Surf's Special Situation Journal

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Quote from marketsurfer:

1.A PD bias weighting has nothing to do with price at the time-- any correlation you believe to see is spurious.
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Got it, thanks.


2. Is arch crawfords success, being ranked number 1 for years and years, empirical evidence that astrology works? i have worked in this business for over 20 years, I have never seen any evidence outside of claims that chart based TA has any edge

You are using the term odds wrong again-- odds can be quantified-- what pattern or series of price changes increase the odds that the next move or series will be in the same direction? Why can't this be shown statistically? Because if you are telling the truth about long term success, you are using something that cant be measured, intuition or whatever special powers to predict the future--- if you can do this, how can i argue with you??

surf

PS-- how are detailed records kept of patterns that do not have a universal definition? you are curve fitting mentally.
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Not familiar with Crawford so can't comment. Can sure say though, that many successful TA patterns have universal definition, can be statistically tested and proven to have significant edge, thus defining odds of certain price action after TA signal appears. Have no idea why you say all above can't be done.
 
Quote from cornixforex:

Got it, thanks.



Can sure say though, that many successful TA patterns have universal definition, can be statistically tested and proven to have significant edge, thus defining odds of certain price action after TA signal appears. Have no idea why you say all above can't be done.
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This is completely and unequivocally wrong.

Show me just one in a testable format.

surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Show me just one in a testable format.

surf
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You not even remotely disclose what are your "Price Driver" signals really based on, but ask others to explain you objective profitable pattern in details, correct? :D
 
Quote from cornixforex:

You not even remotely disclose what are your "Price Driver" signals really based on, but ask others to explain you objective profitable pattern in details, correct? :D
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I make no claims for the PD system--- watch it work, or not work on this journal. there is nothing to prove. You, on the other hand, made specific claims about TA, You need to prove them or retract them to maintain honesty.

Face it, you cant produce any pattern in a testable form despite your claims otherwise. This is typical TA user double talk. Seen it many times in the past.


<b>Can sure say though, that many successful TA patterns have universal definition, can be statistically tested and proven to have significant edge, thus defining odds of certain price action after TA signal appears.</b>

define JUST ONE, in a testable format-- I challenge you to back up your words. I have been thru this 100 times-- you simply can not.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

I make no claims for the PD system--- watch it work, or not work on this journal. there is nothing to prove. You, on the other hand, made specific claims about TA, You need to prove them or retract them to maintain honesty.

Face it, you cant produce any pattern in a testable form despite your claims otherwise. This is typical TA user double talk. Seen it many times in the past.


<b>Can sure say though, that many successful TA patterns have universal definition, can be statistically tested and proven to have significant edge, thus defining odds of certain price action after TA signal appears.</b>
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I know what I know and make claims about what I know. The other question is if I'm going to try and prove something to skeptics? What do I gain by doing so?
 
Quote from cornixforex:

I know what I know and make claims about what I know. The other question is if I'm going to try and prove something to skeptics? What do I gain by doing so?
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You can't even provide a :"universal, testable definition of any TA pattern" yet you expect this claim to be taken seriously in this business? You made the statement, you need to back it up or have it dismissed as rubbish. surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

You can't even provide a :"universal, testable definition of any TA pattern" yet you expect this claim to be taken seriously in this business?
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I don't (expect). :)

I sure can (provide).

But do I (wish) to provide it right now/here? :D

This business is about profits. Investors care less how you do that if you perform. Your own P&L cares even less so. :)
 
Quote from cornixforex:

I don't (expect). :)

I sure can (provide).

But do I (wish) to provide it right now/here? :D

This business is about profits. Investors care less how you do that if you perform. Your own P&L cares even less so. :)
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Back to using personal evidence as empirical proof, sorry it doesn't work. you said there are many patterns that can be defined and tested, why not show me one that just gives a consistent 51/50 odds of success-- surely this wouldn't be your edge. right?
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Back to using personal evidence as empirical proof, sorry it doesn't work. you said there are many patterns that can be defined and tested, why not show me one that just gives a consistent 51/50 odds of success-- surely this wouldn't be your edge. right?
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What do I gain by doing so?
 
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