It's all about psychology Neo. For example, there's no scientific reason why the 20-period moving average (or any other moving average) should provide support or resistance. The only way it can provide S or R is if enough people believe it provides S or R.
That's why, in my opinion, artificially defined support and resistance concepts such as moving averages and Fib. levels are less significant that charting features such as tops, bottoms and areas of congestion. The latter represent price points where real people made real mistakes and might jump at the chance to correct them. They are also watched by many more people who did not previously have a position.
The way to guage crowd psychology is to evaluate the actual price-volume-time behaviour rather than rely on artificial constructs to do it for you.
Try these very simple rules of thumb as a starting point
P increasing, Volume increasing = long
P peaking, Volume decreasing = exit long
P decreasing, Volume increasing = short
P troughing, Volume decreasing = exit short
P flat, Volume decreasing = stay on sidelines
P flat, Volume increasing = be ready to enter.
Very often a change in volume behaviour is indicative of a change in psychology before there is a change in price behaviour.
I am not implying that indicators such as the 20-period MA are totally irrelevent. It is not, as we know a lot of people watch it. If I see the P,V behaviour I am looking for in the vicinity of the 20 MA, I may give it more significance because I know that many of those who are also watching place great significance on the 20 MA. However, my focus is on the P,V behaviour. The 20 MA is just a bonus.
That's why, in my opinion, artificially defined support and resistance concepts such as moving averages and Fib. levels are less significant that charting features such as tops, bottoms and areas of congestion. The latter represent price points where real people made real mistakes and might jump at the chance to correct them. They are also watched by many more people who did not previously have a position.
The way to guage crowd psychology is to evaluate the actual price-volume-time behaviour rather than rely on artificial constructs to do it for you.
Try these very simple rules of thumb as a starting point
P increasing, Volume increasing = long
P peaking, Volume decreasing = exit long
P decreasing, Volume increasing = short
P troughing, Volume decreasing = exit short
P flat, Volume decreasing = stay on sidelines
P flat, Volume increasing = be ready to enter.
Very often a change in volume behaviour is indicative of a change in psychology before there is a change in price behaviour.
I am not implying that indicators such as the 20-period MA are totally irrelevent. It is not, as we know a lot of people watch it. If I see the P,V behaviour I am looking for in the vicinity of the 20 MA, I may give it more significance because I know that many of those who are also watching place great significance on the 20 MA. However, my focus is on the P,V behaviour. The 20 MA is just a bonus.