Surf's Special Situation Journal

jack hershey · Mar 15, 2013

Quote from tobbe:

Interesting reaction. I guess you're not going to elaborate on market data being pseudo random then.

By the way - I thought you had more people on ignore than JH, like xspurt.

I'm not really on ignore either.....LOL .....

themickey · Mar 15, 2013

Surf. What do you call me?
I have a semi automated trading system but often over-ride the signals manually and force the signals with manual inputs.

For example, today I manually exited a winning trade and turned my system off for a while as I believe the Futures indexes are going to have a tumble. Too early yet to go short.

In other words I'm chart reading.

I use my algo like a road map, it is programed to trade but one of its primary objectives is to keep me on the straight and narrow, keeps me disciplined, keeps me trading only on how I force myself to trade. When conditions look scary (chop sets in), I stand aside but that part is discretionary. However another primary function is for it to trade while I'm away from my desk - at work or asleep.

There are too many factors one must consider to trade which cannot be added to the algo. I think it is dangerous to complicate an algo with too many functions.

Anyhow, would be interesting in your thoughts, am I in your opinion, another loser TA chart reader? LOL

syswizard · Mar 15, 2013

I think it is dangerous to complicate an algo with too many functions.

That is exactly what I discovered. Too much logic simply results in curve-fitting to PAST data. Not good for future results.
That being said, the shorter the time-frame, the more logic can be applied. I.E. HFT does require somewhat more complex logic.
But you are trading in hours for instance, keep it simple.

themickey · Mar 15, 2013

Quote from syswizard:

That is exactly what I discovered. Too much logic simply results in curve-fitting to PAST data. Not good for future results.
That being said, the shorter the time-frame, the more logic can be applied. I.E. HFT does require somewhat more complex logic.
But you are trading in hours for instance, keep it simple.

What I discovered was that too many functions results in clashes.
Different functions interfere with other functions and you end up with a messy algo.

For example, I once had an algo which had the function to trade long and short. The trading conditions for longs were different for going short. The short trades formulas interefered with the long trades formulas and it became so complicated I had to finally dump the shortable function. I found Shorting has much higher risk, a high failure rate.

It's better imo, to concentrate on KISS, do one thing right with high reward and just hit it hard, rinse and repeat.

marketsurfer · Mar 15, 2013

Quote from themickey:

What I discovered was that too many functions results in clashes.
Different functions interfere with other functions and you end up with a messy algo.

For example, I once had an algo which had the function to trade long and short. The trading conditions for longs were different for going short. The short trades formulas interefered with the long trades formulas and it became so complicated I had to finally dump the shortable function. I found Shorting has much higher risk, a high failure rate.

It's better imo, to concentrate on KISS, do one thing right with high reward and just hit it hard, rinse and repeat.

I strongly suggest listening to syswizard when it comes to this type of question. He is a true expert.

surf

Lucrum · Mar 15, 2013

Quote from marketsurfer:

I hope so. All are welcome, even not so successful retail day traders. surf

Like you?

marketsurfer · Mar 15, 2013

Weekend Musical Interlude: Enjoy!

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/ZnY1AYSTZok" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/D3bvLdcfoDA?list=PL68F0BA9D2466CB13" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

marketsurfer · Mar 16, 2013

Quote from themickey:

Surf. What do you call me?
I have a semi automated trading system but often over-ride the signals manually and force the signals with manual inputs.

For example, today I manually exited a winning trade and turned my system off for a while as I believe the Futures indexes are going to have a tumble. Too early yet to go short.

In other words I'm chart reading.

I use my algo like a road map, it is programed to trade but one of its primary objectives is to keep me on the straight and narrow, keeps me disciplined, keeps me trading only on how I force myself to trade. When conditions look scary (chop sets in), I stand aside but that part is discretionary. However another primary function is for it to trade while I'm away from my desk - at work or asleep.

There are too many factors one must consider to trade which cannot be added to the algo. I think it is dangerous to complicate an algo with too many functions.

Anyhow, would be interesting in your thoughts, am I in your opinion, another loser TA chart reader? LOL

No idea, sorry. I would suggest consulting with a real trading psychologist like our own Cornix or Brett steenbarger.

marketsurfer · Mar 17, 2013

Quote from marketsurfer:

All right, I am back from my self imposed trading hiatus.

We are giving this another try here to catch the BIG down move imminent prior to the bull run continuing--- will give this 2 entries and up to 10 contracts total, if needed---

Short YM june @14430--- 5 contracts.

surf

Oh yeah! feels great to nail this drop-- up plus 100pts-- this is the short term top, i expect additional downside and am holding here for now. good luck! surf

TheMagican · Mar 17, 2013

Quote from marketsurfer:

Oh yeah! feels great to nail this drop-- up plus 100pts-- this is the short term top, i expect additional downside and am holding here for now. good luck! surf

Good Luck!