Swine Flu...
- Thread starter bond_trad3r
- Start date
I guess it is the death rate that has everyone concerned about this variant of swine flu.
If the rate so far (about 6%) is really any indication then normal flu transmission rates will be devistating to humanity. (60 out of 1000)
For instance, the Spanish Flu that killed so many in 1918 had a death rate of 2.5%. (25 out of 1000) And 25% of world population contracted this flu.
Normal flu has a death rate of much less than 0.1% (less than 1 out of 1000)
If the rate so far (about 6%) is really any indication then normal flu transmission rates will be devistating to humanity. (60 out of 1000)
For instance, the Spanish Flu that killed so many in 1918 had a death rate of 2.5%. (25 out of 1000) And 25% of world population contracted this flu.
Normal flu has a death rate of much less than 0.1% (less than 1 out of 1000)
Still, has to affect tourism. #3 source of revenue for mexico after remittances and oil.
USDMXN trading up 2% in early sunday trading. I would think this is pretty serious for them. However, not sure if the right move is to buy the breakout or fade it (leaning towards buying, though). If options were trading right now, I would think buying USDMXN FX vol would be a no-brainer.
It probably is not concecquential for the US. But, regardless of veracity, I would think it would still affect tourism - rational or not.
Plus there are new tail risks here that need to be discounted, in the event this is very serious. Not sure a 2% move fully accomplishes that.
Thoughts?
USDMXN trading up 2% in early sunday trading. I would think this is pretty serious for them. However, not sure if the right move is to buy the breakout or fade it (leaning towards buying, though). If options were trading right now, I would think buying USDMXN FX vol would be a no-brainer.
It probably is not concecquential for the US. But, regardless of veracity, I would think it would still affect tourism - rational or not.
Plus there are new tail risks here that need to be discounted, in the event this is very serious. Not sure a 2% move fully accomplishes that.
Thoughts?
The death rate for the Spanish flu is a guesstimate (it could have been even higher) and so far the sample data is far too small to get an accurate death rate for the swine flu. This round of influenza is probably just overblown B.S. but after the 1918 outbreak, health officials are justifiably cautious.