Surf's Special Situation Journal

themickey · Feb 9, 2013

I've been posting on trading forums for +20 years and have found posting trades and journals is very time consuming, once you get on that band wagon it's hard to get off. There is the expectation and obligation to finish what has been started and usually there is no end to other posters wanting to debate with you etc, where one ends up nearly in the position of constantly needing to defend yourself.
Case in point Surf requesting cornix for further proof and live trades.
For those wishing to do journals and post live trades, my hat's off to them in respect, but no way would I start down that track.
Most of my time is spent working on another algo or trying to improve an existing one, I have no time for needing to prove anything.
Just thought to throw this in as not posting live trades is not in my opinion a weakness or avoidance of responsibility thing.

Anyhow below is a market driver
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trading-the-markets-great-rotation-2013-02-07?link=kiosk

sculptor66 · Feb 9, 2013

Quote from marketsurfer:

Excellent questions

The answer is no, Price Driver provides a bias on a scale from negative 10 to 10. Negative 10 is maximum bearishness- how far price will move,etc is unknown at the entry. I just have strong reasons to know a selloff is imminent. After I enter, I'll stay short until the Price Driver index starts moving higher indicating less bearishness. It has nothing to do with price at the time. It's tied to the speed of change in the PD index--/ obviously the faster the change, the sooner ill get out. Reverse for bullish trades.

I am dealing with the CAUSES of price change, rather than the EFFECT that is price change. This places the Price Driver trader ahead of the curve.

Surf

I would guess that the price driver index ist calculated by adding the directions (-x for down, +x for up, where x may vary with importance of the index component; an there can be, of course an inverse relationship) of select other markets and intermarket relationships... am I right?

HurricaneUS · Feb 9, 2013

Quote from sculptor66:

I would guess that the price driver index ist calculated by adding the directions (-x for down, +x for up, where x may vary with importance of the index component; an there can be, of course an inverse relationship) of select other markets and intermarket relationships... am I right?

nope...it's just a simple stochastic indicator

bwolinsky · Feb 9, 2013

The process of faking trades for the purpose of promoting black box event based systems..

Guess if it's got a big profit after a half hour I'd hold it.

sellindexvol66 · Feb 9, 2013

Quote from marketsurfer:

It's 100% my creation.

surf

Sorry to disappoint this crowd. Anyone who has an edge and half a brain would never discuss it online...ever.

Price driver nonsense either does not exist or does not work..simple. I know some guys who have not made it hope to find a holy grail online that bypasses work and experience...but if that existed the market would immediately cease to exist.

Surf is a pro writer though. Kudos

marketsurfer · Feb 9, 2013

Quote from sellindexvol66:

Sorry to disappoint this crowd. Anyone who has an edge and half a brain would never discuss it online...ever.

Price driver nonsense either does not exist or does not work..simple. I know some guys who have not made it hope to find a holy grail online that bypasses work and experience...but if that existed the market would immediately cease to exist.

Surf is a pro writer though. Kudos

Thanks! Your correct, unless the system is impossible for anyone to replicate. I have mentioned several of the components but never the weighting (hint) or all the components, how they are derived , and how the -10 to 10 bearish-bullish scale moves.
The basic outline is all I would talk about. surf

marketsurfer · Feb 9, 2013

Many folks have contacted me offline for why I don't believe in TA-- rather than say the same thing over and over again, here's a piece i wrote several years ago explaining

http://www.marketsurfer.com/?p=169

cornix · Feb 9, 2013

Quote from marketsurfer:

Many folks have contacted me offline for why I don't believe in TA-- rather than say the same thing over and over again, here's a piece i wrote several years ago explaining

http://www.marketsurfer.com/?p=169

Interesting (despite not original) points, Surf. I have one question to you in relation to them: you say there is no evidence of technical analysis "working". For what kinds of market analysis there is clear objective evidence that they "work"? For example are there proven studies that certain fundamentals cause certain price changes with quantified probability etc.

marketsurfer · Feb 9, 2013

Quote from cornix:

Interesting (despite not original) points, Surf. I have one question to you in relation to them: you say there is no evidence of technical analysis "working". For what kinds of market analysis there is clear objective evidence that they "work"? For example are there proven studies that certain fundamentals cause certain price changes with quantified probability etc.

#4 and #2 are original--I have never seen these previously-- have you, and where? thanks

There are no needs for studies that money flow moves stock prices res ipsa loquitur

An example for those who trade Forex--- the non farm payrolls when released move the U.S. dollar, as well as interest rate changes, central bank words, intervention----- this is a proven fact-- unlike the nonsense from "TA chart readers" ---lOL!

jack hershey · Feb 9, 2013

Quote from marketsurfer:

It's 100% my creation.

surf

Many people preceded you.

Then other people documented their earlier work and added to it.

Finally, A lot of platforms make this coded software available to anyone who wants to pick it up and drop it into their personal approaches.

In this thread you mention a term: "speed of increase" and you refer to pre market data (the order book, etc.).

It will be interesting to see when you announce all the other things in this general context (ball park).