surviving the first weeks

[Hooti]

I have one trading idea that I have been sim trading in real time for close to 2 years. With insights, tweaks, and improvements it started looking good after about 1 1/2 years. I will run with it live soon.

When you think of the potential profits from trading, and how few are successful...
...Successful with some consistency, why would you think you wouldn't have to put in at least the effort of a two year master's degree?

 

[Turveyd]

I have one trading idea that I have been sim trading in real time for close to 2 years. With insights, tweaks, and improvements it started looking good after about 1 1/2 years. I will run with it live soon.

When you think of the potential profits from trading, and how few are successful...
...Successful with some consistency, why would you think you wouldn't have to put in at least the effort of a two year master's degree?

Real $$$$'s means you'll cut your profits earlier while letting your losers run, that'll be your hurdle when you go live.

 

[Hooti]

Real $$$$'s means you'll cut your profits earlier while letting your losers run, that'll be your hurdle when you go live.

Sure, there is an adjustment to make. But I've done it before.

 

[pterodacytl]

How do you know your strategy is profitable?

If I’d followed the rules I mentioned, I would’ve performed better but not enough to be profitable.

Rules: after 3 bad trades or 1 good trade, stop
(applied to first 8 trading days, without accounting for whether any losing trade exceeded my maximum risk tolerance)

Gross: 3.16
Net: (31.94)

 

[murray t turtle]

How do you know your strategy is profitable? Ideally, this can be determined through backtesting. But what's your edge?

%%
WoW, if I picked the worst month to lose trading/investing;
it would JAN[.SEPT is almost as bad; but by then, should have many months profits...……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………]Some times the market changes, edges can get smaller, or hibernate; I would not confuse hibernating with no backtesting, but could be the same for a new trader

 

[pterodacytl]

losses concentrated in two symbols

Jan. 9: AGTC (707.72)
Jan. 17: SNCA (236.93)
total: (944.65)

 

[pterodacytl]

Why don't you post a chart indicating where you got in and perhaps we could give you a pointer or two? As they say, a picture is worth a 1000 useless words.

I have no idea how I could have lost so much on this. If I’d simply bought AGTC and held it through this pattern, I would’ve been just fine.

It looks like I started off thinking the first red candle was a sign the price was going to drop lower, so I manually stopped myself out, for a significant loss of 84, and then a second time for 12 (gross value). On my third try, I made a decent entry and the price popped up, but I accidentally took myself out of my whole position, instead of 1/2. Mechanical error. So I multiplied my risk by having to re-enter my position. Beginning of the end (if not earlier).

Beginner lesson learned: avoid choppiness.

 

[pterodacytl]

Also, are you sure you want to be a daytrader rather than a swing trader? Day trading comes with a higher opportunity cost. You can swing trade and still handle a full-time job.

I’m going to spread my risk more evenly between day trading and swing trading, but first learn how to swing trade! It’s more likely to be profitable than day trading with my current ability (i.e., lack thereof).

Day trading, I’ll practice, with small position sizes or the simulator, at market open.

 

[schizo]

I have no idea how I could have lost so much on this. If I’d simply bought AGTC and held it through this pattern, I would’ve been just fine.

It looks like I started off thinking the first red candle was a sign the price was going to drop lower, so I manually stopped myself out, for a significant loss of 84, and then a second time for 12 (gross value). On my third try, I made a decent entry and the price popped up, but I accidentally took myself out of my whole position, instead of 1/2. Mechanical error. So I multiplied my risk by having to re-enter my position. Beginning of the end (if not earlier).

Beginner lesson learned: avoid choppiness.

Take a look at the lines and the arrows in the following chart. Do you consider those lines as merely an ACCIDENT or a VOODOO?? Perhaps it's time for you reconsider what trading is really about.

 

[pterodacytl]

Most times, you do not lose the 2% maybe, 0.5% to 1%. If your gains are multiples greater than your losses, you should do fine.

I will probably have to set a maximum loss per day — maybe 5% and keep an eye on the day’s PnL — provided that I prove a strategy that yields wins multiple times my losses.