCL

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl092006.htm - for September

p.s. My apologies for the mistakes. Those who follow my work know that English isn’t my 1st language, but I’m learning. :)

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions. danded2005@inet.hr

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top