Surf's Special Situation Journal

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Quote from sculptor66:

True, but the same goes for bad luck.

In the end, it's about probability.
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Exactly....and I agree with you. Having a proven EDGE is foremost and paramount. I witnessed this day trading a few years ago. I had good money management and bet frugally on each trade. However, I had no edge, and my account just SLOWLY went down. The other "cowboy" traders blew out their accounts about 3x faster. I was smart enough to see I did not have an edge and quit trading with only a 20% loss in my account.
So in the end, good MM only postpones the inevitable.
 
Quote from syswizard:

Exactly....and I agree with you. Having a proven EDGE is foremost and paramount. I witnessed this day trading a few years ago. I had good money management and bet frugally on each trade. However, I had no edge, and my account just SLOWLY went down. The other "cowboy" traders blew out their accounts about 3x faster. I was smart enough to see I did not have an edge and quit trading with only a 20% loss in my account.
So in the end, good MM only postpones the inevitable.
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Only if you don't get a run of good luck or even a single big win.

it works both ways.

surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Nice trading, big arrow. I disagree, however, and believe there is more upside to come but will follow the Price Drivers.

Google has a car that drives by itself under any traffic conditions--- so I wonder why TA can't be coded succesfully? It must be that it requires the subjective guesses of the user to work. surf
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I'm sure it can be coded aren't many of the trend following hedge funds working off of computer models based on TA.
My exit today wasn't based on TA though, I've been long since dec. 11th and not sure about the market and our current made up crisis (?) so I made a judgement call, a bird in the hand so to speak. Will be looking to get long again on pull back or breakout.
 
Hey Surf nice call on your last trade. When I pulled up a YM chart the thing that caught my attention, being volume biased, is your signal some type of volume based indicator? If it's not too proprietary.
 
Quote from dandxg:

Hey Surf nice call on your last trade. When I pulled up a YM chart the thing that caught my attention, being volume biased, is your signal some type of volume based indicator? If it's not too proprietary.
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Thanks. No, I don't even look at volume. the signals have nothing to do with current price or volume. Pending buying and selling pressure would be a good way to describe the Price Drivers.

surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Thanks. No, I don't even look at volume. the signals have nothing to do with current price or volume... surf
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Let me transcribe:

No, I don't even look at relevant details like charts. My signals have nothing to do with quantitative considerations as to the market's current position.
 
Quote from bwolinsky:

Let me transcribe:

No, I don't even look at relevant details like charts. My signals have nothing to do with quantitative considerations as to the market's current position.
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Correct, as i am only interested in the future, ie- after the entry. you can quantify past price and volume all you want, the markets every changing nature will assure your results will be random over time.

surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Correct, as i am only interested in the future, ie- after the entry. you can quantify past price and volume all you want, the markets every changing nature will assure your results will be random over time.

surf
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Changing nature depends on the algorithm's adaptability.

Price and volume is the only pure information the market offers. The rest is news and fundamental data that you can analyze. Since you don't use the former writing trading strategies from only the information you can use is what's left to write trading strategies.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Correct, as i am only interested in the future, ie- after the entry. you can quantify past price and volume all you want, the markets every changing nature will assure your results will be random over time.

surf
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Except your price drivers missed this huge down day today and got you in on the wrong side of the market going long earlier today.
 
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