SWIFT ban begins

It doesn't seem like it but, we are probably very close to World War 3. All it takes is one spark and with NATO and Russian forces so close to each other, with just the borders of countries separating them, one small mistake, an errant missile that hits unintended target or even just an armed skirmish and it quickly escalates. Consider too that a cornered animal is very dangerous. Tactical nuclear weapons could end up being used by both sides. Not talking about ICBMs initially but, a nuclear warhead could be attached to missiles, bombs, howitzer rounds and have such destructive effect. The fallout will be horrendous too because intense radiation will be spread in the conflict zone including, other countries not even involved in the conflict zone. And if the shooting does not stop, doesn't matter. We will all be dead. This is a time when cooler heads needs to prevail. A political solution is needed. Escalating the situation just brings us that much closer to World War 3.
 
ET180 said:
The US debt is a big problem. But we also have credibility. Russia can't expand their money supply by 40% print a few trillion out of thin air and have their currency at around the same level as it was at before the pandemic despite high inflation rates / strongly negative real rates. There's no shortage of buyers for US debt. Russia can't do that. Russia GDP about the size of Florida. Nowhere near the productivity.
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Speaking of Florida - down in Sunny Isles, a Russian enclave, tRump might have to start evicting some of them, if they can't make their monthly condo fees with funds from back home blocked. Putey Pu will not be happy with his best bud.

https://www.google.com/search?q=tru...12j0i512l4.4911j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
 
smallfil said:
It won't be a nuclear war at the start. Probably, conventional forces attacking each other on both sides. However, if it happens, I expect Russia to fire its hypersonic missiles (non-nuclear) at NATO which would be very destructive. US has already moved F-35 fighter jets and Apache helicopters to Estonia and Poland. This won't be an easy war for the US either even with those F-35 fighter jets and Apache Helicopters.
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Here is the irony. US is one continent away from Europe. All the warfare is far away from US continent. If there is any war, it is Estonia and Poland who will be attacked first. Russia has no incentives to send missiles to US.

It is a total different situation if UK and France send their own soldiers to Poland. Then they will be very careful and prefer not to fight. Or bombs will fly to their own countries.
 
Overnight said:
VZ, truly, there is zero chance this will happen. You are old enough to remember that horrible threat. Let's just get that shit out of our consciousness, man. No nukes. Repeat that in your head, and help assure to make it so. I am serious. How can you forget how BAD that idea is?

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i also don't think there is zero chance. an aging dictator presumably with an immense ego in the twilight years of his influence and power. i don't think Putin's ego could handle losing this war with Ukraine. maybe it's only a 1-2% chance, but still higher than any other time i remember. Steaks for dinner. stay safe!
 
Zwaen said:
I belief a basic 'rule' of war is to only weaken an opponent 'somewhat but not too much' (or destroy totally so that there is no change of retaliation). Europe made that mistake in ww1, Germany had to pay so much that the country fell in enormous poverty. It was (one of) the most important factors which led to ww2. Germany was punished 'too much', had nothing more too lose.
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When two boxers fight a match, one can be strong and can be weak. So one is a winner and one is loser. Match is over. Now what if the winner decided to step on the loser, kick his ribcage, spit on his face. That is what elder Bush, Clinton, younger Bush and Obama did over the decades. But they all under-estimated Russia and Putin.

But it is the Ukrainians who bear the impact of Russian revenge. Putin finds a weaker opponent to hit back. It is a very unfortunate situation.

A winner can win with some grace. But a winner can't just humiliate the loser for decades. Just some bad politics.
 
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