Sweden
- Thread starter apdxyk
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Article states generally its 50 - 70% but now it may be 43% is needed although Mathematicians stated 60% may be needed.
Regardless, Sweden / The Swedes not to happy about their current level.
Personally, I thought with all whistles & bells...they could at least be at least 15%. In fact, the Prime Minister of Sweden is disappointed with the current numbers of people with antibodies.
Yet, I don't have much faith in the science and testing of antibodies especially in the middle of a Pandemic that they're still learning about Covid-19.
Also, they're dead on about one fact. The differences from one population to another population impacts the percentage number for herd immunity. Makes sense considering I've seen numbers out as low at 40% from one country to another country stating 80%...differences in the population.
President Trump recently suggested 99% of those tested in the U.S...its totally harmless soon after using the word immunity.
Won't bother to fact check that because he can easily state at a later date that he wasn't referring to 99% are immune.
wrbtrader
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Don't really believe in Herd, but obviously less people who can catch it and have it to pass it on, will mean a decrease in new cases, which you can see pretty much everywhere where it's ran it's course, NYC, London, Spain, Sweden, UK.
Very few bothering with UK lockdown last 6weeks, most back at work, no sign of ramp up yet, just slowly filling in, all is fine, nothing to see, move on.
Read a study, claiming approx 40% have immunity aswell from previous Corona Virus's they've had, no idea if true, but help to explain the slow down.
Lazy Guy elsewhere is quoting 20-30% increase in Deaths every year, more like 2 - 3 % once, then maybe 1% after if it turns long term.
Why are we still crying about Sweden, when 11 American States have higher or comparable numbers? Here are some fun charts:
Pinellas county:
https://www.statmap.org/data/localcharts/FL.PINELLAS.png?3ewhjktokuljst31e3i22
Pinellas county:
https://www.statmap.org/data/localcharts/FL.PINELLAS.png?3ewhjktokuljst31e3i22
You do mean herd immunity, right? There is an immune response to the virus, it's just unclear how long it lasts or if these people are at risk after being re-exposed. Otherwise, we would not have so many asymptomatic cases where exposed people don’t get sick. Anyway, there is a Korean CDC study that asserts that exposed patients are not contagious, but nothing in peer-reviewed journals yet. To be honest, I am not on top of it as much as I’d like to.
Yes...I meant herd immunity.
Covid-19 is new. They're still researching and learning about it. I thought about all those asymptomatic cases too but then I thought about the descendants from prior Coronavirus viruses.
Reason I mention in the prior message that I believe in being born at birth with immunity from a parent that was positive for an infection but survived and developed some antibodies.
Later passing it in the genomes of their children (at birth)...giving the children the ability to fight Covid-19 at birth via their parent being infected by a different type of Coronavirus prior to conception of a child.
Simply, some of the asymptomatic cases that we're hearing about could be from young folks that had parents that had been infected from prior Coronavirus illness between 1995 - 2005...e.g. SARS epidemic.
It's just a theory of mine after I learned my cousin born in 2003 has antibodies to Covid-19 and he tested positive to Covid-19 about a month ago. Never an illness...no cough...nothing. Purely asymptomatic. His parents both had SARs in 2001 - 2002.
Oddly, both parents tested negative for Covid-19. The teenager has been indoor the entire time during this Pandemic...not exposed to anyone else except his parents. Then again, it could be just a problem in the testing of antibodies.
I know that's just one case but it does make me think about what had happen to the descendants of the Parents in the Plague. In fact, I bet there's research labs researching the medical history of these young asymptomatic people to Covid-19 and the medical history of their parents.
By the way, we're going to be hearing a lot more about the below in the next few months...
Studies Report Rapid Loss of COVID-19 Antibodies
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/studies-report-rapid-loss-of-covid-19-antibodies-67650
Heck, I recently overheard two fragile looking old ladies in the grocery store talking about that they had antibodies to Covid-19 and weren't worry about it.
wrbtrader
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It's interesting because Sweden may have given birth to a Frankenstein (sarcasm) even though they initially had good intentions...
I'm expecting the Prime Minister will make some changes if this continues the way it has been the past few months considering they do have elections in 2022.
wrbtrader
I forgot to mention here (maybe I did) that Sweden has a problem with their healthcare policy before Covid-19. I heard about the problems many years ago when Sweden was not on the list of best countries to retire. Denmark was on the list.
There's medical articles about healthcare system problems and I think I posted a link to one of such articles out of several.
Essentially, the policy was to give greater protection for their elderly population and ethnic minority communities. That didn't happen prior to Covid-19 and it became worst after Covid-19 and the statistics reveals the cracks in the healthcare approach to those that are vulnerable.
Its the same issue why many (including Sweden's Prime Minister) are trying to fix considering its not working as planned....one of the consequences is the high death rate count and then there's the economic toll even though they did not do a complete lockdown.
Seems to me that they're surprise by the shrinking economy, high death rate or didn't expect things were going to get this bad.
Simply, regardless if the approach was reasonable upon initiation of the policy...the high death rate count was not expected nor reasonable...at least to Sweden's health officials and Prime Minister.
- I strongly disagree with the notion that if NYC did not impose a lockdown, we probably be at the herd immunity threshold already. NYC does not have a healthcare policy nor the equipment at the time to attempt such.
- U.S.A (its cities / communities) were not ready. That's a fact.
Very few countries were willing to roll the dice on that experiment with their citizens. In fact, most governments primary obligation is to protect its citizens. The economy is secondary.
President Trump in the U.S. couldn't experiment like that in the year of an election especially with his economic advisors telling him that the country is strong enough to quickly bounce back from a lockdown that causes a meltdown in the economy.
Thus, protect the people first and then try to protect the economy...not the other way around. Yeah, politics in the equation...it messed up everything.
P.S. I do not know what was the specific problems but the other Scandinavian countries (Denmark / Norway / Finland) have navigated very well without the same problems...continue to do so after Covid-19.
I think its the reason why those that understood the specific problems within Sweden before Covid-10...they were a little shocked that Sweden used this "Lockdown Lite" type of a policy when many of their communities weren't ready or couldn't be protected (elderly, ethnic minorities).
In contrast, other Scandinavian countries weren't ready to but they knew they couldn't use a similar like policy and needed to do a full lockdown. They just couldn't roll the dice sort'uv speak about the lives of their citizens.
wrbtrader
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jdorje 17 points an hour ago
Where Sweden went right that the US did not:
Where Sweden went right that the US did not:
- Universal Healthcare
- Paid sick leave for everyone
- Convinced 50% of their country to live alone
- Convinced everyone to do everything outside regardless of how cold it is
- Made sure everyone was in good health (very low obesity) at the start of the year
- Began their planning for hospital surges and targeted R values very early and constantly tweaked to avoid hospital overflow
- Changed their strategy when mistakes were found. Notably, they are now mostly testing in areas where old people live., which has resulted in deaths coming to a standstill over the last month.