Surf's Special Situation Journal

[Xspurt]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Don't gloat until you take the combine. No, I have combined the PDs with the channel system--- as they are uncannily accurate in predicting large moves, just not direction. The channels should keep the trade directed correctly. The Apple short was the first trade using this new tactic and it was a winner. Surf

I haven't gone back to check but there is something in my memory that tells me that you had two trades using the PD + Channel method? One short that was hit by buying price drivers that stopped you out and then a second short protected by a stop loss (that I thought you said traders shouldn't use) that indeed won. I could be wrong but isn't the balance of that AAPL trade a minus?

Not that a minus this early in a new method means anything, but to be accurate it is the second trade that won - correct?

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Don't gloat until you take the combine.

I'm not.

No, I have combined the PDs with the channel system---

Channel? Sounds like TA to me.

as they are uncannily accurate in predicting large moves, just not direction...

Sounds like you should abandon directional trading, and just buy straddles.

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from Xspurt:

I haven't gone back to check but there is something in my memory that tells me that you had two trades using the PD + Channel method? One short that was hit by buying price drivers that stopped you out and then a second short protected by a stop loss (that I thought you said traders shouldn't use) that indeed won. I could be wrong but isn't the balance of that AAPL trade a minus?

Not that a minus this early in a new method means anything, but to be accurate it is the second trade that won - correct?

I think you're right. But then smurf has a history of this sort of thing.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Xspurt:

I haven't gone back to check but there is something in my memory that tells me that you had two trades using the PD + Channel method? One short that was hit by buying price drivers that stopped you out and then a second short protected by a stop loss (that I thought you said traders shouldn't use) that indeed won. I could be wrong but isn't the balance of that AAPL trade a minus?

Not that a minus this early in a new method means anything, but to be accurate it is the second trade that won - correct?

It was 2 entries--- the system allows for 3 entries at each trigger point prior to revaluation of the numbers. Technically, it was 2 trades but I consider each of the 3 tries as one trade.

suf

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from cornixforex:

Yes, they change. But stay the same too. Interesting phenomenon isn't it?

Again, theoretically you are correct,speaking as an outsider. The market changes to protect itself against being beat by the ever more clever types trying to take its money. Practioners understand this thus constantly change to keep one up on the marketplace. that is the ones with longevity. every regime shift leaves the losers broke or out of the biz. the gambler types will keep trying what has worked untill they are our of resources. the smarter ones will quit and find another game to play and the smartest will remain one step ahead of the market mistress . It all looks the same from the perspective of those looking in. Those in the game understand what I am saying. surf

I really don't get what you are saying when applied to how markets really work.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curse_of_knowledge

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from tracer619:

I think AAPL goes up next week. ie it will close higher next Fri 4pm than it did this Fri 4pm.a dip on Monday morning is a BUY.

Thanks for the idea-- i am out and flat with zero signals for next week on Apple. surf

 

[cornix]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Again, theoretically you are correct,speaking as an outsider. The market changes to protect itself against being beat by the ever more clever types trying to take its money. Practioners understand this thus constantly change to keep one up on the marketplace. that is the ones with longevity. every regime shift leaves the losers broke or out of the biz. the gambler types will keep trying what has worked untill they are our of resources. the smarter ones will quit and find another game to play and the smartest will remain one step ahead of the market mistress . It all looks the same from the perspective of those looking in. Those in the game understand what I am saying. surf

No offense Surf, but you are the outsider compared to me, NoD or Xspurt. Why? Because we trade for a living, this is our business. Your business is writing about trading and occasional (by your own admission hobby-level) demo or very small amount live trading.

Of course we always adapt, but my point is: when you every day trade the market, you evolve together with it and may not even notice this gradual, evolutional process of changing. If you ask me, indeed my trading style quite evolved over the last years, but when you are a practitioner (speaking in your terms) it's so natural you unlikely notice it as a "change". When the market really changes (e.g. typical action is distorted by some extra-ordinary event or a holiday) you notice it immediately and it is somewhat of an edge, weirdly acting market gives you a clue something's "wrong" (not in negative sense of the word, but in the sense of unusual action and likely higher risk associated with it)...

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from cornixforex:

No offense Surf, but you are the outsider compared to me, NoD or Xspurt. Why? Because we trade for a living, this is our business. Your business is writing about trading and occasional (by your own admission hobby-level) demo or very small amount live trading.

Of course we always adapt, but my point is: when you every day trade the market, you evolve together with it and may not even notice this gradual, evolutional process of changing. If you ask me, indeed my trading style quite evolved over the last years, but when you are a practitioner (speaking in your terms) it's so natural you unlikely notice it as a "change". When the market really changes (e.g. typical action is distorted by some extra-ordinary event or a holiday) you notice it immediately and it is somewhat of an edge, weirdly acting market gives you a clue something's "wrong" (not in negative sense of the word, but in the sense of unusual action and likely higher risk associated with it)...

Man, I couldn't ask for better material for a possible future book. You are jesting right? You are claiming that you are part of the market, morphing and changing with it----- do you even realize how deluded that sounds? This is the second best claim I have ever read on elite, the best one had something to do with a noble prize nomination in tech analysis-- that ended up in Covel's book where I am named checked, by the way---- please keep posting, i need the material!

surf

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

There is a big difference between hobby trader and professional trader. Some just don't understand this.

Quote from cornixforex:

No offense Surf, but you are the outsider compared to me, NoD or Xspurt. Why? Because we trade for a living, this is our business. Your business is writing about trading and occasional (by your own admission hobby-level) demo or very small amount live trading.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

There is a big difference between hobby trader and professional trader. Some just don't understand this.

Do you make 100% of your income from trading without any other source, wealthy spouse or wealth from another source, or prop firm backing? If not, you are a hobby trader also.