Surf's Special Situation Journal

[sellindexvol66]

Quote from atticus:

Show us your PNL.

Right, plus smurf too.. back up the talk..

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from sellindexvol66:

Right, plus smurf too.. back up the talk..

What talk? I lose a lot and make no claims. Every trade is posted here before the fact.

surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from cvds16:

In fact I agree with that Surf ... TA analysis works big time ... but I am just as much convinced that it can't be coded ... it's way too multidimensional ...

Thanks for the market call. Keep us posted. Very true-- only the naive and woefully inexperienced would think otherwise. But then again, we have folks that need 50k in opportunity costs paid before they can demonstrate their TA in a controlled setting posting here---- so who knows?

 

[cornix]

Surf, dare to answer how would you test TA pattern if presented with one?

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from cornixforex:

Surf, dare to answer how would you test TA pattern if presented with one?

Sure, I would have one of my quant friends test it. I don't have direct access to the data bases needed for proper testing. surf

Ps. Don't worry, they are academics with no interest in stealing your one objective pattern. LOL!

 

[cvds16]

I'm putting a stop on this at 1.3360 and learned another lesson in life allready ... I better stick to my intraday analysis ... this long term stuff only gets me stressed out and really isn't quite my game ....

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from cvds16:

I'm putting a stop on this at 1.3360 and learned another lesson in life allready ... I better stick to my intraday analysis ... this long term stuff only gets me stressed out and really isn't quite my game ....

Is this a failure of TA?

 

[cornix]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Sure, I would have one of my quant friends test it. I don't have direct access to the data bases needed for proper testing. surf

Ps. Don't worry, they are academics with no interest in stealing your one objective pattern. LOL!

No worries, just academic interest in testing approaches.

Do you know how your quant friends would test it? I am asking, because roots of "TA failure" reports may be laying there.

 

[cvds16]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Is this a failure of TA?

that question is still out surf, even though I got stopped out on this one ... I always told I am much better on short term tf's ... making a bold long term call sure was a mistake, that much I must admit ... it's really not my game ... so in that sense 'I' was wrong ...

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from cornixforex:

No worries, just academic interest in testing approaches.

Do you know how your quant friends would test it? I am asking, because roots of "TA failure" reports may be laying there.

When provided with a testable, objective definition-- and not garbage like "a long bar" ( do you know how bad that makes TA folks look when they say things like that?) it would be back tested against 10 plus years of data to determine if it actually has a statistical edge. This entire conversation is ridiculous to me as my associates have already tested 1000's of TA combinations over the long term and NOT ONE contained a profitable statistical edge--- ( remember, i am talking about the stock market and stock index futures) well, truth be told, one did, but only in the long term and the edge wasn't enough to cover the costs/commissions of the positions.