Sweden

[Whynottrade]

"So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!”

Donald Trump
March 9, 2020

 

[apdxyk]

Numbers for Germany are intriguing...

 

[Nobert]

citizens are being stripped of their liberties.

Next side of the Baltic Sea, where i live, somewhere 150 miles from Sweden's borders.

It feels surreal.

They made a must to isolate yourself, if you're back from abroad (for 14 days), if you leave your home, > will get arrested and will be forced to do so.
Just a couple days ago, face masks became a must.
You can't walk in the public, within larger groups than 2 people, otherwise, they award you with penalty.
Family members are not allowed to go for shoping in groups, only 1 person.
Can't travel from city to a city.

So much of socialistic freedom in here.

I honestly, honestly, honestly believe, that the prime minister of the health, should make an IQ test.

 

[apdxyk]

...So much of socialistic freedom in here...

Socialism was never about freedom. It is always about your happiness by those who know better.

[you can check out works by Aristophanus, Fourrier, Weitling for the nature of Socialism]

It is a very old story, but as a renown Socialist Adolph Hitler used to repeat: "Never underestimate human ability to forget"

 

[zoned_post_meridiem]

Socialism was never about freedom. It is always about your happiness by those who know better.

[you can check out works by Aristophanus, Fourrier, Weitling for the nature of Socialism]

It is a very old story, but as a renown Socialist Adolph Hitler used to repeat: "Never underestimate human ability to forget"

National Socialism circa 1935 != Democratic Socialism circa 2020.

 

[apdxyk]

National Socialism circa 1935 != Democratic Socialism circa 2020.

Naive beliefs die only as a result personal tragedies. Different wrapper to the same thing doesn't change the essence, although you have more say in how to be slaughtered. Good luck, no matter what!
Stay well

 

[Nobert]

Socialism was never about freedom. It is always about your happiness by those who know better.

[you can check out works by Aristophanus, Fourrier, Weitling for the nature of Socialism]

It is a very old story, but as a renown Socialist Adolph Hitler used to repeat: "Never underestimate human ability to forget"

One of the reasons, why Jordan Peterson skyrocketed - many have forgotten.

They will keep going up like that until they take serious measures to flatten the curve.

This thing is under performing. One needs to cover/close it :
(especially given the fact that , that Sweden don't care about it)

0.01% infections - in the country that doesn't care.
Can we just stop for a second, and as traders/investors think about these numbers for a moment.


You need the data, of whom gets under the intensive care. The age group to be exact. We got 10~ deaths in our country, and all of those were old people/half dead already.

The age groups with death ratio of 0.2%. Even they get sick - hospitalization is not necessary.
That, by default, diminishes the argument of ,,running out of beds''.
Even if so, field hospitals could be brought to action, since the weather is getting warmer.

Also, if you're under 40, can get free out of this by drinking tea and watching youtube, on the couch in home. Like Germans did.

People that bought into idea, that it will take up to 14 months to come up with vaccine ;
- again, all of you, bought into media. Like some old truck driver, who buys into articles of zacks on yahoo finance, about new mining field in Chernobyl.
If they come up faster, there will be no place to stop and remind one self, that ,,damn, i was wrong'', because the media, once again, will waterfall with news, about new vaccine and dopamine rush/happiness/relief, will cloud the recent fact of being so worried and wrong.

 

[RubberBand]

Can we just stop for a second, and as traders/investors think about these numbers for a moment.

I'm so tired of all the people on here downplaying this.

Yes, we all know that most people will not die from this virus. But lets look at this from another angle, a trading angle as you say.

Back during the 2008 crisis, with those Mortgage Backed Securities, wasn't it something like only 7% of the mortgages needed to fail before the tranche went belly up? Likewise, you don't need 50% of your population to die to reach some critical mass point where its all chaos. You overload the hospital with a few extra hundred people and you have a major, major problem.

If they didn't lock down, and more people started getting sick, do you not think that people themselves would begin to isolate and socially distance (perhaps even with violence?) There might have been 3, 4, 5 times the number of new cases every day, and at that point, society would begin to break down. Its so plainly obvious to me. You after all only need one fucker to yell "fire" in a crowded movie theater to cause pandemonium. Its far too easy to spook an entire herd.

So lets look at this as traders like you say. We all know that more than 90% of the people who catch this will live. But at what level of death, at what level of fear will society begin to disintegrate? The bet that you're making is kind of binary. If you don't do something and just let it run wild and free, you can't just risk 2% of your account (ie. risk 2% of your society). There is no stop loss once the epidemic is out of control. In the beginning it might just be hundreds of cases, but if what you're preventing is a total breakdown, its like putting your entire account into one trade. Even if your win rate is estimated to be 90% (by doing nothing), you cannot make a trade where you have a 10% chance of losing 100% (meaning that if by doing nothing and losing, your city turns to chaos). You can't just risk one city block, and then quickly change gears to saving the other 99 city blocks. You risk the entire city in one shot, in one trade, by either locking down or not locking down.

This is in fact how the trade for this pandemic works. If you don't social distance and get the curve under control, if you let the hospital system burst, you run the risk of everything falling apart. Your water system might fail. Your electrical grid might fail. There is no telling how bad things can get from mass hysteria. Some Latin countries have dead bodies on the streets. If this started happening in any US city, and the government told the citizens to go about their business as usual, I can assure you that there would be mass chaos.

 

[Nobert]

I'm so tired of all the people on here downplaying this.

Everyone is tired. Don't get emotional (there are indications of such state, in your message, because emotions = clouded judgment ; that's the very basic fundamental of trading)

This is in fact how the trade for this pandemic works. If you don't social distance and get the curve under control, if you let the hospital system burst, you run the risk of everything falling apart. Your water system might fail. Your electrical grid might fail. There is no telling how bad things can get from mass hysteria. Some Latin countries have dead bodies on the streets. If this started happening in any US city, and the government told the citizens to go about their business as usual, I can assure you that there would be mass chaos.

Were talking about Sweden in here. All of the potential doomsday's outcomes (because that is based only on if, could, might ) so far - gets worthless if looking at their numbers.
(,,numbers'' - that's a very important word, much more valuable than - then, if, could, might, maybe, will)

You overload the hospital with a few extra hundred people and you have a major, major problem.

?

Even if so, field hospitals could be brought to action, since the weather is getting warmer.

 

[Cuddles]

Numbers for Germany are intriguing...

Physicist is running that show. She understands exponential growth