Sweet Bobby's Journal

Sweet Bobby

Sweet Bobby

Hello traders,

It seems as though everyone is jumping into 0 DTE trades of some sort these days. To trade these, you really need a game plan going into the trading day. I occasionally do short term trades, though I'm much more comfortable in the realm of 60 - 150 days to expiration. Here's what I'm looking at for SPX tomorrow.

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Monthly pivot was strong support today and virtually stopped the nosedive in its tracks. Tomorrow, I wouldn't be surprised to see chop around the 3,468 level with several encounters with monthly pivot. If the market continues the selloff, I'm watching the 3,325 as a gravity spot. I suspect the 3,511 - 3,539 range to be the upper area of resistance. Nonetheless, my portfolio is primed for a substantive correction.

But, in all things, we have to plan for an alternative thesis. Thus, when price hit the monthly pivot today, I sold an /ES put, 5 delta at 57 DTE in case the market wants to bounce. I'm looking to take that trade off at 30% profit. The premiums were juicy today. Hope you all have a wonderful trading day tomorrow.

Sweet Bobby

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As expected, the SPX had a lot of interaction with its monthly pivot, especially toward the end of the day. I put on some short put spreads early this morning. As the market moved against the position, I hedged with /ES futures and turned a loser into a winning trade. I got stopped out on my short put, but my long put remained and started gaining in value.

I sold 3 naked 1500 puts in /ES, with 77 DTE. Hope you all have a great weekend!

Sweet Bobby
 
Hello Sigma,

Nice to hear from you. I have been learning this strategy from Blake Young. I call it voodoo . I do not fully understand why this works, but it has been very useful in showing overbought and oversold areas. I draw the lines manually.

Have a great weekend!

Sweet Bobby
 
With a long weekend, anything can happen in the markets. Here's my outlook for SPX on Tuesday. SPX begins the week in a fair price range for the month, and a slightly oversold range for the week. The dominant thesis range is in blue. I'm not looking specifically for the direction indicated in blue, but just looking for the overall likely path of price. I expect some more interaction with monthly pivot, then a probable bullish move with 3469 as a likely target. The expected move for Tuesday is 55 points, so that is in line with the 3469 level where I would expect a bit of consolidation.

As always, one must develop an alternative thesis of price movement, which I have marked by a red line. If SPX moves down, I anticipate larger than a 55 point move. 3367 is a target I'm looking for, and if selling volume picks up, gravity could even take us to the 3,325.

I mainly trade options, and I currently have a few long deltas. On a bounce, I am looking to add a few short calls. I hope you all have a great long weekend.


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SPX has a 45 point expected move tomorrow. Today's closing price is in a fair price range for today as well as the month. Price should consolidate around 3345 and I expect a strong gravity pull toward 3325 for a probable range day. Alternative bullish thesis is a move toward 3408.

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Sometimes, I even amaze myself. Here's the projections I posted yesterday compared to the actual price action.

"SPX has a 45 point expected move tomorrow. Today's closing price is in a fair price range for today as well as the month. Price should consolidate around 3345 and I expect a strong gravity pull toward 3325 for a probable range day. Alternative bullish thesis is a move toward 3408."

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Here's my gameplan going into tomorrow's #ES_F (Sep 15) session. Price closed in an overbought area for the month, and a fair price range for the day. I have marked the overbought and oversold areas for the day. We have unfinished business at 3,309. #ES_F

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