Quote from R. Raskolnikov:
To the overly curious:
I'm male, married and in my late 30's. Cue the paparazzi!
LOL! you should just come clean--- no more bluffing!
Surf's Special Situation Journal
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LOL! you should just come clean--- no more bluffing!
Uh, I just did.
Good post, NoDJ
Quote from R. Raskolnikov:
Hopefully the person(s) will chime in if they read this. Success rate being zero is pure baloney
We should give surf a proof.
I will give him an edge. With an edge capital is grown to the capacity of the market and then surf as the trader does not have to do articles on the CW any longer.
A trend ends. This is not done by TA just anyway is okay.
Then after the trend ends bars appear and complete, surf watches. He has the "P" on his platform as a highlite. The P is above a volume bar. It appears because surf has had a hedgefund programmer put it on his laptop.
The P appears whenever three consecutive bars show volume acceleration. But it is only used as a three bar trend beginning middle and end when a new trend is beginning as described for P. Not all P's that appear are traded. This is a long trade only.
A TA trader would use it by getting a trend end signal and just trade the next three bars of a long sentiment that begins after a prior short trend ends. BUT surf is NOT a TA trader.
Volume Bar 1 after the trend ends is NOT surf's entry. Neither is increasing volume bar 2.
Surf only enters when acceleration has been determined on volume bar 3 and he only holds as long as he is profitable or the end of the bar comes (with more profits being a result.)
If surf decides to hold longer on bar 3, there are variety of ways to do this with 100% certainty. These ways will only be presented to surf if he learns to do this TA trade. This trade can teach surf that prediction is not a requirement. He can also learn that probabilities are not needed or helpful in trading.
I assume he knows others. This trade is a go/nogo test for these others. If they can't get data on this trade, then they are nogo's.
Why won't this simple process take root here or anywhere else in surfs environment?
The reason is that it wrecks all of surf's pronouncements that come from his environment.
Why does this trade work? the trade works because trading costs on 1 contract are less than 1 tick change of price.
When I post my comments are not processed by surf. I am one of the few people he cannot refute successfully.
Correct, I analyze the end result of the actions.
Now, answer this question please: how do you think, big (really big I mean, say thousands or tens of thousands of ES contracts) orders are usually just thrown into the market all at once or are executed slowly in stages?
You are market professional, you should know how institutional traders usually operate.
You do realize what you are saying, right?
You can tell by looking only at a price chart whether or not the bars formed are one large player easing into a position or multiple smaller players? You must have mystical powers.
surf
I need to completely refute this using of statistical and scientific language in the wrong way. Couching pseudoscientific claims in this type of language is a an age old tactic of the mystics to provide legitimacy to their practices. I am sorry, but its true. Obviously, this has nothing to do whether or not you make money trading intuitively. You may, i have no way of knowing.
Odds can be quantified and tested-- what you do ( intuitive chart reading) can't be tested nor quantified therefore there is no way to determine odds.
If I am wrong, please show me the what you are testing and the formula to determine the odds.
We are holding YM longs on the way to 1000 points gains and holding HLF short awaiting meltdown.
surf
surf
I have to concur with surf here. When referring to a series of qualifying trades, and quantifying odds based on those trades, it may be misleading to some when you are the only person capable of qualifying those trades based on your own subjective research and experience. As long as one makes it clear that their system is not truly quantitative IE could not be codified or reverse engineered and is based on prior actions observed in the marketplace then there is no issue. That being said, blurring the lines between art and science isn't tough to do in this business, as many who try to automate find out. I've personally seen several people struggle to code their system only to find out that it does in fact have many more subjective elements than they imagined.
For the record, I'm not pro or anti TA, I just thought this was an interesting point.
Since I have a moment, Surf, here is an example of a trade I took today that fits the criteria below. Using the 1 and 5 min frames for this trade, I got short 148.27 at 11:35 on the SPY, stop/reverse at 148.37 (stop based on high of bar that triggered short entry). As you can see based on what happened next, I stop/reversed at 148.37 and the trade turned out to be an inflection point trade. I rode it up to 148.66 (closed trade at a little after 12:45) when my system said exit. The first day of trading after I posted the below and the mkt provided a good example. Thought I'd share.
Another reason I'm considering automation is that I want to also create baskets to trade my signals in stocks and other futs that show correlation with the S&P. As a single trader, I can only implement my strat on one, maybe two vehicles (SPY for now only since volatility is so low) but I know this is limiting. Automation will open up new doors I suppose.
Another reason I'm considering automation is that I want to also create baskets to trade my signals in stocks and other futs that show correlation with the S&P. As a single trader, I can only implement my strat on one, maybe two vehicles (SPY for now only since volatility is so low) but I know this is limiting. Automation will open up new doors I suppose.
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