Swing and Intraday Set-ups

I don't pay a lot of attention to the H&S formation in MANU because it is so huge relative to the trading range of the stock.

Shortee, anything can happen in the markets and nothing would surprise me. I would not enter until I see a surge in both volume and price. Until then the jury is out and even then they sometimes return the wrong verdict. That's what stops are for.
 
I've noticed in Praetorian2 stocks he did well on Friday that the volume and price issue really stuck out. Dufferdon, I like you to give an analysis on these stocks. FIC, AZO and ITMN. Now Praetorian bought these on the close of Thursday and sold em on Friday for a nice profit. Check out the volume on Thursday on all three stocks. At least twice or much more then normal volume a sharp decline in price on basically oversold conditions according to my stochs. on basically uptrending stocks. This was followed by a nice bounce on Friday. If anyone else wants to comment on this volume/price action please join in. A rather interesting setup for a nice profit.
 
Duff, english is my second language ,; were you sarcastic in your last post adressed to me (EGGDUFFER) or did I say something to offend you?

Good luck monday, all!
Alex
 
Here's a list of potential longs:

FMKT, CDWC, PFCB, JBHT, RPM TRID, KLIC, CC, CBH, FDX, ICST

QMDC, CHRD, FBN, PEGS, CCBL, MMSI, ZL, ROAD, ABFS, TSCO

SWTX, DSWL, HDTV

I wish there was a way to post a chart for all of them. But since
I don't want to take up the whole thread, you guys are going to
have to check the daily chart yourselves :-)

Feel free to critique my selections, afterall we're all here to learn
from each other!
 
For Shortee

FIC

Take a look at the 30-min chart for Thursday and Friday. Heavy volume on the decline. Thursday early afternoon volume declines and price stabilizes = cover short. Most of afternoon price flat and volume drying up = stay on sidelines. Late afternoon price flat and volume increases = prepare to enter. Very early Friday price and volume both surge = enter long. Soon after price peaks and volume declines = exit. Rest of Friday price flat volume dries up = stay on sidelines. Seems to fit the rules of thumb.

AZO

30-min chart again. First hint of trouble was that little spike in volume on the last bar of the day Christmas Eve with price declining. Not sufficient to go short. However on Wednesday first bar Price down volume up = sell short. Later price troughing, volume decreasing = cover short, then price flat, volume decreasing = stay on sidelines. Late Wednesday, early Thursday price flat, volume increasing = be ready to enter. Then volume increasing price decreasing = go short again. The price stabilization and volume decline from 12 to 1 p.m. may have justified a cover short, but then the price decline and volume increase would have justified re-establishing short. Volume continued high for the rest of the day and price continued to decline. Price pops a bit at the open Friday which would have triggered my stop. Then price flat, volume deceases = stay on sidelines followed price and volume increases = go long.

The volume behaviour at the bottom is interesting. I attribute it to the strong support from the plateau on the chart throughout mid November to early December. Therefore, instead of the selling running its course with volume declining while price decreased it played itself out at that support. Certainly the rules of thumb gave lots of opportunity to profit on the short side before that event.

ITMN

Commentary would be very similar to AZO except that this time the support that kicked in was the trough in early November. The late day price and volume surge on Friday may have caused a long entry, but I would likely have exited due to the subsequent volume behaviour or at least had a very tight stop (price up volume declines = exit long)
 
thanks for your analysis Dufferdon. I'd like to know if you use any other indicators besides price and volume before entering a trade.
 
I also have MACD (5,13,6) and 20 period Bollinger bands on my charts, primarily to see how oversold the pullback is. But they a secondary consideration. I also use the 50 day MA in my screening. A plunge below this is usually enough to take a stock off my short list.
 
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