Surf's Special Situation Journal

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Quote from macattack:

Believe me..........I highly doubt I would've seen the setups at they time they were actually happening; I am definitely talking in hindsight.

I believe NoDoji's trading results, but I sure as heck can't do what she can do right now.

That's why I was curious if she made 100 ticks or more during that time. I'd be happy to be up 20 ticks. I'd be happy to be up 20 ticks for the entire day. :)
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The thing that really messes with my mind is that I've probably been trying to trade longer than NoDoji, and where she is up 100 ticks, I'd be lucky to be up 20 or breakeven. I'd probably be down 20.

I've read all of her posts & I've tried to do what she does, but she has something that most people are missing. I'm just not sure what it is. I think I'll probably end up in a mental asylum if I don't figure it out.

I think she may be an alien..................or maybe even a truck driver. :)
 
Quote from macattack:

The thing that really messes with my mind is that I've probably been trying to trade longer than NoDoji, and where she is up 100 ticks, I'd be lucky to be up 20 or breakeven. I'd probably be down 20.

I've read all of her posts & I've tried to do what she does, but she has something that most people are missing. I'm just not sure what it is. I think I'll probably end up in a mental asylum if I don't figure it out.
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While at work, using a mobile device, trading futures for the first time, on a platform he never used before, not ever having discussed actual setups with me, FCX extracted 42 ticks in 80 minutes* and that includes a 5-tick error due to not understanding how a particular order worked. We discussed price action concepts a couple times, just concepts centering around a) support and resistance, b) trend, counter-trend, and range, and c) trend continuation off a smaller time frame; nothing about specific setups, nothing about whether to enter with a stop or limit or market order, where to place stops, or how to take profit.

Once you understand basic price action concepts, you have a foundation on which to build. I started with one core idea a couple months after I started trading oil live and now, two years and four months (or about 5000 hours of dedicated time) later I've expanded to six different core ideas that I trade off of.

Focus on one instrument and study the crap out of it for three years (I simmed it for months as well), and you'd be surprised at what's possible.

* I believe FCX either had a very lucky streak, or he's an alien, or possibly a truck driver :D
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Dude, i was a card carrying member of the MTA, was hired by a hedge fund manager to "teach" him TA--- until I saw the light that it simply does not provide an exploitable edge in the real world.
surf
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And let's review some recent huge winners who used their intuition, guts, and FUNDAMENTAL analysis to take home some big money:
1) John Paulson (3.7 billion in personal gains)
2) Michael Farmer (?? Millions from metals trading- Surf, I know that one hurts, but he did come back !)

TA works only in very short time-frames...hence the popularity and success of high frequency trading.
 
This turned into a truly hilarious thread. Started with "TA doesn't work" then evolved into "those who trade TA actually don't" then into "that's possible but impossible to grow from small account".... probably I forgot something else... right... "that's possible but impossible to make profits nearly every day"... Before saying "impossible" I'd just count probability of having a winning vs. losing day assuming one makes 30 trades with 1:1 RR and 66% probability of hitting the profit target.

Surf, you're cornered. :D
 
Quote from syswizard:


TA works only in very short time-frames...hence the popularity and success of high frequency trading.
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TA works just as good on larger time-frames.
 
Quote from tobbe:

Why would a stop loss degrade system performance?
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Seems obvious to me why a stop degrades system performance. Because it does what it is supposed to do, stop a trade going against you. If you don't have a stop then (if price goes against your postilion) you only have a paper loss, assuming you have enough to not get a margin call, and enough to trade other positions while your capital is tied up, we all know what a morale booster a paper loss is.

I can only assume that most trades that go against initial position, eventually come back and exceed entry price, eventually, hopefully., maybe, please, pretty please, I promise I will never do that again. That's the only way you could even consider trading without a stop. No thanks, I'll trade my puny retail account, put my stops in and know that I won't be invited to the next system trader's banquet.

Isn't that the idea why you only need enough capital to trade the system based on it's largest draw down in back testing?

Honestly not having a stop loss IMO, is nothing more than the buy and hold mentality.

Let's see I was bullish on NFLX back in February and bought at $120.00 and being true to my system and not wanting to degrade it's performance I didn't put a stop loss in. Feeling good now.
 
UPDATE ON THE JPY TRADE:

Stopped out at 79.67.... It did get as high as 79.98 before reversing and stopping me out...

Does that prove TA doesn't work...??? No... But we all know that it's completely unreliable... I was up 14 pips at 79.92 or about 1:1 R:R had I taken profit.

The "cup and handle" pattern did breakout but then it completely reversed in the middle of the breakout!
 
Quote from cornixforex:

It is truly hilarious how people blame their own failure on "TA". Like driving drunk and blaming accident on a car. :D
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TA isn't the car in this analogy... TA are the street signs guiding you along...! The "car" would be your trading platform... AND you say you're a psychologist...? :p

Saying that TA is UNRELIABLE is a fair assesment.
 
Quote from CoolTraderDude:

TA isn't the car in this analogy... TA are the street signs guiding you along...! The "car" would be your trading platform... AND you say you're a psychologist...? :p

Saying that TA is UNRELIABLE is a fair assesment.
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OK let it be street signs... What makes you think you interpret them correctly? What if they mean not what you think they do? :)
 
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