Surf's Special Situation Journal

traitor786 · Jan 21, 2013

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

You CANNOT compare those that read the stars to make trading decisions vrs those who actually use MARKET DATA to make trading decisions. Apples and oranges.

why not.

Market data is data. You see and interpret. It is an orange to the market. This is seen as there are so many different ways to interpret.

You are fishing for an interpretation that fits and any interpretation that does not fit is discarded. You have over optimized from the get go when you selected ideas.

when you change small parameter you are careful not to optimize. but by selecting 3 ways to find an entry and not using the other 500 you have grossly over optimized. hence the need to change.

The data from the stars that are extracted do the same. there is an infinite amount of indicators.

Where the stars have an edge is that a system can be found that replicates the markets 90% (as it is infinite) fishing for it or optimizing is risky but, with so much data to choose from one can find a system that back tests to the tulip bubble.

Why does data have to be relative ? what is relative ? a CEO going through a divorce ? or a more leading indicator of his unhappy wife ?
or the wife bumping in to a handsome man at the dollar store ? Or maybe the magical night where the wife and her new friend lay staring at the stars?

I dont know maybe try fit the dollar store chart as a leading indicator to how the markets do. Im sure you can if you really try.

stocon · Jan 21, 2013

What are the Price Drivers you often refer to?

R. Raskolnikov · Jan 21, 2013

I'm not suggesting that one cannot make consistent money by using the stars. I don't know and have never done it but I don't dismiss techniques I'm unfamiliar with as worthless (like the OP does).

But, I believe that TA (price data, charts, volume etc etc) and star data trading are very DIFFERENT approaches and should not be grouped into the same category, as the OP did when he insulted TA by using star trading as an example (which he also dismisses).

Do you use any form of TA, whether it be proprietary (your personal concoction) or traditional? Or do you use inputs outside of mkt data to make your trading/investment decisions?

Quote from traitor786:

why not.

Market data is data. You see and interpret. It is an orange to the market. This is seen as there are so many different ways to interpret.

You are fishing for an interpretation that fits and any interpretation that does not fit is discarded. You have over optimized from the get go when you selected ideas.

when you change small parameter you are careful not to optimize. but by selecting 3 ways to find an entry and not using the other 500 you have grossly over optimized. hence the need to change.

The data from the stars that are extracted do the same. there is an infinite amount of indicators.

Where the stars have an edge is that a system can be found that replicates the markets 90% (as it is infinite) fishing for it or optimizing is risky but, with so much data to choose from one can find a system that back tests to the tulip bubble.

Why does data have to be relative ? what is relative ? a CEO going through a divorce ? or a more leading indicator of his unhappy wife ?
or the wife bumping in to a handsome man at the dollar store ? Or maybe the magical night where the wife and her new friend lay staring at the stars?

I dont know maybe try fit the dollar store chart as a leading indicator to how the markets do. Im sure you can if you really try.

cornix · Jan 21, 2013

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

I'm not suggesting that one cannot make consistent money by using the stars. I don't know and have never done it but I don't dismiss techniques I'm unfamiliar with as worthless (like the OP does).

But, I believe that TA (price data, charts, volume etc etc) and star data trading are very DIFFERENT approaches and should not be grouped into the same category, as the OP did when he insulted TA by using star trading as an example (which he also dismisses).

Do you use any form of TA, whether it be proprietary (your personal concoction) or traditional? Or do you use inputs outside of mkt data to make your trading/investment decisions?

I concur. If we continue the analogy, astrology is the form of fundamental analysis, because it deals with external causes of market moves while TA deals with the market itself.

marketsurfer · Jan 21, 2013

Quote from cornixforex:

I concur. If we continue the analogy, astrology is the form of fundamental analysis, because it deals with external causes of market moves while TA deals with the market itself.

What else causes market movement than external forces? The market doesn't move on its own. Looking at the result (ta) rather than the cause is illogical.

cornix · Jan 21, 2013

Quote from marketsurfer:

What else causes market movement than external forces? The market doesn't move on its own. Looking at the result (ta) rather than the cause is illogical.

No argument here. Of course external forces, which influence major players decisions ultimately drive the market. But I am speaking of analytical approaches here: analyzing external reasons (macro-economical picture etc.) directly vs. analyzing market participants actions (aka TA).

marketsurfer · Jan 21, 2013

Quote from cornixforex:

No argument here. Of course external forces, which influence major players decisions ultimately drive the market. But I am speaking of analytical approaches here: analyzing external reasons (macro-economical picture etc.) directly vs. analyzing market participants actions (aka TA).

You are only analyzing price with TA, the end result. Not the actions of the players-- this can be observed in the book leading up to the trade. After the trade is made, the action of the player is finished. How you can believe, with a straight face, that this influences the next move is beyond my reasoning ability.

Once again, I appreciate you clearly describing the fatal flaws of TA type approaches to the stock market.

surf

WS_MJH · Jan 21, 2013

Quote from marketsurfer:

You are only analyzing price with TA, the end result. Not the actions of the players-- this can be observed in the book leading up to the trade. After the trade is made, the action of the player is finished. How you can believe, with a straight face, that this influences the next move is beyond my reasoning ability.

Once again, I appreciate you clearly describing the fatal flaws of TA type approaches to the stock market.

surf

When you mean price drivers, you mean the bid/ask volume in futures and the DOM?

marketsurfer · Jan 21, 2013

Quote from WS_MJH:

When you mean price drivers, you mean the bid/ask volume in futures and the DOM?

yes, that is one Price Driver, the system combines and weighs 7 PD's that occur prior to price moving on a scale of bullish to bearish. 5 of them are fundamental. surf

WS_MJH · Jan 21, 2013

Quote from marketsurfer:

yes, that is one Price Driver, the system combines and weighs 7 PD's that occur prior to price moving on a scale of bullish to bearish. 5 of them are fundamental. surf

Ok, you use quite of bit of fundamental analysis. Makes sense. If it works for you, great. Haters gonna hate.