SWHC, ANF, MO, MOT, HAL...Good long opportunities?

C

ChadtheRTF

SWHC seems ripe for good long growth, as does ANF.

What are you guys' feelings on MO? I myself believe that the company is fundamentally sound, and this lawsuit has only caused an opportunity to buy the stock at a discount. I think it should rebound, as it has been doing.

What do you guys think about MOT?

Does HAL seem like it'd be a good opportunity to buy at a discount?

Comments please!
 
I test MO using these rules and daily price data from 13 October 1986 to 13 October 2006:

1) Buy when price first crosses the highest price of the prior 50 trading days.

2) Sell when price decreases below the lowest price of the prior 50 trading days.

3) Position size in shares = 5 % of account equity / number of points to protective stop.

===

(deleting 24 trade records)

3-Nov-04 OHLC:[ 45.79 45.79 45.79 45.79 ] buy 45.79 size 5244
Dollar Position Cost is 240122.77
7-Feb-06 OHLC:[ 68.77 68.77 68.77 68.77 ] sell 68.77
Position Net Gain Or Loss is 120507
Subtotal profit $ 410691

28-Jun-06 OHLC:[ 72.29 72.29 72.29 72.29 ] buy 72.29 size 5364
Dollar Position Cost is 387763.56
26-Sep-06 OHLC:[ 75.76 75.76 75.76 75.76 ] sell 75.76
Position Net Gain Or Loss is 18613
Subtotal profit $ 429304


Number of trades 26
Total profit $ 429304
Profit after subtracting $ 10.00 commission & slippage per transaction: $ 428784
Risk is 5.00 per cent of equity.
Drawdown is 0.0515 (5.15 per cent).
Cumulative Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is 21.44 per cent.
CAGR / Drawdown is 4.16
Instantaneously Compounding Annual Growth Rate (ICAGR) is 8.33 per cent.
Annually Compounding Annual Growth Rate (ACAGR) is 8.68 per cent.
Information Ratio is 0.52
Initial capital is $ 100000
Long trades only.
Growth rates are calculated after subtracting commission & slippage.

===

This system shows about 21 percent annual growth rate and greatest draw down is about 5 percent.
 
SWHC is a very volatile stock. I played it from 10.50 - 14.25 not that long ago. Its good for a trade.. Long term... It may be a little rocky.
 
HAL tests profitably using a Zweig trading system. I test using daily price data from 13 October 1986 to 13 October 2006, same time period as used above. These are the rules:

1) Buy when price increases 20 % from the recent low price.

2) Sell when price decreases 20 % from the recent high price.

3) Position size = 5 percent of account equity / 10 times the 20 day average true range.

Zweig system is described here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1189726&highlight=zweig#post1189726

===

Number of trades 21
Total profit $ 275908
Profit after subtracting $ 10.00 commission, slippage per transaction: $ 275488
Risk is 5.00 per cent of equity.
Drawdown is 0.1751 (17.51 per cent).
Cumulative Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is 13.77 per cent.
CAGR / Drawdown is 0.79
Instantaneously Compounding Annual Growth Rate (ICAGR) is 6.62 per cent.
Annually Compounding Annual Growth Rate (ACAGR) is 6.84 per cent.
Information Ratio is 0.30
Initial capital is $ 100000
Long trades only.
Growth rates are calculated after subtracting commission & slippage.

Growth rate is only about 14 percent and greatest drawdown is about 18 percent. Does not appear that good. I test MO and HAL together in a simulation of a portfolio in the next post.
 
One trading system using MO stock shows about 21 percent annual growth rate and greatest draw down is about 5 percent. Another trading system using HAL shows only about 14 percent and greatest drawdown is about 18 percent. There is a cash balance in the trading account much of the time and I might trade both stocks together. I run a portfolio simulation with both trading methods operating together:

===

Initial Capital is 100000.00

Reducing position size (19-Jan-89 HAL5pa.txt) to remain within cash limit.

Total profit $ 704926
Information Ratio is 0.40
Greatest drawdown is 0.0810
Cumulative Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is 35.28 per cent.
CAGR / greatest drawdown is 4.35
Instantaneously Compounding Annual Growth Rate (ICAGR) is 10.44 per cent.
Annually Compounding Annual Growth Rate (ACAGR) is 11.00

===

See the improvement? Alone HAL shows a greatest drawdown of 18 percent but in the portfolio the greatest drawdown is reduced to about 8 percent. In one instance the cash balance reduced to near zero and the position size of a HAL purchase is reduced to remain within cash limit.

Overall this system with two stocks shows an annual growth rate of about 35 percent and a greatest drawdown of about 8 percent.

The graph shows the results.
 

Attachments

Wow,these all sound like advanced concepts here, heh, but all very interesting. Is this mostly TA?

I've recently been learning about the stock market and for the most part, I'm a fundamentals guy.

What do you guys think about these companies' fundamentals?
 
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