swing-day trading US stocks

Market commentary for 08/30/2006:

Good day!

Right at the open the indices started with weak action and an increase in selling pressure. However, Monday's lows held for QQQ, DIA and SPY during the intraday action, ultimately consolidating midday as
all waited the FOMC minutes at 2pm.

When we have a tight consolidation like we had yesterday before the FOMC minutes there is a high risk for a false initial break. I always wait to enter on the break following the consolidation after the initial break. You can see this situation on QQQ, SPY and DIA 5 min charts. Right at 2pm the initial false move was down with strong volume. Following that we saw a strong intraday move up to the high of the day resistance areas. Sure, the initial move might not be false, but again, it's important to note that in that case when we have a tight base, we have a high possibility of a false break. Therefore it's worth repeating, I will wait for the initial move and after the consolidation I will go with the market action.

On the daily charts we didn't see big changes. All of the indices failed to push through their resistance areas. I will stay with the same risk amount as I mentioned yesterday, ie., smaller lots. For a future
breakout I'd like to see intraday consolidation because the technical stop will be under yesterday's low which isn't a good r/r amount for my style. For me then nothing changes for today, I will trade with smaller risk than usual and I will add positions on the next 30/60 min opportunities.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/08302006qqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/08302006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/08302006dia.jpg

Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic
 
Watch list for 08/31/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

RBAK long above: 19.35, stop under: 17.88, target: 23.50 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/08312006rbak.jpg
Earning date: July 25, 2006

RNWK long above: 11.00, stop under: 10.00, target: 15 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/08312006rnwk.jpg
Earning date: July 27, 2006

Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic


DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

Daily watch list tracking records:

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl052006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl062006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl072006.htm - for July
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl082006.htm - for August
 
Watch list for 09/01/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

NWL long above: 27.00, stop under: 26.50, target: open ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09012006nwl.jpg
Earning date: July 27, 2006

AAPL long above: 69.00, stop under: 66.66, target: 80 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09012006aapl.jpg
Earning date: Oct 18, 2006

PTV long above: 27.00, stop under: 26.50, target: 28 areas (30 areas) ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09012006ptv.jpg
Earning date: July 24, 2006


Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

FCX long above: 58.50, stop under: 58.00, target: 60 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09012006fcx.jpg
Earning date: July 18, 2006

SHORT:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

GM short under: 29.00, stop above: 29.50, target: 27.50 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09012006gm.jpg
Earning date: July 26, 2006

RTI short under: 42.50, stop above: 44.50, target: open ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09012006rti.jpg
Earning date: July 31, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09012006akam.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09012006goog.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09012006rdn.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09012006ir.jpg


Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic


DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

Daily watch list tracking records:

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl052006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl062006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl072006.htm - for July
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl082006.htm - for August
 
Market commentary for 09/01/2006:

Good day!

Absolutely nothing changed from the yesterday market commentary, only that we had narrowest trading day in the last 7 days. This is important information because after the NR7 day (narrowest day in last 7 days) very often we will see a trend day. Now is questioning what direction. That is really hard to say now because I still can see a double top on the daily charts and I can see strong downtrend day, but also easily we can see strong move up. That will bring added risk in the morning trading. Most of the time when we have same situation like today, when we expect trend day, important is the 60 min high/low. And in what direction will break after 60 min that will be trend for rest of day. Of course that is all generally opinion, and situation what we had most of time, but that not mean that is rule. I will expect whippy morning action, especially if indices will open in range without morning gap. After long consolidation we must be careful of false breakout and because of that I will trade with smaller lots and after confirmation I will add my positions. I will watch that 60 min high/low and I will go with that. If we will have trend day in line then in last hour you will like to be in position because in trend days last hour can bring huge (extended) moves in to close. On intraday action I like to see indices at least above 15 min 20ma support if we will see uptrend move, or under 20ma resistance area if we will see downtrend move. So generally I will look tomorrow for trend day, but I won't go blind with that idea, I will follow market as usual.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/08312006qqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/08312006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/08312006dia.jpg

Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic
 
Few examplaes from watch list what I post every day.



1 SAFM

Setup date: 08/31/2006

Long above: 30.20, stop under: 29.80, target: 32.00 areas, exit: 31.65, r/r: 3.11

Setup chart:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/08312006safm.jpg

Exit chart:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09052006safm.jpg


2 BXP

Setup date: 08/28/2006

Long above: 100.05, stop under: 99.50, target: 101.00 areas, exit: 101.00, r/r: 1.73

Setup chart:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/08282006bxp.jpg

Exit chart:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/09052006bxp.jpg



Ivica Juracic
 
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