Surf's Special Situation Journal

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Eyez:

I honestly do not understand the arguments here.

If using regression line is considered TA, and standard deviation on bollinger bands is considered TA, then in effect(ie. transitive property), math = TA

A trendline is also TA, as 2-points in space is a basic algebra problem. (a line, or a ray)


So, if math is TA, what is not TA? Did you use any kind of math to derive "price drivers" ?-- if so, you are using TA -- and thus, you don't believe in yourself.

TA relies on past prices to reach conclusions. Past price and past volume are the inputs---

Price Drivers are the factors that move price prior to it moving. We do not live in the past but rather anticipate the future with Price Drivers. We predict future price because that is the only place ( when directionally trading) profits exist. Profits do not exist on past price charts regardless of the nonsense of the TA brigade.

You are calculating the wrong things with TA math. Price is the result. Not the cause. We analyze the cause.

Math is also used heavily in astrology. Does my non belief in astrology equal a non belief in math?

 

[Eyez]

Quote from marketsurfer:

TA relies on past prices to reach conclusions. Past price and past volume are the inputs---

Price Drivers are the factors that move price prior to it moving. We do not live in the past but rather anticipate the future with Price Drivers. We predict future price because that is the only place ( when directionally trading) profits exist. Profits do not exist on past price charts regardless of the nonsense of the TA brigade.

You are calculating the wrong things with TA math. Price is the result. Not the cause. We analyze the cause.

Math is also used heavily in astrology. Does my non belief in astrology equal a non belief in math?

This is not a valid counter-argument. Considering, astrology is saying things relate because of some "mathematical" correlation. That's like me saying the number 2 means luck and the number 9 means bad things.

That's a qualitative association with math.

All TA is math (by definition), not all math is astrology. Nor is all astrology math.


"We do not live in the past but rather anticipate the future with Price Drivers. " isn't this what TA is in general? How current is if you are inputting factors prior to the move, aren't those factors in the past? (ie. if trying to anticipate move prior to move happening, how do you know the information was valid post move if you aren't looking at point T in the past where those inputs were placed) and by your own definition considered TA?


So your saying all management science is TA? -- a store owner trying to figure out how much inventory to load up on is a technical analyst by your definition as he/she is using past demand information to extrapolate the potential future demand.

 

[marketsurfer]

No, all TA is not math. Last I checked its looking at pretty charts and guessing where price will go next based on arcane tea leaf like logic.


Yes, price drivers are factors of the past---- however they occur prior to price moving and are the cause of price movement. Whereas, TA erroneously studies the effect ( price) and draws conclusions from the effect. This makes zero objective sense. However, price drivers focus on quantifying the CAUSES of price. See the difference? We have blown the lid off of traditional effect based TA and offered the logical alternative.

Welcome to the new age.

surf

 

[Eyez]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Yes, they are factors of the past---- however they occur prior to price moving and are the cause of price movement. Whereas, TA erroneously studies the effect ( price) and draws conclusions from the effect. This makes zero objective sense. However, price drivers focus on quantifying the CAUSES of price. See the difference? We have blown the lid off of traditional effect based TA and offered the logical alternative.

Welcome to the new age.

surf

No. I don't. Just sounds like your giving TA a different name. Kind of like me saying how the number 2 means luck. Or calling a Ford an Audi.

how do you ascertain the value of price drivers post-move without looking at the past? and hence, by looking at the past to ascertain value, your price drivers in effect become TA...

You should write something regarding how management science is just technical analysis. And that business' shouldn't use TA, they should start using "price drivers" (after they pay you a fee ofcourse).

Hey guys, I got a lambourghini for sale; asking $200K for it. (actually, it's just a pontiac fiero with a lambo kit) I swear it's not a pontiac.

 

[traitor786]

Eyez you make a good observation.

I have seen many people who claim this and use an indicator

firstly there can be more then one reason to enter and exit. An indicator can be simply a measuring tool.

But what about price it self? what is it indicating?

Just cause we make money off price does not mean that it is in control.

A moving average is an effect of price movement,
price movement is and effect of interest.
Interest is an effect of perception.

there are things deeper then price, looking ahead does not have to mean looking it to the future. it can be simply looking at why price moves.

Try to stick to your charts to simplify things and allow for exponential growth by reinvesting profits more often then one that follows perception or news. These lead. find the middle ground

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Eyez:

No. I don't. Just sounds like your giving TA a different name. Kind of like me saying how the number 2 means luck. Or calling a Ford an Audi.

how do you ascertain the value of price drivers post-move without looking at the past? and hence, by looking at the past to ascertain value, your price drivers in effect become TA...

You should write something regarding how management science is just technical analysis. And that business' shouldn't use TA, they should start using "price drivers" (after they pay you a fee ofcourse).

Hey guys, I got a lambourghini for sale; asking $200K for it. (actually, it's just a pontiac fiero with a lambo kit) I swear it's not a pontiac.

1. Define TA-- I use the definition from the MTA. Where is your definition from?

2. If you want to call analyzing Price Drivers TA, be my guest. Feel free to make up any definition you wish, that's common among the TA crew. TA is by definition the study of past price/volume. Price Drivers do not look at price or volume-- so how can it be TA? The crucial ingredients of TA are not used.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Surfers,

The Price Drivers have shifted to neutral. We are taking profits at 13825-- booking another 104 YM points. best, surf

Its better than you think.

This is a trader comment which takes into account the trend drivers (leading monitoring and analysis volume criteria, filters, formulae, rules and strategies.) All these actualities are working, as volume "forms", with 10 to 12 leading available data which has not yet become part of the historical record of the market variables.

For Thursday:

the open entry was short.

Then reversals occurred (which reflect market sentiment changes) on 5 min bars ( people know what I trade):

16, 21, 31, 43, 48, 54, 64, 70, and 75.

I exit just before the RTH margin changes to non RTH margin. I am all in (94% of capital).

As seen the cumulative compounded value of these profit segments are a multiple of the Daily ATR. Every 30 points percontract the capital is doubled. Friday sweeps to place cummulative profits above 5 times market capacity in position (110,000 share limit) and intermediate term trading (no dollar limit) of stocks.

 

[sculptor66]

I still don't get it why you guys are arguing over what works in trading and what not.

A successful trader should be thankful for every trader out there with a non-working approach to trading.

 

[HurricaneUS]

Quote from Eyez:

This is not a valid counter-argument. Considering, astrology is saying things relate because of some "mathematical" correlation. That's like me saying the number 2 means luck and the number 9 means bad things.

That's a qualitative association with math.

All TA is math (by definition), not all math is astrology. Nor is all astrology math.


"We do not live in the past but rather anticipate the future with Price Drivers. " isn't this what TA is in general? How current is if you are inputting factors prior to the move, aren't those factors in the past? (ie. if trying to anticipate move prior to move happening, how do you know the information was valid post move if you aren't looking at point T in the past where those inputs were placed) and by your own definition considered TA?


So your saying all management science is TA? -- a store owner trying to figure out how much inventory to load up on is a technical analyst by your definition as he/she is using past demand information to extrapolate the potential future demand.

you are aware that he's toying with you don't you?

now are you going to banter back and forth over the next 20 pages of what is and is not TA?...

I frankly could give a shit whether surf believes in TA or not...all that matters is whether I'm making money

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from sculptor66:

I still don't get it why you guys are arguing over what works in trading and what not.

A successful trader should be thankful for every trader out there with a non-working approach to trading.

Well said! With all these short term timing maestros on the surf report, I'm surprised the market can even exist!