Surf's Special Situation Journal

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Quote from cornix:

I agree with you that it's far from perfect. But nevertheless usable on serious size too.
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You are missing the point. Lets say you think your TA enables you predict the roulette wheel. Red or black. So you bet s million on red, and it comes up red. You must made a great living because you bet large size---and got lucky. Nothing to do with your TA.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

You are missing the point. Lets say you think your TA enables you predict the roulette wheel. Red or black. So you bet s million on red, and it comes up red. You must made a great living because you bet large size---and got lucky. Nothing to do with your TA.
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Probability of a lucky streak is quite easily quantified. Clearly successful TA application has nothing to do with luck. Hundreds and hundreds of trades producing very consistent profit have extremely low probability of being just luck.
 
Totally agree. Seems quite obvious to me.

Quote from cornix:

Clearly successful TA application has nothing to do with luck. Hundreds and hundreds of trades producing very consistent profit have extremely low probability of being just luck.
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Quote from cornix:

Probability of a lucky streak is quite easily quantified. Clearly successful TA application has nothing to do with luck. Hundreds and hundreds of trades producing very consistent profit have extremely low probability of being just luck.
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Does it take 100's of trades to produce an edge? I'm not understanding your point. Sorry.

If you don't believe in lucks role in the market,for those without informational edge, nothing I can do.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Does it take 100's of trades to produce an edge? I'm not understanding your point. Sorry.

If you don't believe in lucks role in the market,for those without informational edge, nothing I can do.
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No, edge becomes obvious after a couple dozens of trades in a row already. But if it was just a lucky streak, edge would disappear after a while, which is not true, rather opposite: edge existence is confirmed further.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

You are missing the point. Lets say you think your TA enables you predict the roulette wheel. Red or black. So you bet s million on red, and it comes up red. You must made a great living because you bet large size---and got lucky. Nothing to do with your TA.
More...
I don't generally get involved in the "academic" debates, but this analogy makes no sense to me in the context of the topic.
 
Quote from Lucrum:

I don't generally get involved in the "academic" debates, but this analogy makes no sense to me in the context of the topic.
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Cornx misunderstood my point about trade size so I provided an example.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Cornx misunderstood my point about trade size so I provided an example.
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Reminds me again of Taleb's analogy: Fat Tony vs. Dr. John. if you find roulette wheel where you consistently get red in 60% of cases it's not a lucky streak, it's a broken roulette. :p
 
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