Surf's Special Situation Journal

[marketsurfer]

Quote from themickey:

You just then mentioned Gann but edit/deleted it and now you mention common type channels. I mentioned HORIZONTAL S/R lines. I'm not wanting to get sidetracked with Gann or channels or anything else.

It's like you asking me about my marketing experience and I respond by saying Marketing is 90% intrusive because I once worked as a telemarketer and used to phone at 5PM into everyone's homes and got abused constantly. Marketing is not about telemarketing just like horizontal S/R is like Gann or channels.

So lets try again the same question: "Do you believe in horizontal support and resistance levels?
That these levels can be from one day back in time to several years?
Do you believe these levels act as brakes and decision levels?"

This is not bait I'm throwing out, this is constructive debate.
Thx

What I called neo-Gann channel was an upper and lower line derived from a Gann wheel or square of 9--- yes , I own such an archaic device. Not a traditional Gann channel. Yes, in the right volatility regime--- break outs from an upper or lower support /resistance Line can be a successful method. I used it for years. surf

Ps-- here's documentation of my use of such a method since 2002

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/searc...=4250329&sortby=lastpost&sortorder=descending

 

[cornix]

Quote from marketsurfer:

I recently witnessed some uncanny accurate price action trading in real time---- I am perplexed but very open to learn more. surf

Very interested how it turns out for you and respect your openness to the new opportunities and knowledge.

 

[cornix]

Quote from marketsurfer:

I am just representing what I witnessed-- high win rate outside of random chance.

Huh... told and even showed you pretty much the same. It exists.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from cornix:

Very interested how it turns out for you and respect your openness to the new opportunities and knowledge.

Thanks! So far I have been amazed, but I'm going to give it some time before I'm convinced!!

 

[themickey]

Quote from marketsurfer:

What I called neo-Gann channel was an upper and lower line derived from a Gann wheel or square of 9--- yes , I own such an archaic device. Not a traditional Gann channel. Yes, in the right volatility regime--- break outs from an upper or lower support /resistance Line can be a successful method. I used it for years. surf

Thx, yes S/R levels are a traders edge, but strangely enough, something can stare us in the face and we pay no attention. I think one of the main issues traders face is they get side-tracked by unproven methods, don't take advantage of the obvious, not focused enough (half baked at numerous methods). Also, having a random approach to trading and thinking money management will save you will not work. Random entries is a fools idea to trading. Not saying you advocate this, but I hear it bandied around as just as good as any T/A method. Bollocks!

Anyhow Surf, I think you may be opening up a tad, this is a good journal and has so far gone 439 pages without the usual trolls, well done.

 

[themickey]

Just thought to add, a major Horizontal S/R line is not a line we should immediately jump onto for a buy/sell signal. Often these are points of indecision, takes a while to make up its mind and become areas of chop. You will lose money attempting to trade chop. There will be a range at the S/R level and one must trade above or below the range, not in the middle in the chop.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from themickey:

Just thought to add, a major Horizontal S/R line is not a line we should immediately jump onto for a buy/sell signal. Often these are points of indecision, takes a while to make up its mind and become areas of chop. You will lose money attempting to trade chop. There will be a range at the S/R level and one must trade above or below the range, not in the middle in the chop.

I have had a rule that I would try 5 times at each line break, and the line had to be broken by 3 minutes to trigger an entry. Each entry was joined with a stop point at the line.

surf

 

[themickey]

Quote from marketsurfer:

I have had a rule that I would try 5 times at each line break, and the line had to be broken by 3 minutes to trigger an entry. Each entry was joined with a stop point at the line.

surf

There are problems with these type rules, like MA's, they are kind of curve fitted, sometimes work, sometimes don't and they become 50/50 rules - random. Best discard as they are 'home made'.
That is, unless in your trading time frame period, this rule has a high % of winning, eg trading on 5 minute bars this rule works frequently.

Price action at S/R is not curve fitted on EOD bars, nearly in every instance you will see a reaction, however intraday it seems to fail frequently, well it does on what I trade.

Which brings us to another thing, every instrument has its own type behaviour, my rules on SPI would probably not work on Fx.

There are trading edges like S/R but backtesting is about the only way you can ascertain it will work on what you are trading.
Sounds like a cop out the line above but it's not, the road rules in America are not the same road rules in UK. The rules for trading gold may not apply when trading oil or a stock and intraday can behave differently from EOD.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from themickey:

There are problems with these type rules, like MA's, they are kind of curve fitted, sometimes work, sometimes don't and they become 50/50 rules - random. Best discard as they are 'home made'.
That is, unless in your trading time frame period, this rule has a high % of winning, eg trading on 5 minute bars this rule works frequently.

Price action at S/R is not curve fitted on EOD bars, nearly in every instance you will see a reaction, however intraday it seems to fail frequently, well it does on what I trade.

Which brings us to another thing, every instrument has its own type behaviour, my rules on SPI would probably not work on Fx.

There are trading edges like S/R but backtesting is about the only way you can ascertain it will work on what you are trading.
Sounds like a cop out the line above but it's not, the road rules in America are not the same road rules in UK. The rules for trading gold may not apply when trading oil or a stock and intraday can behave differently from EOD.

It all works at times. It depends on the ruling volatility regime of the moment in any of this noise trading. surf

 

[themickey]

Quote from marketsurfer:

It all works at times. It depends on the ruling volatility regime of the moment in any of this noise trading. surf

Correct, I may be able to drive a car to work each day and come home unscathed, but put me on the racetrack and I would be last and maybe smashed up as well. Horses for courses. Depends on your skill level, but to say T/A doesn't work because YOU can't get it to work is folly. Everyone's brain is wired differently. There are guys on ET who describe their trading style and I haven't a clue what they are saying. I don't get it. however I don't think to myself "those guys are clueless", but rather I say "I'm clueless".