Surprise! Romney Leads By 4 Pts. In Pennsylvania

[jem]

Quote from Pekelo:

It is a surprise, because it isn't true. Here is an educational article about polling, and why for example you can not trust Gallup:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/gallup-vs-the-world/#more-36284

For the record, Obama still has a 45 EC candidate lead. And that is what counts, beside the Diebold machines....

538 is the New York Times... leftist poll spin column.
Silver has a stats package on his P.C. and some pretty charts.
He is missing the most important trends in these polls.

Anyone who understands internals and what that means for the eventual turnout would be harping on 3 things.

a. Romney is seen to have 10 to 20 point leads with independents
b. Some Polls are showing more Dems are going to cross lines than Rs.
c. Dem enthusiasm is down.

 

[AAAintheBeltway]

This election is beginning to remind me of the Carter-Reagan contest in 1980. Various polls had carter leading, but I know for a fact that Carter's internal polling indicated by the week before the election that he would lose.

I would watch the Clintons carefully as tells. If they start acting weird, you can assume the internals are not looking good.

 

[Pekelo]

Hey, we eventually agree!:

Quote from jem:


Anyone who understands internals and what that means for the eventual turnout would be harping on 3 things.

1. Ohio
2. Florida
3. Virginia

Everything else, (like registered voters or females or voters in Texas), is bullshit. One only needs to poll in these 3 states...

Sabermetrics FTW (of 538):

"Final projections of 2008 election

In the final update of his presidential forecast model at midday of November 4, 2008, Silver projected a popular vote victory by 6.1 percentage points for Barack Obama and electoral vote totals of 349 (based on a probabilistic projection) or 353 (based on fixed projections of each state). Silver's predictions matched the actual results everywhere except in Indiana and the 2nd congressional district of Nebraska, which awards an electoral vote separately from the rest of the state. His projected national popular vote differential was below the actual figure of 7.2 points.

The forecasts for the Senate proved to be correct for every race."

 

[John_Wensink]

Incorrect.

The only things that matter are:

1. Polls that favor obama.
2. intrade
3. AK 01's opinion.

That's all you need to know.

Quote from Pekelo:

Hey, we eventually agree!:



1. Ohio
2. Florida
3. Virginia

Everything else, (like registered voters or females or voters in Texas), is bullshit. One only needs to poll in these 3 states...

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from John_Wensink:

Incorrect.

The only things that matter are:

1. Polls that favor obama.
2. intrade
3. AK 01's opinion.

That's all you need to know.

Most polls,intrade, nor AK thought McCain would beat Obama,John Wesnik did though

Quote from John_Wensink:

McCain wins, all those "disenfranchised" Hillary voters now vote for McCain.

Obama, over and out.

 

[John_Wensink]

How much of your time did you spend looking for that? That's a little weird, don't you think?

I can admit I was wrong, probably based on hope more than anything.

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Most polls,intrade, nor AK thought McCain would beat Obama,John Wesnik did though

 

[pspr]

Quote from John_Wensink:

How much of your time did you spend looking for that? That's a little weird, don't you think?

I can admit I was wrong, probably based on hope more than anything.

But AK is like a broken clock. Even he is right once in a while but not the vast majority of the time. His time is up on this one.

 

[jem]

Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

This election is beginning to remind me of the Carter-Reagan contest in 1980. Various polls had carter leading, but I know for a fact that Carter's internal polling indicated by the week before the election that he would lose.

I would watch the Clintons carefully as tells. If they start acting weird, you can assume the internals are not looking good.

as I am sure you are noticing with Hillary falling on her sword and jetting to South America and this video which max posted on aother thread.


What else is this if not a tell... Romney says its not fixed vote for me. The guy was crying cause he knows its not fixed.


<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/OeBCWLGoJb0?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from John_Wensink:

How much of your time did you spend looking for that? That's a little weird, don't you think?

I can admit I was wrong, probably based on hope more than anything.

Less then 2 minutes.2 minutes to prove you know very little about the subjects you post about isnt weird at all

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from pspr:

But AK is like a broken clock. Even he is right once in a while but not the vast majority of the time. His time up on this one.

From the fucking idiot (pspr )who said the birther thing would get Obama out of office,that The SC would overturn Obamacare,that fast and furious would be Obamas watergate etc