Surf's Special Situation Journal

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Quote from Xspurt:

I believe TA is nothing more that luck. Cornix and I met about 6 yrs back and I trade live with him every day. He's been on a lucky winning streak for those 6 years now. I think his TA dice is loaded :)

On and off I've looked at surf's predictions over the same period and if performance and consistency is a platform to speak from, guess who should shut up and listen to whom? But if you're fishing, then the TA doesn't work mantra will never change.
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Yea, some lucky streaks are amazingly long! :D
 
Quote from daniel33:

You and I both know that's quite an ambiguous statement.

Trend where ?

If a small timeframe then it's changing almost constantly, it's fast change makes talking about it rather short lived, so why talk about it?

If a larger timeframe then it might be less important to say a scalper or daytrader.

If using multiple timeframes, trends colliding.

I can complicate it even more, but I think you get my point, suggesting to trade with the trend is a rather empty suggestion.

The rest of the post is well written and loaded with good suggestions as per your usual, but whenever I read the "Dont fight the trend and trend is your friend" posts I can't help to butt in :)
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This is the confusion and beauty of TA and understanding trends is top of the list of what teases the trader. First you have to break the code of how trends turn and evolve in a single time frame and then you will be a step closer to resolving the conflicts in multiple time frames.

The rules are the same for a sub 1 min trend as for a weekly chart and Donna is correct in what she states. But you are right - "the trend is your friend" is a hard nut to crack so it's more like "the trend is a lying, devious traitor" until you get to think like it does. Then you'll see that it tells you what its current and future intent is. It answers the why, where, when and how.
 
Quote from Xspurt:

...On and off I've looked at surf's predictions over the same period and if performance and consistency is a platform to speak from, guess who should shut up and listen to whom?...
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mmmmmh, yes agreed, and I've noticed in life, those who know the least shout the loudest.

The Surf journal has not been so much a journal as a pissing match, kind of like what you see in small man syndrome.
 
Quote from daniel33:

You and I both know that's quite an ambiguous statement.

Trend where ?

If a small timeframe then it's changing almost constantly, it's fast change makes talking about it rather short lived, so why talk about it?

If a larger timeframe then it might be less important to say a scalper or daytrader.

If using multiple timeframes, trends colliding.

I can complicate it even more, but I think you get my point, suggesting to trade with the trend is a rather empty suggestion.

The rest of the post is well written and loaded with good suggestions as per your usual, but whenever I read the "Dont fight the trend and trend is your friend" posts I can't help to butt in :)
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Look to a much larger timeframe than the timeframe in which your entry signal occurs to determine whether you're trading against the trend or not....So if you're trading a 1-minute chart for entry then determine the direction of prices on say a 30-minute or 60-minute chart to filter your trades

Determining direction can be as simple as locating whether the starting point of the trend on the higher timeframe occurs in the middle of your higher timeframe chart, beginning of the chart, or end of the chart to assess how old the trend is.....of course if you do it this way then make sure you use the same scaling for all of your charts for consistency
 
Quite simply, buyers and sellers behave in a cyclical manner in all timeframes. This market behaviour is apparent in any chart.

No need for annotation or MACD.
 
Thank you for your comments regarding trend determination, I was simply stating the ambiguity of phrases and concepts like "Trade with the trend" or "Trend is your friend"; I'm in no need of guidance, was just making an observation because the phrases are overused and abused.
 
Quote from Xspurt:

It's often 3 fractals but without multiple time frames that will remain a mystery. The 1 min, 2 min and 3 min all differ in structure and jumping from 1 min to 5 min leaves vital gaps in information.

These gaps are compounded when you're locked in the CW of linear time. This is basic TA 101 that linear time predictions have to fail hence the FTT in your channels.

Come on Jack, I'm giving you the clues... test it!
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Experts do not predict.

Since prediction is never used, statistics are NOT required either.

An expert uses market information to have a foundation. The foundation is surmounted by logical building blocks.

reread the posts I made in the thread named "volume". ther you see the OP has passed the irreversable point point of not being able to build his mind to have it become differentiated.

Your timeframes have a problem. The timeframes came from your mind. Consider making money using fees and commissions that come from contracts that you and others sign as a mutual agreement.

Testing to apply potential trading approaches has no value either. So, I do not test. Others who feel like it can test my approaches. They get answers that are not within their belief systems. Too bad for them.
 
Quote from cornix:

Hey Surf,

Thanks for mentioning me in your Twitter. I am glad you liked my posts somewhat. :)
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You got it brother. I truly do appreciate your contribution here---

surf
 
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