Surf's Special Situation Journal

[marketsurfer]

Quote from sculptor66:

Surf, you are talking about 1 1/2 months of trading here. While these were very nice trades, that's hardly statistically significant.

Yes, I am aware of this--- However, we have done 1000's of replications and back tests over multiple time frames and market conditions indicating an actual statistical edge with the Price Driver Bias index in the DJIA and Oil. We are easing into the real money trades starting on Jan 1. 2013. So far, so good.

surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

He already showed that he doesn't understand the concept of statistical significance when he poo poo'ed Cornix's 50+ trades.

This shouldn't come as a surprise.

I have been posting real time before the fact calls since 2002 on the surf reports. It's not difficult for a random system to show positive results for a significant period of time. The TA crew should post live before the fact calls rather than leaning on "glory days" of 50 + winning trades LMAO! NO doubt that's a good run, but why was it ended? Why not keep posting the before the fact calls?

TA is very deceiving, up and to the point of resulting in self delusion.

surf

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from marketsurfer:

I have been posting real time before the fact calls since 2002 on the surf reports....

And this is one of my favorites: Marketsurfer's bold gold proclamation

 

[marketsurfer]

We are hit by an unbelievable amount of information on a daily basis. I like finding filters that help whittle down the onslaught of nonsense into usable bites of data. This quant mashup is just the ticket and is a real value add. Thank me later! surf

http://www.thewholestreet.com/quants/

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

Multiple time frames? That's what I use as well. Very cool!

Real money? So all of last year was play money?

Quote from marketsurfer:

Yes, I am aware of this--- However, we have done 1000's of replications and back tests over multiple time frames and market conditions indicating an actual statistical edge with the Price Driver Bias index in the DJIA and Oil. We are easing into the real money trades starting on Jan 1. 2013. So far, so good.

surf

 

[themickey]

Genuine question Surf, do you know approximately what win rate and risk to reward ratio you may expect and max drawdowns?
Is it really healthy or going to be marginal...?
Do you think you will have consistency, like is it easy to measure and calculate when to get in and out or do you fly by the seat of your pants here regarding timing?
Thx

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Multiple time frames? That's what I use as well. Very cool!

Real money? So all of last year was play money?

No, what I do has absolutely zero to do with what you do.

No, we have always had actual cash on the line with the posted trades. The testing is not recorded on the surf report.

Surf

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

Cool. Well lots of way to extract cash from the markets. Glad you found your niche.

Quote from marketsurfer:

No, what I do has absolutely zero to do with what you do.

No, we have always had actual cash on the line with the posted trades. The testing is not recorded on the surf report.

Surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from themickey:

Genuine question Surf, do you know approximately what win rate and risk to reward ratio you may expect and max drawdowns?
Is it really healthy or going to be marginal...?
Do you think you will have consistency, like is it easy to measure and calculate when to get in and out or do you fly by the seat of your pants here regarding timing?
Thx

Excellent questions

The answer is no, Price Driver provides a bias on a scale from negative 10 to 10. Negative 10 is maximum bearishness- how far price will move,etc is unknown at the entry. I just have strong reasons to know a selloff is imminent. After I enter, I'll stay short until the Price Driver index starts moving higher indicating less bearishness. It has nothing to do with price at the time. It's tied to the speed of change in the PD index--/ obviously the faster the change, the sooner ill get out. Reverse for bullish trades.

I am dealing with the CAUSES of price change, rather than the EFFECT that is price change. This places the Price Driver trader ahead of the curve.

Surf

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

Well, let's not get ahead of ourselves here. This is your contention, based on your own work. Time will tell if this becomes reality. A few trades is a pretty small sample size.

Good luck to you, nonetheless.

Quote from marketsurfer:


I am dealing with the CAUSES of price change, rather than the EFFECT that is price change. This places the Price Driver trader ahead of the curve.

Surf